Tag Archives: economy

Business comment: Commodity slump hits richest

MARCH 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — “Net worth” might not be hard data, but it’s still a decent indication of just how hard the economic downturn and the fall in commodity prices have hit Kazakhstan.

The owners of Kazakh miner ENRC lost a total of $1.8b in net worth in 2015, according to Forbes’ 2016 Billionaires list, showing the economic collapse that has hit Kazakhstan.

Aleksander Machkevich, Patok Chodiev and Alijan Ibragimov, the “Kazakh Trio,” lost around $600m each in 2015.

ENRC de-listed in London in November 2013 after disputes in the board and fraud investigations. The Kazakh Trio owns Eurasian Resources Group, a Luxembourg- based holding that owns ENRC.

Mr Ibragimov is the only member of the Trio registered in Kazakhstan.

Other members of the exclusive Kazakh billionaire club who have seen their fortunes dip include Dinara Kulibayeva, President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s daughter, and her husband Timur Kulibayev, each valued at $2b in 2015, down from a valuation of $2.1b in 2014.

Kazakhstan’s richest man, Bulat Utemuratov, fell 57 places in Forbes’ ranking. Mr Utemuratov is now the 771st richest man in the world, at $2.3b.

Finally, Forbes said that Vladimir Kim, who owns one-third of KAZ Minerals, saw his net worth decline from $1.8b to $1.5b.

Overall, the top five business people in Kazakhstan are worth $1.5b less than last year, that’s a 14% cut.

If the depreciation of the tenge has badly hit ordinary consumers and savers in Kazakhstan, the commodity slump remains the biggest headache for the high-flying business people.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Inflation rises in Kazakhstan

MARCH 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised inflation to the end of February measured 15.2%, its highest rate since 2008, the statistics agency said. The data is more evidence that the devaluation of the tenge last year by 50% has spurred overall inflation. The Central Bank had wanted inflation between 6 – 8%. It has now said its monetary policy is aimed at dampening inflation.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Market stall holders in Armenian capital protest

FEB. 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Stall owners in Yerevan’s largest clothing market scuffled with police during a protest against what they say are unfair rents they are having to pay in worsening economic conditions.

Armenia is prone to street demonstrations which can often be drawn out and rattle governments. Last year protests over a proposed increase in electricity prices lasted weeks and eventually forced the government to backtrack.

And, just like its neighbours, Armenia’s economy has been worsening over the past 18 months. Remittances have fallen, GDP growth is low and shopkeepers have said that trade has collapsed.

Now frayed nerves appear to be morphing into street demonstrations once again.

Official data has shown that trade in Armenia in 2015 was down by nearly 60% on the previous year, media reported. Stall owners at the Malatia market on the western edge of the city appear to agree. Hundreds stopped work to join the protest that blocked a road.

“We are not slaves. Enough is enough,” RFE/RL quoted one stall owner as saying.

They wanted the rent on the stalls to be lowered by 30%, a figure that the market’s owner has said was impossible to hit.

The demonstration’s leaders have said that they will not pay rent in March unless the price is dropped, setting the scene for another show- down next month.

Police detained three people at the demonstration.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Fitch cuts Azerbaijani credit ratings

FEB. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The ratings agency Fitch cut Azerbaijan’s sovereign credit score to junk, following the other two main agencies’ lead, highlighting that it expects the Azerbaijani economy to shrink this year. Azerbaijan has been hit hard by the fall in global oil prices.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Kazakh pensioners take jobs to survive economic slump

MARCH 4 2016, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Pensioners in Kazakhstan are giving up retirement and taking jobs to help them through a sharp economic downturn which has decimated the value of their tenge savings and their pension payments.

The trend is a major blow to the government ahead of parliamentary elections later this month. It had said that it will be able to look after all Kazakhs during the economic downturn.

But official data, suggested that for many pensioners in Kazakhstan, the downturn has been so heavy that they have had to return to work.

The size of the workforce aged over 65 in Kazakhstan, the usual retirement age, doubled in 2015, the ranking.kz website said quoting data from the state’s statistics centre.

In Almaty, a Conway Bulletin correspondent spoke to several elderly Kazakhs who had picked up a new job or had never quit work.

Nina Lozovaya, 81, was a chemistry and biology school teacher. She carried on working until she was 78. Now, though, her state teacher’s pension is so small that she was selling her clothes and other items on the street to earn money for medicine.

“The price for medications increased dramatically, and now I don’t have enough money to buy them,” she said. “Teachers’ pension is very small. I try to buy less medications now.” Her face crumpled with exasperation.

Further down the street an old woman was selling newspapers. She declined to be named but said: “I work because I need money, obviously.”

There is another side to the story behind Kazakhstan’s elderly workforce, though. People often carry on casual jobs after reaching retirement age to boost their income.

Sandugash, 73, worked in a small shop.

“After the death of my husband, I had many diseases and depression,” she said. “When I started working, each year I feel much better. And I can afford to go out sometimes because of the job.”

Life expectancy for men in Kazakhstan is 64 years and for women is 73 years. This means elderly women dominate the retirees’ workforce.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Azerbaijan drops currency tax

FEB. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Azerbaijani parliament formally dropped a plan to impose a 20% tax on all deals in foreign currencies. It voted to drop the bill, which had passed earlier in the year, after President Ilham Aliyev refused to sign it. The motive for the bill had been to protect Azerbaijan’s manat currency which has lost around half its value but critics said it was unfair and unworkable. Low oil prices have hit Azerbaijan hard. It is reliant on oil to earn export revenue.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Kazakhstan cuts funding to sport

FEB. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, said it will cut funding to the Astana Presidential Sports Club, an umbrella organisation that sponsors everything from cycling to football to boxing. The club was officially set up in 2013 to promote Kazakhstan and Astana under the country’s yellow and blue colours. It received large sums of money. Successes included winning cycling’s Tour de France and FC Astana playing in the Champion’s League, football’s most high profile competition. Kazakhstan has been looking for ways to cut costs as the economic downturn bites.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Kazakhstan slips towards recession

FEB. 23 2016, ALMATY/DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan verged on acknowledging that its economy may actually shrink this year and a Tajik Central Bank official said it was in talks with the IMF for an emergency loan, more signals that a sharp regional economic crisis was deepening further.

Normally bullish about its own GDP growth predictions, the reconfigured Kazakh government GDP growth estimate of 0.5% is an important sign of the severity of the economic downturn linked to low oil prices. Kazakhstan had earlier predicted GDP growth in 2016 at 2.1%.

“If the cost of a barrel of oil is $40, GDP growth will be 2.1%, but we’ve taken the conservative approach and have assumed that the price of oil will costs $30 per barrel and that GDP growth will hit 0.5%,” journalists quoted Yerbolat Dosayev, the economy minister as saying. Oil is currently around $35/barrel.

Importantly, this new GDP growth estimate is far closer to that of international economist who have said that Kazakhstan’s economy could shrink in 2016. The last time that Kazakhstan’s economy dipped into a recession was in 2008.

Low oil prices and a recession in Russia which has wiped out essential remittance and business investment flows have hit Central Asia hard. The scale and speed of the downturn appears to have wrong-footed leaders, including Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his advisers.

They have slashed government budgets and also sold off chunks of state-owned companies, but they haven’t been able to prevent the tenge from losing 50% of its value and inflation rising. Officials are now worried about anti-government protests.

On the southern fringe of Central Asia, Tajikistan, the world’s most remittance-reliant economy, has also been reeling from the impact of the downturn. It has called in the IMF to try to organise an emergency loan.

Jamoliddin Nuraliev, deputy head of Tajikistan’s Central Bank, told the FT that talks with the IMF had begun.

“It’s crisis time,” he said.

Tajikistan has depleted its currency reserves in its Central Bank trying to defend the value of it somoni currency. At the same time, data has shown that the flow of remittances from Russia have dropped by around half.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Azerbaijan cancels $16.5b petrochemical project

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company SOCAR said it had halted a multi-billion dollar project to develop the OGPC petrochemical complex at Sangachal, 40km south of Baku, because of sustained low oil prices, dealing a major blow to the country’s economic outlook.

SOCAR’s vice president Tofig Gahramanov said the company had stopped construction on the complex that was once valued at $16.5b and feted as the project that would transform Azerbaijan into the region’s biggest producer of refined products.

“We can say that active work on the OGPC project has been temporarily frozen,” Mr Gahramanov told Reuters in an interview.

Last month, in Kazakhstan, South Korea’s LG Chem cancelled a $4.2b project to build a petrochemical plant on the Caspian Sea coast.

Initially, the OGPC project near Baku, included an oil refinery which was later dropped, bringing the cost of construction down to $7b.

Japan’s Mitsui signed a preliminary memorandum to take part in the project last year. Last year, the Britain-based unit of US’ Fluor Group was selected as the lead contractor on the project. Fluor UK declined to comment when contacted by The Conway Bulletin.

The economic downturn has hit Azerbaijan hard. The manat currency has lost around 50% of its value and, with oil prices still low, the project was simply too costly for the state budget.

And the impact of SOCAR’s decision to freeze, or scrap, plans to build the petrochemical complex will be felt far and wide.

This was one of the biggest projects in the region and dozens of Western companies will have been lined up to work on it.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Tajikistan raises interest rate

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 9%, its first rise since December 2014. It said it needed to try to protect the value of its somoni currency which has lost around half its value over the past year. A recession in Russia has hit Tajikistan hard, as its economy relies on remittances sent back by workers living in Russia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)