JULY 6 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek and Chinese companies signed deals worth $100m at an investment forum, media reported quoting Uzbekistan’s ministry of foreign economic relations. Among these was a deal between Uzbeklegprom, an Uzbek state-run company, and Chinese textile companies. The deals show China’s increasing reach in Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 142, published on July 8 2013)
JULY 3 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh government has a decent poker face, at least when it comes to bluffing its intentions on energy deals.
For months Kazakh officials had said that they would not use their pre-emptive right to block a deal between ConocoPhillips, a US energy firm, and India’s ONGC Videsh.
ConocoPhillips had decided that it wanted to cash in its 8.4% stake in the Kashagan oil field in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea. In November last year it announced a deal to sell this stake to ONGC Videsh for $5.5b.
Kazakhstan holds the right to buy stakes in its energy fields if a foreign company wants to exit, but earlier this year government officials said they would not buy the ConocoPhillips stake. Instead, they said, they would decide between allowing India into Kashagan or letting China, an increasingly close economic partner, into the project.
China’s apparent interest now looks like a decoy.
On July 3, Lyazzat Kiinov, chairman of Kazakh state energy company Kazmunaigas, said the company would buy the 8.4% stake in Kashagan.
The deal is important for two main reasons.
It’s perhaps a coming of age for Kazakhstan which wants to retain more ownership over its energy resources. It’s also a blow for India’s energy policy. India had staked a lot on expanding into the Caspian Sea and securing a major foothold in Central Asia’s energy sector. It now has to look elsewhere.
Kazakhstan wants to become a top energy producer.
Before the sale of ConocoPhillip’s stake, the consortium developing Kashagan consisted of ENI (Italy), Total (France), ExxonMobil (US), Shell (Britain) and Kazmunaigas all with a 16.81% stake. Inpex (Japan) also owns a 7.56% stake.
After this deal, Kazakhstan will be the main shareholder.
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(News report from Issue No. 142, published on July 8 2013)
JUNE 30 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — David Cameron became the first British PM to visit Kazakhstan when he flew into Atyrau near the Caspian Sea coast at the start of a 2-day trip. Mr Cameron’s visit will be a huge PR boost for Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Tony Blair, a former British PM, is an adviser to Mr Nazarbayev.
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(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 24 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Highlighting Turkmenistan’s increasing importance as an energy supplier, Israel sent its first ambassador to Ashgabat, media reported. The arrival of Ruevan Daniel, a former agent of the Israeli intelligence services Mossad, as Israel’s ambassador may also sour Turkmenistan’s relations with neighbour Iran.
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(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 25 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan may host another round of nuclear talks between Iran and a US-led bloc this year, Iranian media reported. Almaty has already hosted two rounds of talks between Iran and the US-led bloc this year. A third round would further increase the kudos it has earned for holding the meetings relatively seamlessly.
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(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 25 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s national security service arrested three people and accused them of spying for Azerbaijan, media reported. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that two of the people arrested were Armenian army officers, will raise tension between the two arch-enemies.
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(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 30 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Whatever the deals signed between British PM David Cameron and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan will emerge as a winner.
Persuading Mr Cameron to visit Kazakhstan is a PR coup for Mr Nazarbayev and will have other countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus looking on enviously.
Mr Cameron is the first serving British PM to visit Kazakhstan, although, as one of Mr Nazarbayev’s advisers, ex-PM Tony Blair is a relatively regular visitor to Astana.
Kazakhstan has spent deeply on a small army of Western lobbyists, including the well-connected London-based Portland, and tasked them with improving its image.
Most of Europe’s leaders had already made the journey east to Astana. The EU, France and Germany have develop strong ties with Kazakhstan. Britain, though, had stood aside.
It was only a matter of time, though, before this changed.
Wealthy Kazakhs increasingly look to London as a fulcrum for their international business and lifestyle ambitions. As well as multiple business links, the Kazakh elite are sending their children to top English boarding schools and the government has been sponsoring a new generation of lawyers and civil servants through British universities.
Travel connections between London and Almaty, Kazakhstan’s financial centre, have also improved this year when British Airways finally opening a direct flight from Heathrow.
For Mr Cameron, the trip is trickier. He will want to develop economic ties with Kazakhstan but will have to tread carefully around the inevitable human rights questions to avoid upsetting his hosts. Britain also needs help from Kazakhstan to pull its military kit out of Afghanistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 29 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — US pop diva Jennifer Lopez sung at a private concert for Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. Her set included a rendition of Happy Birthday. Western media outlets criticised Ms Lopez for agreeing to travel to Turkmenistan, which has a poor human rights record, for the concert.
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(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 28 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — What has felt like a titanic battle between two competing proposals to link a gas transit route from the Caspian Sea to Europe is finally over.
At a press conference on June 28, the consortium of energy companies developing the Shah Deniz gas field in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea said they had chosen the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to send their gas to Europe.
TAP route will carry the gas across Turkey, Greece and Albania and then under the Adriatic Sea to Italy. It is headed by Norway’s Statoil, Switzerland’s AXPO and E.ON Ruhrgas of Germany.
TAP’s victory means defeat for Nabucco West, its main rival headed by Austria’s OMV.
The decision, though, was hardly a surprise. While Nabucco West’s bid has slowly lost momentum its fate was sealed earlier this month when SOCAR, the Azerbaijani energy company, bought a 66% stake in DESFA, Greece’s natural gas distributor.
Now TAP has to be built. It will run for 520km and cost $2.2b. Once it’s up and running, Europe’s reliance on Russia for gas supplies will be reduced and Azerbaijan’s importance to Europe will be increased,
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)
JUNE 25 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia will start sending military aid and kit to Kyrgyzstan from 2014, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported quoting Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister. Accepting Russian military aid highlights a shift in Kyrgyzstan’s allegiance from the US. The US is closing its air base outside Bishkek next year.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 141, published on July 1 2013)