JUNE 4 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen state media quoted President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov saying Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 14.5% between January and May compared to the same period in 2010, Reuters reported. Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves. It has sought out more customers this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 43, published on June 6 2011)
FEB. 18 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan will increase its defence budget by 17% to $1.4b in 2011, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said. According to the World Bank’s latest data, in 2009 Kazakhstan spent 1.2% of its GDP on military spending.
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(News report from Issue No. 28, published on Feb. 21 2011)
FEB. 14 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – In 2010 Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 7% and its trade surplus almost doubled to $29.5b, its national statistics office said. The statistics office also said that for the first time China was the biggest buyer of Kazakhstan’s exports with 17.1% of the total.
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(News report from Issue No. 27, published on Feb. 14 2011)
FEB. 7 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Toronto-based Centerra Gold increased proven and probable gold estimates at its Kumtor gold mine in Kyrgyzstan by 24%. It also said the lifespan of the mine, vital for Kyrgyzstan’s economy, had lengthened by two years to 2021. In 2009, Kumtor accounted for a quarter of Kyrgyzstan’s total industrial output.
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(News report from Issue No. 26, published on Feb. 7 2011)
JAN. 24 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow by 4-5% in 2011 against an earlier forecast rise of 3.1%, media quoted economy minister Zhanar Aitzhanova as saying. Inflation in Turkmenistan was 4.8% in 2010, Reuters quoted the state statistics agency as saying.
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(News report from Issue No. 24, published on Jan. 24 2011)
DEC. 23 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s raised its sovereign foreign currency rating on Kazakhstan to BBB from BBB-. It said the upgrade reflected Kazakhstan’s rebound from the global recession. Ratings service Moody’s has already upgraded Kazakhstan to Baa2. Fitch retains a BBB-rating.
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(News report from Issue No. 21, published on Jan. 4 2011)
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DEC. 26 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenian think tank The Civilitas Foundation said 2011 would be a difficult year economically for Armenia. “Armenia’s economic growth will remain anaemic. Despite moderate global growth, there will still be lagging effects on Armenia’s economy,” it wrote in its annual report.
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(News report from Issue No. 21, published on Jan. 4 2011)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 18 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a rare economic forecast, Turkmenistan’s
government said its economy would grow by 7.5% in 2010 compared to 6.1% last year. Boosted by revenues from gas exports Turkmen government statistics have shown sharp growth in the past few years.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fuelled by oil and gas exports, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by over 800% between 2000 and 2009. Its defence spending nearly, but not quite, kept up. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that over the same period, Azerbaijan’s defence budget grew by 500%.
But in June this year, Azerbaijan said it would boost defence spending in 2010 by 30% and now finance minister Samir Sharifov has said that in 2011 it will rise by nearly 90% to $3.13b.
SIPRI said that in 2000 Azerbaijan spent $251m on defence. By 2011, then, its annual defence spending will have increased by more than 1200% since 2000, outstripping economic growth.
In terms of government spending, Mr Sharifov said in 2011 Azerbaijan will spend nearly 1/5 on defence. As a proportion of its GDP it will be around 6.5%. The world’s top spenders spend up to 8% of their annual GDP on defence.
But if Mr Sharifov was explicit on the numbers, he was less explicit on how the extra cash would be spent. He said that half of it would go on buying new equipment directly and the rest on special projects. Azerbaijan’s main military concern is tension with Armenia around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan and Armenia are still officially at war.
Armenia-backed forces have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since a ceasefire in 1994 after a war in which around 30,000 people died. Soldiers from both sides still die each year in skirmishes around the mountainous region and the EU has warned the situation could deteriorate.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)