JUNE 6 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The death of Abkhazia’s President, Sergey Bagapsh, on May 29 removed a steadying influence on the volatile province and forces both Russia and Georgia to re-consider their strategy towards it.

A surprise visit by Russian PM Vladimir Putin to Bagapsh’s funeral in Abkhazia five days later underlined just how important control of the breakaway Georgian region is to Russia.

Abkhazia has been a de facto independent state since a war against Georgia after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union. Russia recognised Abkhazia — and South Ossetia, another rebel Georgian region — as an independent state in 2008 after it also fought Georgia in a brief war.

Bagapsh was considered a competent technocrat capable of uniting different factions and able to balance Russia’s interests — geo-political, military, economic — in the region with more nationalistic local politicians.

He had been president of Abkhazia since 2005. According to the constitution, Abkhazia now has three months to hold a presidential election.

There are three main candidates to replace Bagapsh: vice-President Aleksandr Ankvab, PM Sergey Shamba and Raul Khadjimba, Bagapsh’s former opponent. A power vacuum in Abkhazia could pull in Georgia which still hopes to reclaim the region and South Ossetia.

This tension between Russia and Georgia over Abkhazia is never far away. On June 3 Georgia said it had arrested two residents of Abkhazia for trying to plant a bomb on behalf of Russia.

ENDS