OCT. 6 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Around 12,000 supporters turned out for a rally in Tbilisi by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, media reported, one of the biggest of the year. A presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 27. Mr Saakashvili is ineligible for the election but the rally will act as a major show of support for his candidate.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijanis vote in a presidential election today that will hand the incumbent, Ilham Aliyev, his third term in power. International observers, who have never judged an election in Azerbaijan to be free and fair, will give a closely-watched verdict of the vote.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
OCT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijanis will vote today in their sixth presidential election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
This election, like the last five, will deliver an Aliyev to the presidential palace. Supporters of Ilham Aliyev, 51, will celebrate his third victory but there is much work to do before they can congratulate themselves on building a genuine legacy to bequeath future generations.
Despite the massive resource-driven growth over the last decade, there are major problems. Some of these problems, especially the inequality gap and the human rights and media freedom environments, appear to be worsening.
As well as pushing through major new pipeline plans and continuing to pressure foreign investors, led by BP, to increase oil and gas production from the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan also has to confront major structural problems.
A lob-sided economy is skewed towards the energy sector, inflating Azerbaijan’s currency and making it harder for the non-energy sector to grow.
The World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 noted that excessive and turgid bureaucracy also held back Azerbaijan’s competitiveness position, a mid-ranking 67.
Another area it highlighted was weak infrastructure.
Azerbaijani society is also riven through with inequality and corruption. These two issues have generated frustration which has bubbled over. Earlier this year accusations of corruption against a regional official and his family triggered the worst violence in Azerbaijan for a decade.
Azerbaijan’s fledgling opposition and international pressure groups also accuse Mr Aliyev and his security forces of using repressive reactionary tactics against them, perhaps a reaction to the potential spread of the so-called Arab Spring of 2011.
People are getting richer in Azerbaijan but there are real problems that need to be mended in Mr Aliyev’s third term as president.
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(News report from Issue No. 155, published on Oct. 9 2013)
SEPT. 27 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — An opinion poll commissioned by AzVision.az, a pro-government website, said 88% of people would vote for President Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan’s election. The poll is likely to be inflated but not substantially. Mr Aliyev is expected to win a third consecutive term in office at the Oct. 9 election.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 26 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — A poll by the US group National Democratic Institute (NDI) said 39% of Georgians want Giorgi Margvelashvili, candidate of PM Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition, to be the next president. The candidate of President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United Movement Party, David Bakradze, polled 18%. A presidential election in Georgia is set for Oct. 27.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 27 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Azerbaijan handed a five year prison sentence for possessing drugs, inciting hatred and treason to Hilal Mamedov, editor of the Talyshi Sado newspaper, a Talysh-language newspaper in the south of the country.
International human rights and media lobbyists said Azerbaijani authorities were using the courts to lock up the editors of newspaper that didn’t suit their agenda.
“I am saddened to see that the hostile environment for free media in Azerbaijan has not improved but is rather growing, as yet another journalist has received a lengthy prison sentence today,” said Dunja Mijatovic, the media representative for the OSCE, Europe’s governance lobby group.
The authorities have said that Hilal Mamedov was trying to destabilise the country. They have long been suspicious of the Talysh minority, a group of roughly 100,000 people who live along the border with Iran. The interior ministry has released a statement accusing Mamedov of undermining Azerbaijan’s security with inflammatory articles in the newspaper. It also accused him of spying for Iran.
Five years ago the then-editor of Talyshi Sado, Novruzali Mamedov (no relation to Hilal Mamedov) was also imprisoned on similar charges. He died in prison. Media groups said that he had been denied adequate medical treatment.
Azerbaijan has a poor media rights record and in her statement, the OSCE’s Ms Mijatovic said this was worsening in the run up to the Oct. 9 presidential election.
Ms Mijatovic may be right. Opposition journalists in Baku have been harassed and imprisoned while pro-government journalists have received new apartments.
Hilal Mamedov’s imprisonment is different, though, and it should be viewed as part of the dispute between the Talysh and the Azerbaijani state rather than through central politics.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
OCT. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s main opposition surprised observers by picking a female human rights activist to be its candidate in a presidential election scheduled for November, media reported. Oynihol Bobonazarova is the first woman to run in a presidential election in Tajikistan. President Emomali Rakhmon is guaranteed a win.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 30 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — It can be useful having a billionaire as your PM.
This year foreign direct investment in Georgia has slumped. This is bad news for Georgian PM Bidzina Ivanishvili who pledged that FDI would increase after he won a parliamentary election last October. It’s bad news also for the Georgia; FDI is a major cornerstone of the economy.
In September, Georgia’s foreign minister, Nodar Khaduri, said FDI this year would probably be around $1b, half the initial estimate.
Political instability is likely the main cause of foreigners’ reticence to invest. A presidential election, that could be genuinely destabilising, is set for Oct. 27.
So, Mr Ivanishvili has come up with a solution. On Sept. 30 he announced a $6b private equity fund that would invest in the country. He personally will, reportedly, pledge $1b to the fund. The other main investors are Dhabi Group and Ras Al Khaimah Investment Authority (RAKIA) as well as Turkish, Chinese and Kazakh investment funds.
Of the $6b, half will be invested in the energy sector and the rest in manufacturing and tourism.
Coming less than a month before the election, this is a clever ploy from Mr Ivanishvili. Time will tell, though, whether the fund is just a vote winner or a genuine investment vehicle.
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(News report from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 23 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s central election commission confirmed that 23 people had registered for its Oct. 27 presidential election. The two main contenders are Giorgi Margvelashvili from PM Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition and David Bakradze from President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement party.
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(News report from Issue No. 153, published on Sept. 25 2013)
SEPT. 23 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Yerevan sentenced Vardan Sedrakian, a candidate in a presidential election in February, to jail for trying to assassinate a rival. Gunmen shot and injured Paruyr Hayrikian, also a presidential candidate, a few weeks before the election on Feb. 18. The attempted assassination nearly delayed the vote.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 153, published on Sept. 25 2013)