NOV. 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s parliament reappointed Temir Sariyev as the country’s PM, one month after an election won by President Almazbek Atamabayev’s Social Democrats. Mr Sariyev will head the coalition government. He has been PM since May 2015.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked Kairat Kelimbetov as head of the Central Bank, two years after he was handed the job.
He promoted 39-year-old Daniyar Akishev, a former deputy head of the Central Bank and his personal economic adviser, to take over from Mr Kelimbetov.
Under Mr Kelimbetov’s watch a combination of low oil prices and a recession in Russia has battered Kazakhstan’s economy. The tenge currency has lost around half its value since Feb. 2014.
Mr Nazarbayev said that he had lost confidence in Mr Kelimbetov. “The lack of confidence in the economy and the national currency — the tenge — should not be allowed to continue,” he said in a statement on his website. “It’s important to work to fix this poor performance.”
The Kazakh Central Bank has lost credibility over the past couple of years. It has flip-flopped on monetary policy and has spent billions of US dollars propping up its currency before defaulting first in Feb. 2014 and then in August this year.
On each occasion, events have appeared to wrong-foot Mr Kelimbetov.
In 2014, he admitted at a press conference after the devaluation that he hadn’t expected it to happen. In August he said that the tenge had moved to a free float against the US dollar before presiding over several more interventions to prop up its strength.
But news that he had been sacked failed to halt the slide in the value of the tenge. By Friday, Nov. 6, it had touched an all-time low against the US dollar of 310/$1.
Inflation data for October presented Mr Nazarbayev and his advisers with more bad news. Pushed up by the devaluation in August, inflation for the year to end-October measured over 9%.
And the disorganisation surrounding the Central Bank also appeared to continue. Shortly after it released a statement saying it would no longer spend millions of US dollars propping up the tenge, the Central Bank cancelled its monthly interest rate meeting without giving a reason or setting a new date.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
NOV. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Daniyar Akishev’s promotion to head the Kazakh Central Bank may have taken observers by surprise but to those who know the 39-year-old, it is a job he has been groomed for.
Mr Akishev is a veteran of the Central Bank, where he worked in various positions from 1996 to 2014 before moving to the Akorda as economic adviser to President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
In 2007 Mr Akishev was rumoured to be in pole-position for taking on the role of new chief of the financial regulator.
Instead has was named deputy head of the Central Bank, a position he held for seven years, under three different bosses.
In particular, Central Bank insiders said he achieved professional maturity under Grigori Marchenko, a respected liberal economist, who often clashed with Mr Nazarbayev on economic policies.
There have been wobbles, though, in Mr Akishev’s rise to the top. In December 2008, ominously, he said the economic situation was ideal for Kazakhstan.
“The Central Bank has no problems with the exchange rate of the tenge, quite the contrary,” he told RIA Novosti in an interview.
Two months later, the Bank devalued the tenge by 19%.
Media quoted some local analysts as saying that Mr Akishev lacks independence because of his young age and his lack of political authority. But Mr Akishev is the same age as Mr Marchenko was when he was named head of the Central Bank for the first time in 1999 and is five years older than Oraz Dzhandosov was, when he became Central Bank chief in 1996.
Mr Akishev’s predecessor, Kairat Kelimbetov, who held the job for two years during which the tenge lost half its value, had a different profile and no background at the Central Bank.
Mr Akishev might have accepted possibly the toughest job in Kazakhstan, but he is also one of the few people in the country with the experience and background to take it on.
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(News report from Issue No. 255, published on Nov. 6 2015)
OCT. 27 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratcheting up tension between Georgia’s PM and President, former PM and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili said in a TV interview that he made a mistake selecting Giorgi Margvelashvili as his presidential candidate in an election in 2013.
Mr Ivanishvili’s comments came shortly after President Margvelashvili met with several senior public figures, including an opposition leader and the powerful head of the Georgian Orthodox Church to discuss Georgia’s worsening political climate and a clampdown on opposition broadcaster Rustavi 2.
“The President’s remarks are completely irresponsible,” Mr Ivanishvili said of Mr Margvelashvili. “People who make such statements, want to justify the United National Movement’s actions. Those who make such statements, support UNM.”
The UNM is the party of former president Mikheil Saakashvili.
Although not officially in office any more, Mr Ivanishvili bankrolls the Georgian Dream ruling coalition and is considered the kingpin of Georgian politics. PM Irakli Garibashvili is very much his protege while President Margvelashvili is considered an increasing irritation.
Ghia Nodia, a political professor at Ilia State University and an opponent of Georgian Dream, said Mr Ivanishvili’s remarks were dangerous.
“This obsession with UNM and the inability to think in a nuanced manner are toxic and show a hidden complex. It is sad that he is unable to realise this,” he said.
Mr Margvelashvili, a former education minister, was regarded as having little political ambition before being put forward as a presidential candidate by Mr Ivanishvili in 2013. Most observers said he was supposed to act as a puppet. Instead he has become a thorn in side of Mr Ivanishvili.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, signed a five-year loan agreement for up to $1.5b to help fund its purchase of a 8.4% stake in the Kashagan oil field. Kazmunaigas, Kazakhstan’s state-owned energy company, agreed earlier this year to sell half its 16.81% stake in Kashagan to Samruk–Kazyna. The manoeuvre is considered a mechanism to help Kazmunaigas raise funds during this period of depressed oil prices.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s government and Tahir Group, which bought the country’s electricity networks last month, said that they will subsidise electricity prices until the end of July 2016. Earlier this year thousands of Armenians protested against proposed electricity price rises.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Perhaps with potential gas supplies to Europe in mind, Turkmenistan opened a shop in Tbilisi selling various national produce. Turkmenistan is exploring the potential of supplying the EU with gas. Georgia hosts a gas pipeline running west from the Caspian Sea.
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(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)
OCT. 18/20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev sacked National Security Minister Eldar Mahmudov two days before police arrested seven other senior officials and accused them of abuse of office.
The move surprised analysts of Azerbaijan’s murky political scene as Mr Mahmudov had been considered a close ally of Mr Aliyev.
He had held the position as the powerful National Security Minister for 11 years and no reason was given for his dismissal. Mr Aliyev had handed him the position of National Security Minister within a year of taking over as president from his father.
Although Mr Mahmudov has not been arrested, the Azerbaijani Prosecutor-General opened criminal cases into his seven officials for abuse of office.
“Investigative operations have raised suspicions about a group of ministry officials abusing service powers, illegally intervening in the activities of entrepreneurs in violation of the law on entrepreneurship, and violating the judicially and legally protected interests of different individuals,” it said in a statement.
Human rights groups and opposition activists have previously accused Mr Aliyev of undermining his opponents by accusing them of corruption.
The arrests and the sacking of Mr Mahmudov, whether they are linked to corruption or not, add a degree of instability to Azerbaijan, already rocked by the imprisonment of journalists and opposition activists.
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(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)
OCT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan released official results for its Oct. 4 parliamentary election that cemented the Social Democrat’s (SDK) grip on power. The SDK, the party of President Almazbek Atambayev, won 38 seats, up from 26 in 2010. Second was Respublika-Ata Jurt with 28 seats. The Kyrgyzstan party won 18 seats, Onuugu- Progress 13 seats, Bir Bol 12 seats and Ata-Meken 11 seats.
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(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct.16 2015)
OCT. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – On Oct. 4, Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary election marked by significant improvements in the country’s democratic development.
The elections have demonstrated the viability of Kyrgyzstan’s constitution adopted in 2010 that delegated more powers to the parliament and prevents the emergence of autocratic political power. Six political parties out of a total of 14 were able to pass the national and regional threshold, adding an important element of political plurality.
The elections are significant for three main reasons.
First, despite earlier skepticism, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), led by President Almazbek Atambayev gained only an estimated 38 seats out of total 120. This demonstrates that the president was unable to gain wide support despite his overwhelming influence over state media and the public sector.
Along with SDPK, the new parliament includes Respublika- Ata-Jurt bloc, Kyrgyzstan, Onuguu, Bir Bol and Ata-Meken parties.
Second, competing political parties tried to arrange their party lists to ensure both popularity and professionalism of their top members. As a result, the new parliament will include a greater number of powerful individuals better able to articulate their respective parties’ agendas. Greater professionalism in parliament can in turn boost the quality of political debates.
Finally, despite multiple cases of election fraud at voting booths and controversy surrounding a rushed collection of biometric data ahead of the elections, the electoral process was a progression towards greater transparency and accountability among political parties.
The government actively tried to eliminate fraud, while parties reported their campaign spending.
Televised debates featured representatives of competing parties who sought to distinguish themselves with creative policy solutions to pressing issues.
The new parliament will inevitably have a strong minority coalition either led by Respublika- Ata-Jurt block or will be composed of smaller parties aligning against SDPK.
But regardless of who will end up in the ruling coalition, the process of coalition formation is likely to be highly contentious and fraught with difficulties.
By Erica Marat, Assistant Professor at the College of International Security Affairs of the National Defense University, Washington DC
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(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)