Tag Archives: economy

Georgia Healthcare Group sets price range for London IPO

OCT. 25 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia Healthcare Group set a price range for shares at its IPO in London later this year of between 215p and 315p, an IPO that will give investors a rare chance to buy into the South Caucasus region.

This share price range gives Georgia Healthcare Group, the largest healthcare provider in Georgia, a value of between £257m – £347m ($400m – $535m).

Georgia Healthcare Group wants to raise $100m in the IPO to give two hospitals it owns in Tbilisi a makeover.

With economic conditions across the region slowing, various planned IPOs for companies from Central Asia and the South Caucasus have been cancelled or postponed.

Georgia Healthcare Group owns 42 hospitals in Georgia, giving it a 27% share of the hospital beds in the country. It used to be part of Bank of Georgia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Industrial investment slows in Kazakhstan

OCT. 16 2015, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — In an effort to cut spending, Kazakhstan appears to have reduced industrial investments by 23% in the first nine months of the year, the ranking.kz website reported, an indication of the worsening economic turmoil hitting the country.

In Jan.-Sept. 2015, the government invested 220.7b tenge ($797m) in fixed industrial assets, compared to 285b in the same period last year. The sharpest decline was to public utilities.

Last November, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev unveiled the Nurly Zhol (bright path), a $24b state programme designed to support industrial and infrastructure projects in the country.

The economic decline, triggered by the fall in oil prices and sanctions on Russia, has hit this ambitious target. Kazakhstan’s officials are beginning to talk more seriously about a prolonged economic decline.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Markets: Trade turnover among Eurasian Economic Union members falls

OCT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Eurasian Economic Commission published the latest statistics on trade turnover among EEU countries. It made for interesting, if also distressing, reading.

Trade among Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan was down by a quarter in Jan.-Aug. 2015, compared to the same period last year.

By volume, Russia was the country that suffered the largest fall, amounting to over $4b. In terms of percentage, however, all other countries except for Kyrgyzstan fared worse — Kyrgyzstan acceded as a full member only in August, so its numbers could be misleading.

Curiously, Armenia increased trade turnover with non-EEU countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan by over 40%.

In the two periods analysed by the Commission, oil prices were significantly different. And this can be clearly seen in Kazakhstan’s statistics, which show a sharp fall in exports to Italy, China and Russia, its main trade partners by volume. In particular, the value of Kazakhstan’s exports were reduced by the double whammy of lower oil prices and the decrease in the value of the tenge after the government abandoned its peg to the US dollar.

It is undeniable that the rouble crisis and the fall in oil prices have affected the Eurasian region. And the EEU has been unabel to contain the spill-over effects on its members.

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) —

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Kyrgyzstan’s housing market slows

OCT. 20 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s real estate market has slowed, media reported quoting a land registry report, more evidence that the overall Kyrgyz economy is stalling.

Analysts from the department of land registry said that the number of house sales this year had dropped by around 42% and the market for apartments was down by 34%.

The official position was the housing market had cooled off because prices were simply too high but a construction company in Bishkek said that the real reason activity in the housing market had fallen was the drop in the value of the Kyrgyz som against the US dollar.

“Sanctions on Russian economy definitely affect the purchasing power of our citizens because the US dollar is the currency for real estate transactions,” a construction company manager who wanted to remain anonymous told the Bulletin.

Roughly in line with other currencies in the region, the som has lost around 33% of its value over the past 12 months and is now trading at around 69/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Azerbaijan’s GDP growth falls

OCT. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s government said its economy would grow by only 1.8% next year compared to 4.4% this year because of low oil prices and a drop in production. Parliament also approved a national budget for 2016 of 14.6b manat ($13.9b), down by 10.4% from last year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

SP to exclude Kashagan from Kazakhstan’s economic forecasts

ALMATY, OCT. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said it would exclude Kashagan, Kazakhstan’s biggest oil field, from its Kazakh economic forecasts because its start-up date was unclear.

The news is a setback for NCOC, the consortium developing the Caspian sea field, which includes Eni, Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, CNPC, Inpex and Kazakhstan’s state-owned company Kazmunaigas.

Karen Vartapetov, S&P’s associate director, explained.

“The project has been repeatedly delayed. We are no longer taking this oilfield into account in the rating procedures,” she said.

Operations at Kashagan begun, briefly, in September 2013, eight years behind schedule. Two weeks later a leaky pipe was discovered and operations were stopped.

The delay has been costly for NCOC, adding an estimated $4b to the current $50b cost of the project.

The Kazakh government and NCOC say commercial production at

Kashagan will resume in the second half of 2016. S&P has forecast a start date no earlier than 2018.

Rich with oil and gas reserves, Kashagan was poised to become the gem of Kazakhstan’s resource-based economy. But technical problems and low oil prices have meant this glittering prize has been delayed.

Over the past few years, international oil companies have quit the project. Now S&P’s decision not to include it in Kazakh econ forecasts further undermines its status .

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Kyrgyz electricity prices rise

OCT. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Nurbek Elbayev, director of the Kyrgyz energy regulatory agency, said electricity tariffs will rise sharply over the next two years. The regulator will impose a 21% increase in August 2016 and a 29% rise in 2017. Electricity prices have risen across the region, triggering civil unrest.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Turkmen President presents 2016 budget

OCT. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov confirmed that the government will increase by 10% all salaries for state employees from next year.

In an official announcement in the state’s Neutral Turkmenistan newspaper, Mr Berdymukhamedov presented his budget for 2016.

“The State budget was drafted with consideration of the Decree on the President of Turkmenistan on a 10% increase in wages, pensions, state benefits and scholarships on January 1, 2016,” Neutral Turkmenistan reported.

Turkmenistan devalued its manat currency by 20% on Jan. 1 this year, hitting people’s real wages. Earlier this year Mr Berdymukhamedov said that he would go some way towards compensating people by raising government salaries but there had previously been no official confirmation of how or when this would happen.

And in a budget clearly designed to ward off a drop in economic growth linked to low energy prices, Mr Berdymukhamedov said he would fund the salary rise by selling off some state assets.

“The revenues of the State budget are to be replenished through the privatisation of state-run objects and enterprises and dwelling houses from the state housing stock and the distribution of the bonds of the state fund,” Neutral Turkmenistan said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Georgian lari

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite all the reassuring declarations coming from Astana and the Central Bank in Almaty, volatility will be a constant for the Kazakh currency over the next months. There is just no getting away from it.

On Wednesday, Kairat Kelimbetov, Kazakhstan’s Central Bank chief, said 277.5 tenge/ $1 is an acceptable rate as long as oil prices float around $50 per barrel. Already on Friday, Brent prices fell to $48 and the tenge followed to 278.2. Over the past fortnight it has lost 1.5% against the US dollar.

Other currencies fared better this week, maintaining their value. The Georgian lari was steady at 2.39/$1 and even the Kyrgyz som had a calm week below 69/$1.

Rumours of devaluation are more worrisome in Uzbekistan, where the sum is officially stable at around 2,663/$1, but the website dollaruz.com said informal rates on the Black Market are hitting over 5,700 sum/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Armenia’s foreign trade slows

OCT. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s foreign trade turnover dropped 20% in the first eight months of the year, its national statistics office said. The data is more evidence of the economic slowdown that has hit the South Caucasus over the past year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)