JULY 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — John Kerry’s visit to Georgia on Wednesday was the first visit by a US Secretary of State to the South Caucasus in four years. And, importantly, the visit was tied not to the region as a whole, but to a NATO summit that Mr Kerry will attend in Poland today, July 8.
Mr Kerry has only visited our patch once, in November 2015, when he toured all five Central Asian states.
This compares to the frequent visits of his predecessor and now presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who visited the Central Asia and South Caucasus region four times, perhaps because of a stronger US interest in Afghanistan and the need to show support to South Caucasus countries over their relationship with Russia and Europe.
President Barack Obama’s second term, which started in 2013, has been marked by a slow disengagement from the region. This included giving up the Manas air base near Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, in mid-2014, once the main jumping off point for forces heading to Afghanistan but not needed once US engagement dropped off. In July 2015, the State Department also awarded jailed Kyrgyzstani human rights defender Azimzhan Askarov a human rights prize, prompting an official complaint from Kyrgyzstan.
The NATO-driven engagement in Georgia also waned, especially after President Mikhail Saakashvili lost power in 2013. Georgia is now possibly the furthest it’s ever been from joining the military alliance.
US diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan have also worsened, after President Ilham Aliyev’s re-election in 2013 and the increasingly harsh crackdown on political opposition and media freedom, including expelling the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from Baku.
And Mr Kerry’s demeanor has also betrayed lack of interest. Soon after his appointment, in Feb. 2013, he referred to Kyrgyzstan as “Kyrzakhstan” at a press conference. Both the US diplomatic attitude and resource allocation show that it is losing ground in Central Asia and the South Caucasus to Russia, China and Iran, who have proved able to pay for the soft power in cash, investing in infrastructure, financial and energy projects.