OCT. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia may block trucks and trains carrying food from the EU and Norway to Kazakhstan from travelling across it territory because of an import ban. Russia has banned produce from the EU and Norway in retaliation for sanctions imposed by the West.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
OCT. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan may officially be neutral but it is still discussing regional security issues with NATO.
NATO’s liaison officer for Central Asia Alexander Vinnikov met with Turkmen officials to discuss various bilateral security options, media reported. This was the second major security meeting held by Turkmenistan in October. Earlier in the month President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov met with Uzbek President Islam Karimov to discuss cooperation.
The main worry for Turkmenistan is the growing Taliban threat along its border with Afghanistan. The Taliban has increased their activities, triggering the Turkmen military to bolster its defences.
It’s also concerned about a re-galvanised Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU emerged in the 1990s and had targeted Uzbekistan. In the 2000s it joined the Taliban fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan and this year claimed responsibility for an attack on Karachi airport. More recently, the IMU has publicly declared its support for the so-called Islamic State extremist group which is fighting in Syria and Iraq.
If the IMU did become a major threat to Central Asian states once again, Turkmenistan, with all its gas riches and long border with Afghanistan, could well be in its sights.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
NOV. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia and Georgia are building a €300m electrical line between the two countries, Armenian energy minister Ara Simonyan told a cabinet meeting. The power line will improve the Georgian and Armenian electricity grid and help solidify the countries’ trade relations.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
OCT. 31 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iran said it had reached a deal with indebted Tajikistan to restructure ownership at the Sangtuda-2 Hydropower plant(HPP) plant built and operated in the Central Asian state by the Iranian company Sangob.
The new deal extends the period of Iran’s ownership of the facility by a further two years to 2029, a condition reportedly necessary because of a $40m bill that Tajikistan’s troubled state energy Barqi Tojik firm owes the plant.
Although details of the deal remain shrouded in secrecy, the importance of this agreement is that Tajikistan is having to agree to relinquish ownership of some of its core assets to cover various debts.
Tajik news agency Asia-Plus quoted an unnamed source as saying the deal was actually signed back in September. In March this year, the 100 megawatt plant was briefly shut down, suggesting a dispute between the sides.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
NOV. 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkish president Recep Erdogan was due to visit Ashgabat on Nov. 6 for a two-day visit, media reported, his first to Central Asia since switching from being PM to the presidency in August. Mr Erdogan’s visit to Turkmenistan highlights just how important Turkmenistan has become as a global energy supplier.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
NOV. 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Although Armenia has agreed to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, currently called the Customs Union, in 2015, the EU approved a 140m – 170m euros tranche of aid. The aid will be used to bolster the private sector, the justice sector and reform government institutions.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
BISHKEK/Kyrgyzstan, NOV 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — It would seem to be a done deal. Despite parliamentary opposition from an unlikely cast of nationalists and liberals — as well as serious concerns on the street — Kyrgyzstan appears to be primed to join Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015.
And, of course, Armenia will accede on the same day.
But accession will be problematic for many Krygyz. The Customs Union, from which the Eurasian Economic Union will emerge, mandates higher tariffs on imports from third countries. China’s share of Kyrgyzstan’s import pie is 55%, dwarfing Russia and Kazakhstan’s combined share of 25%.
Prices for goods from cars to household items will go up significantly. Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev has ceded that inflation is likely to jump in the short term after joining the Eurasian Economic Union.
Such price hikes would be hard to swallow anywhere; in a poor country like Kyrgyzstan, they will be punitive. Many people in Bishkek are afraid and everyone from taxi drivers to professionals, is quick to share their concerns.
One Bishkek-based foreign national in the NGO sector underscored this analysis. “Many fear that the lifeblood of Kyrgyzstan’s economy, cheap goods ranging from cars to shower curtains to raw materials imported from China, will either stop flowing due to newly-imposed tariffs or will dramatically rise in price,” he said, preferring to remain anonymous.
Of course, Russia and Kyrgyzstan are bound in many ways. As many as 500,000 Kyrgyz citizens work in Russia, and Russian news media is widely watched in Kyrgyzstan.
There are, of course, silver linings to Kyrgyzstan’s accession. Kyrgyz citizens working in other EEU countries will not need to register with the police for stays of less than 90 nights. Currently, a Kyrgyz citizen staying longer than five nights is compelled to register.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
NOV. 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan has agreed to export electricity to Kyrgyzstan to help ease its impending power problems. The deal is likely to be finalised later this week when the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan meet. Kyrgyzstan has said low reservoir levels means an electricity shortage this winter.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
OCT. 31 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Germany has agreed a deal with Uzbekistan to keep open an air base in the south of the country, media reported. According to German media, a helicopter crash a few days
before the current lease ran out at the end of October complicated the deal to extend the lease for the base which Germany took over in 2001 in the aftermath of the attack on New York by Al Qaeda and the NATO invasion of Afghanistan.
The base is important for several reasons.
After the withdrawal of the US military from their base outside Bishkek, the German base in Uzbekistan will now be NATO’s only full time base in the region. The French air force use the airport at Dushanbe but they share many of the facilities with civilian aircraft.
Uzbekistan is also an important transit country for NATO which is planning on shifting most of its kit out of Afghanistan through Uzbekistan and Russia.
For Uzbekistan, the German base is also something of a bulwark against the threat of Al Qaeda and Taliban across the border in Afghanistan.
Neither Uzbek nor German officials gave any details on the lease extension deal. Media reported that Germany stations about 300 soldiers at the base. Details of a 2011 deal showed that it paid 16m euros a year to lease the base.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)
OCT. 31 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – France’s President Francois Hollande will travel to Astana on Dec. 5 for a two day visit, the French embassy in Kazakhstan said. France and Kazakhstan have developed close economic ties. Mr Hollande’s predecessor Nikolas Sarkozy visited Astana a handful of times.
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(News report from Issue No. 207, published on Nov. 5 2014)