JAN. 4 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s president, extended a state-of-emergency by 26 days in Zhanaozen, the town near the Caspian Sea at the centre of rioting last month that killed 16 people. The state-of-emergency had been set to end on Jan. 5. It now ends on Jan. 31 and falls over a parliamentary election planned for Jan. 15.
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(News report from Issue No. 71, published on Jan. 5 2012)
DEC. 10 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Political instability from a disputed Nov. 27 presidential election continues to stalk the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia.
After 10 days of protests the disqualified winner of the election Alla Dzhioyeva, a former education minister, agreed to call off further demonstrations.
In the deal Eduard Kokoity resigned as president on Dec. 10 and Ms Dzhioyeva will be allowed to challenge the Kremlin-backed candidate Anatoly Bibilov, the emergencies minister, in an election re-run in March. PM Vadim Brotsev will become the interim president.
Ms Dzhioyeva had shocked the Kremlin by winning around 56% of the vote in a second round run-off against Mr Bibilov. Both support close ties with Moscow but Ms Dzhioyeva ran a vigorous campaign against corruption while Mr Bibilov’s campaign appeared lacklustre and complacent.
A few days after the election, though, South Ossetia’s central election commission annulled the vote and banned Ms Dzhioyeva from a re-run for apparently bribing voters. She denied this.
South Ossetia, a mountainous sliver of land of 70,000 people, is awash with weapons and violence is never far below the surface. Since a 2008 war with Georgia, Russia has recognised the independence of South Ossetia and the other Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia.
Politicians in Georgia have likened the in-fighting to two squabbling mafia groups.
But social and political tension in South Ossetia and Abkhazia matters. It can spread easily and warm up one of the South Caucasus’ so-called frozen conflicts.
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(News report from Issue No. 69, published on Dec. 14 2011)
DEC. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia will raise taxes to 25% from 20% for people earning over $5,250 per month in a 2012 budget which aims to reduce the national deficit and increase spending, local media reported. Detractors say tax increases will hit small and medium-sized businesses. Armenia holds elections in 2012.
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(News report from Issue No. 69, published on Dec. 14 2011)
DEC. 5 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – A disputed parliamentary election in Russia on Dec. 4 triggered unprecedented anti-government street demonstrations in Russian cities, protests which will have worried leaders in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
The people of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have strong historical, business, family and political ties with Russia and what happens there matters.
Politics in Kazakhstan is similarly aligned to Russia and the country is confronting growing pains. President Nursultan Nazarbayev also has to deal with a parliamentary election on Jan. 15.
Although Mr Nazarbayev’s position is far more secure than his Russian counterparts’ he faces lingering issues over his succession policy and commitment to genuine democracy. The compliant Kazakh media has steered away from covering the Russia protests in detail but Mr Nazarbayev certainly wouldn’t want them to linger.
In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the media is even more tightly controlled and the impact of the anti-government protests in Moscow will be softer but, again, if they are prolonged they will start to worry their leaders.
In the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan is most prone to an impact from street demonstrations in Russia. Its police force stamped out anti-government protests during the first half of the year and demonstrations in Russia could embolden protesters again.
It is premature to talk of a Slavic Spring in Russia but there is an air of change and this attitude could start to drip into other former Soviet states.
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(News report from Issue No. 68, published on Dec. 8 2011)
DEC. 5 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s Senate voted to cut the presidential term to five years from seven years in a move that means President Islam Karimov may legally be able to continue his reign despite being in the second consecutive and final seven-year term allowed in the Constitution. Mr Karimov’s current term ends in 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 68, published on Dec. 8 2011)
NOV. 27 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – In Georgia’s rebel region of South Ossetia, ex-education minister Alla Dzhioyeva defeated the Moscow-backed candidate in a presidential second round vote with an estimated 56% of the votes. Days later South Ossetia’s Supreme Court annulled the result and banned her from standing in an election re-scheduled for March.
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(News report from Issue No. 67, published on Dec. 1 2011)
NOV. 16 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev called an early parliamentary election for Jan. 15, a date which means the suspended Communist Party cannot compete. Although its voter base is small, the Communist Party is one of the only genuine opposition parties.
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(News report from Issue No. 65, published on Nov. 16 2011)
NOV. 13 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – A presidential election in the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia will go to a second round after the Kremlin-backed candidate, emergencies minister Anatoly Bibilov and former education minister Alla Dzhioyeva tied with 25% of the vote each. No other candidate polled over 10%.
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(News report from Issue No. 65, published on Nov. 16 2011)
OCT. 30 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Almazbek Atambayev, Kyrgyzstan’s pro-Russia PM and a northern favourite, won a presidential election with around 63% of the vote.
This comprehensive first round victory avoided a potentially divisive second round run-off. His main southern opponents, though, criticised the legitimacy of his larger-than-expected victory and pledged to contest it in the courts and on the streets.
Politics in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s least stable country, splits along clan and family loyalties. Mr Atambayev and his opponents now need to show real leadership to control their supporters and quickly snuff out any signs of post-election violence.
Since 2005, Kyrgyzstan has suffered two revolutions and a bout of ethnic fighting that killed more than 400 people. It now desperately needs stability.
Although international observers criticised some aspects of the voting process, it was a genuinely contested election — a rarity in Central Asia.
And it was also a genuinely historic milestone in the region’s 20-year post-Soviet history. It marks the first time a sitting president has willingly and peacefully relinquished power.
The outgoing president, Roza Otunbayeva, took power in April 2010 as interim leader after a revolution. She always said she would give up power at a presidential election. Now she is making good on that promise. In a region dominated by autocratic male leaders who first tasted power during the Soviet Union, Ms Otunbayeva is a shining example.
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(News report from Issue No. 63, published on Nov. 1 2011)
NOV. 1 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – In his first policy statement after winning a presidential election, Kyrgyzstan’s pro-Russia PM Almazbek Atambayev said the US will have to quit an airbase outside Bishkek when its lease expires in 2014. The airbase has been vital to NATO efforts in Afghanistan which also wind up in 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 63, published on Nov. 1 2011)