MAY 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF weighed into the debate surrounding the tenge when it said the Kazakh Central Bank had enough cash to defend the currency against a sudden devaluation. The Central Bank has been under increased pressure to follow neighbours and devalue its currency.
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(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)
MAY 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Constitutional Court ruled that loans taken out in US dollars before the 30% devaluation of the Azerbaijani manat in February have to be repaid in full. Borrowers had hoped the Court would agree for debt to be repaid in manat at the lower rate.
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(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)
MAY 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Consumer prices in Armenia rose by 5% in the first four months of the year, media reported quoting the National Statistics Agency. This rise represented a steady, but not alarming, price inflation.
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(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)
APRIL 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s Central Bank said it would keep its key interest rate at 9% because the economy was set to hit its inflation target. In January the Central Bank raised its interest rate by 1%. Uzbekistan’s main currency exchange exists on the black market but the statement gives insight into the Central Bank.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
MAY 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Salaries have risen by nearly 10% since the beginning of the year in Turkmenistan, official media reported quoting the Turkmen finance ministry.
This piece of data is important for two main reasons. Firstly, it is a rare piece of data from Turkmenistan’s government on prices and inflation. Secondly, it shows the probable impact of the devaluation by 30% of Turkmenistan’s manta currency on Jan. 1.
Turkmenistan, like other countries in the region, has been struggling to cope with the fall in global energy prices and the downturn in Russia’s economy that has slashed around 50% off the value of its rouble currency.
Both issues have pressured Central Asian economies and Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedobv ordered the Central Bank to cut the value of the manat for the first time in seven years.
Typically, currency devaluations in Central Asia have triggered inflation and, although not officially confirmed, this appears to be the case in Turkmenistan.
The Turkmen finance ministry said salaries had risen by 9.5% in the first three months of the year. It didn’t give any more information.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
MAY 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan has increased the price of electricity it charges its citizens by 7.4%, media reported, the second price rise in the last six months. Prices for basic utilities in Uzbekistan have been rising steadily.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
APRIL 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A move by Tajikistan’s government to ban exchange booths from dealing in currencies has pushed currency trading into the black market and reduced the value of the Tajik somoni further, Eurasianet reported. The somoni has lost around 17% of its value this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Georgia will hit 5% by end-2015, Central Bank chief Giorgi Kadagidze told Bloomberg. Mr Kadagidze said the devaluing lari was the main reason for the predicted inflation rise. Official statistics said annualised inflation measured 2.6% in March.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alcohol prices in Georgia have increased by 10% over the past year, the national statistics agency said.
Alongside the rising price of food (3.7%) and healthcare (6%) the cost increase in Alcohol is a major driver of overall inflation. Annualised inflation for March measured 2.6%, up from 1.3% in April.
Analysts blame a fall in the value of the lari currency for this price rise but new taxes slapped on alcohol from March 1 have also driven up prices.
The government increased tax on beer by 50% and on hard liquor by 100%. It has said the tax will bring in an extra 100m lari ($45m) and harmonise Georgia’s tax laws with the EU.
And for now, it appears, thirsty consumers and bar owners in Tbilisi are shouldering the price rises.
Cory Greenberg, owner of Dive Bar in Tbilisi said distributors wanted more for a litre of beer but he has promised to keep prices steady.
“Not so much for charity, but because it is smart,” he said. “Let the others raise their prices and business will come to us.”
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
MARCH 24 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sent a warning to all Central Asian economies, and in particular to Tajikistan, in its Asian Development Outlook report.
Landlocked and dependent on remittances from migrant workers, Tajikistan is particularly vulnerable to the present economic crisis, the ADB said.
The ADB said Tajikistan is expected to experience a deceleration in its GDP growth. This had averaged 9% between 2010-14 but will fall to 5%.
“The decline in remittances and the traditional exports of aluminum and cotton slowed growth in 2014 and inflation worsened to 6.1%,” it said.
The ADB is also expecting rampant inflation and a further devaluation of the somoni currency by 6.5%.
Remittances, mostly from Tajik workers in Russia, represent roughly half of its GDP. The rouble crisis has affected both the value of those transfers and the capacity of these workers to retain their jobs. The ADB also said that new legislation for migrant workers in Russia will hit Tajikistan’s earnings.
“Remittances will likely contract further in 2015 as new regulations require that migrants to the Russian Federation have Russian language proficiency, as well as medical tests and health insurance that are estimated to cost about $500 per Tajik migrant,” it said.
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(News report from Issue No. 224, published on March 25 2015)