Tag Archives: international relations

Ukraine looks for oil from Azerbaijan

SEPT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan may be about to play an unforeseen, but important, role in Ukraine’s civil war.

Virtually unnoticed by the media, Ukraine’s coal and energy minister, Yuriy Proban, visited Baku for an unofficial meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart. He was, basically, asking for help from Azerbaijan.

Ukraine’s economy is a mess. It had been reliant on coal mining from the Donbass region but with the civil war centred on Donbass, it is now limping along.

It had also earned a substantial fee for being a transit country for oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe. That too has dried up, meaning that it both has to generate cash from elsewhere and also buy in oil and petrol.

According to analysts, only about 20% of Ukraine’s refining capacity is currently in use.

And this where Azerbaijan, could in theory, come in.

Mr Probin said that he was in Baku partially to ask for Azerbaijan to halp make up the shortfall.

“We could quite quickly increase the processed amounts if Azerbaijan has the available resources,” Russian news agency ITAR-Tass quoted him as saying, referring to the volumes of refined oil produced in Ukraine.

For Azerbaijan, there are two main issues to consider before potentially increasing supplies to Ukraine. Firstly, how to get any oil shipments there, possibly via Georgia’s Black Sea port of Batumi, and secondly how would Russia react? Azerbaijan-Russia relations are already strained. Supplying Ukraine with oil, may strain them further.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

Greece bans denial of Armenia genocide

SEPT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Greece’s parliament ratified a bill that banned denial of an alleged genocide by Turkish Ottoman forces on Armenians a century ago.

This elevates recognition of the alleged genocide to a crime to denying it.

The vote, which was close, is a success for Armenian lobbyists who have been campaigning across the world for countries to recognise their plight from Turkey towards the end of the First World War as genocide.

Turkey has always denied the charge and instead said Armenians were killed in the chaotic aftermath of the War.

Greece and Armenia are natural allies against Turkey. Both sides have their animosities with their bigger, more powerful neighbour and it is probably unsurprising that Greece has joined a small group in making denial of the so-called Armenian genocide a crime.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

Kazakhstan and Russia to sign military deal

SEPT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian president Vladimir Putin and Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev are expected to sign a deal soon that will allow the movement of arms between the two countries more easily, media reported. The agreement is designed to increase arms trade between Kazakhstan and Russia as well as deepen military integration.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

EU pledges Armenia aid

SEPT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Union has promised the give around $200m to Armenia by 2017 to help it develop its private sector, media reported. The package is part of a wider tranche of aid earmarked for counties surrounding the EU, including Azerbaijan and Belarus. Armenia has opted for closer.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

Uzbek President visists Dushanbe

SEPT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek president Islam Karimov is due in Dushanbe for the first time since 2008 for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The two-day SCO meeting is due to begin on Sept. 11. This meeting is particularly important because of strained relations between the neighbours.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

Tajikistan prepares to host SCO

SEPT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The 13th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be held in Dushanbe on Sept. 11 – 12.

Russia and China lead the SCO, a group that has regional security and economic development at its core. The other members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The summit is expected to focus on deepening security ties and the possibility of expanding the organisation to include Afghanistan, India, Mongolia and Pakistan by next year. On Aug. 24, the SCO held its largest ever joint military drills to date in China’s Inner Mongolia province.

With Russia accused of arming rebels in Ukraine and the US-led NATO planning to enlarge by including Australia as a member, enlargement of the SCO would come at a sensitive time. As the only regional organisation to include both Russia and China, the SCO’s profile has grown over the years. Moscow and Beijing appear, though, to have different views on the future of the group.

In Bishkek this summer, China promoted its Silk Road Economic belt concept. This concept, focused on infrastructure investment and trade protection, seems to run counter to Russia’s own Eurasian integration efforts via the protectionist, China-exclusive Eurasian Economic Union.

The Kremlin has also reportedly persistently blocked the development of an SCO bank, preferring the organisation to focus on security matters, where it is closer to parity with China.

Both are said to be cautious towards any expansion that might dilute their respective influences, but acknowledge the need for the SCO to grow in order to relevant.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

French navy visits Georgia

SEPT. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A French warship docked at the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi for joint-exercises with Georgia forces, another show of support for the country from a NATO member. This is the third visit to Georgia by a French naval ship this year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)

Kazakh president question the Eurasian Economic Union

AUG. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) is still a few months from coming into existence and yet Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is already threatening to quit the Russia-led alliance.

In an interview with a local TV station, Mr Nazarbayev said he wouldn’t be afraid of quitting the EaEU if the group was damaging the national interests.

“Our independence for which our forefathers fought is our greatest asset,” he said. “First, we will never sacrifice our independence. Second, we will do everything to defend it.”

Mr Nazarbayev’s comments are important as they come against the backdrop of fighting in Ukraine, where Russia is accused of supporting pro-separatist forces. Kazakh officials have become increasingly nervous that the Russia dominated north of the country may look to secede with Russia’s support.

Although economics and business interests weren’t mentioned by My Nazarbayev, there was also a clear underlying message.

Kazakhstan’s increased association with Russia has hurt it economically. Russia’s economy is so important for Central Asia that if it is impinged, this economic malaise is felt further down the chain.

The Eurasian Economic Union will come into place in 2015 and will be a direct descendent of the current Customs Union. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are members Customs Union. Kyrgyzstan and of the Armenia plan to join the group in the next few months.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Tajik police detained Russians

AUG. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Police in Tajikistan detained two Russian soldiers for the suspected murder of a Tajik taxi driver in Dushanbe, media reported. Russia maintains a major military base, its largest overseas base, in the Pamir Mountains. If the soldiers are formally accused of killing the taxi driver, it could dampen important bilateral relations.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Erdogan visits Azerbaijan

SEPT. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Newly elected Turkish president, Tayyip Erdogan, travelled to Azerbaijan on a two-day trip to meet with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, a key ally. It was Mr Erdogan’s second trip abroad as president, underlining the importance of the Turkey-Azerbaijan axis.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)