BISHKEK, MAY 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A senior analyst questioned whether Kyrgyzstan will be able to hit its obligations for the CASA-1000 project that aims to supply Pakistan and Afghanistan with electricity generated by Tajik and Kyrgyz hydropower stations.
Most of the electricity needed for the CASA-1000 project is set to be produced by Tajikistan but Kyrgyzstan still has an important role to play. The problem is that its infrastructure and ability to ramp up output appears increasingly fragile.
Alexander Knyazev, political scientist, member of Russian Geographical Society and expert on Central Asia was downbeat about Kyrgyzstan’s prospects of playing a significant role in CASA-1000.
“Even in the long-term, this project has no prospects to me as it is not based on Kyrgyzstan’s and Tajikistan’s real capacities. The refurbishment and modernisation of Bishkek and Toktogul power plants require funds, which Kyrgyzstan does not have,” he told the Bulletin.
“Moreover, Pakistan is insisting on year-round delivery, whereas exports can only be seasonal.”
Mr Knyazev’s warning will worry international policymakers. The World Bank is funding most of the $1.2b cost of the project which the US has said is a major part of its north- south new Silk Road.
At the end of last year Kyrgyzstan’s biggest hyrdopower station at Toktogul broke down and a few weeks later Russia pulled out of a $2b project to build a new dam and hydropower station because a recession linked to the collapse in oil prices have heavily dented its spending power.
Construction on the CASA-1000 project was officially started this month.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 282, published on May 27 2016)