Tag Archives: economy

Georgian lari hits all-time low

JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Georgian currency, the lari, hit an all-time low of 2.47/$1, despite various interventions by the Central Bank to prop it up. Its previous low had been set in 1999, providing context for just how much value currencies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have lost. The lari is down around 25% from a year earlier.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Business comment: Tough times for banks

JAN. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Government policies towards the banking sector are key to survival during tough economic times.

In this new downturn, which has already lasted longer than the 2008/9 Financial Crisis, commodity prices have collapsed, hitting oil- exporting countries.

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have been among the hardest-hit economies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

In mid-2014, Kazakhstan planned to restructure its banking sector by imposing greater capital requirements. The Central Bank wanted the country’s banks to

increase their capital from 10b to 100b tenge ($54m to $543m at the time).

But in August 2015 the Central Bank abandoned the tenge peg to the US dollar, allowing it to fall sharply.

This relieved pressure on its currency but knocked plans to increase capital requirements for banks.

Bank deposits in Kazakhstan are now insured by the government. If the Central Bank had pushed forward with its new capitalisation plan after ditching the tenge-US dollar peg it would have meant that smaller banks would have had to close. The government would then have been under pressure to repay customers who had lost savings. Kazakh officials dodged this by scrapping the plan.

Azerbaijan, by contrast, has pushed ahead with increasing capital requirements at banks despite a 35% fall in its currency over the past month. This has forced small banks to close and larger banks to merge.

All this before introducing universal insurance on deposits. Until now, only savers with up to 30,000 manat ($18,400) were insured.

Time will tell which of the two strategies pays off.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Turkmen President holds currency control talks

JAN. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said he wants the government to keep a stricter control on the currency market, hinting that the country might soon revise its monetary policy. Mr Berdymukhamedov has also voiced his dissatisfaction of a number of government officials in the past few weeks, a sign of a possible government reshuffle.

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(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

EU sends 15m euro to Kyrgyzstan

JAN. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Union said it had released the second tranche of a 30m euro loan and grant to Kyrgyzstan designed to support and promote stability and democracy. Of the final 15m euro payment, 5m euro was a grant and 10m euro was a loan. The EU said the payment was “to support the restoration of a sustainable external financial situation for the Kyrgyz Republic.”

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(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Editorial: Emergency loan for Azerbaijan

JAN. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF’s arrival in Baku is a game-changer. For the Azerbaijani government to invite the IMF to Baku means that their economy is in a more perilous position then they had been letting on.

The manat has lost 35% of its value over the past month; demonstrations have stirred in regional cities; inflation is rising; jobs are disappearing.

We know all this but we’ve also been told that the Azerbaijani government has, officially at least, saved up around $35b in its sovereign wealth fund for exactly this sort of scenario.

Why then, would Azerbaijan invite the IMF to Baku to discuss a loan? The impression that the IMF’s arrival in Baku had created is that things in Azerbaijan are worse than they have been letting on. Perhaps the authorities haven’t really saved up $35b. Perhaps they don’t have access to all the $35b.

What is known is that IMF are in town until the end of next week and that Azerbaijan’s finances, and the extent of their dire financial scenario is currently shrouded in mystery.

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(Editorial from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

 

Azerbaijan introduces tax exemption for investors

JAN. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s finance minister Samir Sharifov said a new 20% tax on capital exports will not be imposed on foreign investors. The manat has lost around a third of its value since the Central Bank ditched a peg to the US dollar on Dec. 21. In response the government imposed various capital control requirements.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Azerbaijan’s Central Bank to compensate savers

JAN. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Central Bank said it would compensate customers of banks who lost savings in banks which have been stripped of their licences over the past couple of weeks. Legally, the Central Bank is only obliged to compensate up to 30,000 manat ($18,400). Around 6,600 customers will be eligible for the refund.

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(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Fitch raises Armenian GDP

JAN. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ratings agency Fitch said it forecasts GDP growth in Armenia of 2% in 2016. The agency also revised upwards its prediction on the final 2015 results. According to Fitch, Armenia grew by 2.7% in 2015, pushed up by a relatively positive trade balance. While imports fell sharply by 26% compared to 2014, exports only contracted by 1% in the same period.

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(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Inflation in Azerbaijan to soar in 2016

JAN. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Azerbaijan in 2016 will measure between 10% and 12%, finance minister Samir Sharifov said on TV, up from a previous estimate of 3%. In 2015 inflation measured 4%. The sudden increase is linked to the sharp devaluation in the manat currency, Mr Sharifov said.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Currency booths in Kazakh city

JAN. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Currency exchange booths in Almaty refused to change US dollars after the price of oil started to rise slightly, highlighting the fears and weaknesses of the Kazakh economy. Like the rest of the region, Kazakhstan’s currency has slumped with the decline in oil price. Unlike some of its neighbours, Kazakhstan hasn’t imposed heavy currency controls.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)