Tag Archives: inflation

Cognac sales fall in Armenia

JUNE 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The impact of sanctions on Russia is hitting all the economies of the South Caucasus and Central Asia but none more so than Armenia.

Armenia is particularly reliant on Russia for both financial support and as a market for its export. Last month, the Armenian Central Bank said it would cut interest rates for the third time this year to a four year low to try and curb falling inflation.

The latest inflation numbers show just how much work the Central Bank needs to do to prop up the economy. Armenia’s statistics agency said that inflation for the first half of the year was 4%, at the bottom end of its range.

But even this figure hides the really worrying data. Average prices in June fell 1.8% against May.

For more evidence of Russia’s faltering economy hitting the more outlying regions of the former Soviet Union, cognac is as good a place to look as any other. Armenian cognac is famous around the former Soviet Union and Russia is its biggest export market.

The latest data showed that cognac production fell for the first five months of May by 11.1% to just over 5.5m litres compared to the same period in 2013.

Although no official explanation has been given, the message is still fairly clear.

“In the first quarter of 2014 Armenia exported to Russia half the amount of cognac compared with the the same reporting period in 2013,” an Armenian business website reported. “They [Russian cognac importers] are in an unstable financial situation and do not know what will the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)

Tajikistan’s meat price rises

JULY 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – President Emomali Rakhmon and key figures in his regime have criticised an “artificial” spike in the price of meat during the holy month of Ramadan.

As Ramadan began, Tajik media reported a jump in the price of a kilo of meat from $6-7 to $8-9. Other products saw smaller increases. Last Ramadan saw similar jumps, suggesting collusion in the country’s urban markets, where costs are highest.

Mr Rakhmon’s attack on the meat cartels should be understood less as a defence of religion — an embarrassing video of him dancing drunk at his son’s wedding became an internet sensation when it was leaked in May 2013 — and more as sensitivity over price changes that could precipitate instability. GDP is expected to grow by 7% this year, but inflation, at 7.7% for the first half of this year, is more than keeping up.

“Prices for petrol are lower than they have been in recent years, there is enough feed for the animals and the price of meat should not be rising,” said Mr Rakhmon.

The Mayor of Dushanbe, Mahmadsaid Ubaidulloev, backed Mr Rakhmon’s stance emphasising the need to punish “shameless” butchers working out of the capital’s main bazaars.

Food assumes a special importance during the month of Ramadan when daytime fasting gives way to night time gorging. The Day of Eid holiday after the fasting period is associated with elaborate feasts.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)

Doctors’ salaries to rise in Kazakhstan

JUNE 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Doctors and nurses will receive a 28% salary rise next year, media quoted health minister Salidat Kairbekova as saying. Medical workers have long complained that they are underpaid, especially since a 20% devaluation of the tenge this year. Nurses in Kazakhstan are currently paid $436/month; doctors $620/month.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 190, published on June 25 2014)

Bread price rises in Kazakh city

JUNE 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The price of a loaf of bread has increased in Pavlodar, north Kazakhstan, to 60 tenge from 47 tenge, media reported. The price rise is just the latest in Kazakhstan. Creeping inflation, triggered by supply line problems and utility price rises, threaten to cause social tension.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 190, published on June 25 2014)

Inflation rising in Kyrgyzstan

JUNE 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kyrgyzstan will almost certainly double this year to around 8%, Tolkun Abdygulov, head of the Central Bank, said. Increasing inflation could agitate people in Kyrgyzstan. Mr Abdygulov also said that the Central Bank had spent $198m trying to prop up the Kyrgyz national currency.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 189, published on June 18 2014)

Potato prices rise in Kazakhstan

JUNE 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The price of potatoes in Kazakhstan has roughly doubled because of a shortage, media reported.This is important because food price spikes can generate discontent. Earlier this month, bread price increased in south Kazakhstan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 189, published on June 18 2014)

Transport price rises in Uzbek city

JUNE 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The price of tickets on Tashkent’s bus, tram, trolleybus and metro systems increased by 20% on June 15 because of a rise in petrol prices, media reported. Petrol prices have been rising across Uzbekistan, frustrating locals. The Uzbek government sets petrol prices.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 189, published on June 18 2014)

Bread prices spike in southern Kazakh city

JUNE 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bread prices in Shymkent increased by around a third overnight to 50 tenge ($0.25) a loaf from 35 tenge, media reported. This is the second bread price spike in south Kazakhstan this year and it could spark protests. Regional government officials blamed bakeries for the price increase.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 188, published on June 11 2014)

Inflation slows in Georgia

JUNE 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) -Annualised inflation in Georgia slipped back to 2.4% in May, its slowest rate this year, the national statistics agency reported. Compared to April, average prices dropped by 0.3%. Food prices dropped 1.7%. Georgia’s Central Bank is concerned about a generally slowing economy.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)

Armenia to raise electricity prices

JUNE 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s government is considering increasing electricity prices for the second year running.

Ara Simonyan, deputy minister for energy, made the omission after questions from parliamentarians who were trying to find out whether rumours of a price increase had any substance.

“The electricity tariffs are not frozen in Armenia and shall be reviewed from time to time. There is no certain decision at the moment,” he said.

Last year the state’s body for regulating electricity prices raised the cost of a kilowatt hour to 38 drams from 30 drams. Now, media has reported, the government is considering putting up prices by another 20% to around 45 drams.

This is important because rising utility prices stirs anger.

Armenians have already vented their frustration this year against proposed changes to the pension system, triggering the downfall of one government. The new government has said that it will look again at the proposed changes which would have meant that people have to put 5% of their income towards their state pension.

Mr Simonyan said hydroelectric stations were unusually dry last year meaning that less electricity was generated and that this meant prices had to rise.

Regardless, if the government does take the decision to increase electricity prices, it could generate public resentment.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)