FEB. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tough, war-like language from both Azerbaijani and Armenian officials over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh is not uncommon but the warning from Azerbaijan’s defence minister, Safar Abiyev, that his country is preparing to retake the region should not be ignored.

Over the last year tension has risen around Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked mountainous region. International peace negotiators appear to be making little progress and analysts say another war is not unimaginable.

Every week gunfire shatters a shaky ceasefire imposed over Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994 after 22,000-25,000 people had died and 1m had fled fighting that started in 1992. Analysts say skirmishes killed around 30 soldiers last year.

Mutual distrust and animosity between Azerbaijan and Armenia have also triggered an arms race. Azerbaijan, in particular has boosted its defence spending by about 12 times since 2000.

And the implications of another seemingly localised war in Nagorno-Karabakh are likely to be far wider. The complex series of allegiances and alliances in the South Caucasus could drag neighbours Iran, Turkey and Russia into a conflict.

In a 20-page report published on Feb. 8, the influential Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group summed up what failing to prevent a war would mean. “The fighting would be intense and drawn out, affect large swathes of territory, endanger many civilians and destroy critical infrastructure,” it wrote.

FEB. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Media reports quoted Azerbaijan’s defence minister Safar Abiyev as saying Azerbaijan is preparing to retake the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Top Azerbaijani officials have previously threatened war against Armenia but tension around Nagorno-Karabakh has risen recently.