NOV. 3 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia and Iran agreed to drop visa requirements for their nationals and to introduce a direct air link between Tbilisi and Tehran. Iran has been trying to boost relations with the South Caucasus in the face of tightening UN sanctions promoted by the US.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
NOV. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Since Mikheil Saakashvili became Georgia’s president in 2004, the US has considered Georgia its most reliable ally in the South Caucasus.
But this year Georgia, perhaps worried by US President Barack Obama’s drive to mend ties with Russia which it fought in a 2008 war, has steadily improved relations with one of the US’ biggest enemies — Iran.
Iran has also been on a determined charm offensive in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Facing increasing international isolation over its nuclear development programme, Iran has reached out to its former Soviet neighbours — especially Azerbaijan and Tajikistan — and visits regularly for talks on trade and cultural affairs.
On Nov. 3, Iran’s foreign finister Manouchehr Mottaki visited Tbilisi. Alongside improving air links between Tehran and Tbilisi and dropping visa requirements, Iran will open up a consulate in the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi, a favoured holiday destination for Iranians. Iran already pays Georgia for electricity supplies and, importantly for Georgia, has refused to recognise the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
This budding friendship is likely to irritate the US which suspects Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. It has already expressed displeasure at Iranian overtures in the South Caucasus.
On Oct. 19, a few days after Iran’s defence minister visited Azerbaijan, the US sent a senior Treasury Department official to Baku to warn Azerbaijan against improving ties with Tehran.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
NOV. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Two Armenian men pleaded guilty of smuggling highly-enriched uranium into Georgia. Georgia arrested the men in March, the third time in seven years Georgia has caught uranium smugglers. Officials said the men planned to sell the uranium on to a foreign agent. Tests showed the uranium was 90% enriched.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
NOV. 5 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s government confirmed it had detained 13 people spying for Russia, including four Russian nationals. A senior
intelligence official told news agencies six of the detained were pilots and one was a navy radio operator. Georgia made the detentions in October. Russia has called it a provocation.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 29 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A source in Georgia’s security service told Reuters it had arrested 20 Georgian citizens for spying for Russia. Government officials declined to confirm or deny the report. Georgia and Russia have been involved in a number of spy rows over recent years which have soured relations.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 18 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia withdrew its forces from a town in Georgia it had occupied since a war in 2008. News agencies quoted a Georgian spokesman saying Georgia’s forces had moved into Perevi, outside the breakaway region of South Ossetia, after Russian soldiers voluntarily withdrew.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 15 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s parliament gave its final approval to constitutional changes which shift power away from the president to the PM. The changes will come into affect when President Mikheil Saakashvili leaves office in 2013 after his second and final term. Opponents have called the changes undemocratic.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 13 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia started a visa-free entry regime for citizens of Russia’s north Caucasus. They are allowed to stay in Georgia without a visa for 90 days. Georgia said it decided to waive the visa requirements to boost trade across the Caucasus mountains. Russia called it a provocation.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)