Tag Archives: economy

Deficit grows in Azerbaijan

JUNE 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s Central Bank published economic data that highlighted a current account deficit and a drop in FDI for Q1 2016, compared to the same period last year. This is the second consecutive quarter that Azerbaijan has run a trade deficit. Statistical projections say that Azerbaijan will face an economic recession in the first half of the year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Business comment: BREXIT, Oil & Crisis

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – As the results of the referendum on Britain’s EU membership came in early on Friday, the decision to leave the EU has shaken the global market.

The Leave vote has hit the London stock market, where most of the companies focusing on Central Asia and the South Caucasus are listed. Economists now expect more volatility in the short term for the London Stock Exchange.

The so-called Brexit also negatively affected oil prices, sending both Brent and WTI down by 6% in just a few hours. Analysts have said that the period of uncertainty regarding oil prices will now last longer.

Currency markets were also hit, as the British pound lost value against the US dollar, effectively strengthening the greenback.

This had an immediate domino effect on currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where local currencies weakened against the US dollar.

The increasing uncertainty and volatility is now poised to harm, at least in the short term, local markets in the region, prompting elites in from Tbilisi to Astana to brace for more tough times. It will also hit global markets in general, forcing investors to flee to safety and this means missing out Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Now both the Fed in the US and the Bank of England will have to revise their economic policies and this is likely to insulate further their economies and pull investment back from Emerging Markets.

In these uncertain times, countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus cannot but hope that Western investors will go against the tide and continue investing in the region.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Tajik President sets power output goal

JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon said electricity generation in his country will grow by three times by 2030. Mr Rakhmon set the power output goal at 45b kWh/year, compared to 17b kWh last year. In addition, Mr Rakhmon said the country’s export potential will grow to 10b kWh/year. Tajikistan is tasked with generating most of the electricity for the CASA-1000 power transmission line to Pakistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Georgia’s GDP rises

JUNE 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s GDP grew by 2.6% in Q1 2016, driven by an increase in mining and construction activity, the Georgian Statistics Committee, Geostat, said. Large infrastructure projects have boosted Georgia’s GDP growth, which is still below the government’s expectation of full-year growth of 3%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

IMF approves loans for Kyrgyzstan and Armenia

JUNE 16/17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF approved two loans to Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, part of a three-year plan to support macroeconomic reforms. It loaned $22m to Armenia, where it supported a controversial tax reform that received a first parliamentary approval on June 15. The IMF also gave a $13m loan to Kyrgyzstan and lauded the government’s measures to boost tax revenues and cut spending.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

EBRD issues lari bond in Georgia

JUNE 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The EBRD said it issued a 107m lari ($50.2m) bond in Georgia, the second lari-denominated public bond issued by the bank. The five-year bond has an initial yield of 6.45% and will be listed on the Georgian Stock Exchange. The EBRD launched its first domestic bond in Georgia in March 2014. The value of the original two-year bond was 50m lari (around $30m at the time).

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Armenians criticise tax revamp

JUNE 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Political and institutional figures have harshly criticised a new tax code that parliament approved last week during the first reading of the bill. Mans Tandilyan, a high-ranking member of the Lusavor Hayastan party, said the new code will negatively affect small and medium businesses. Tigran Jrbashyan, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Armenia, warned that, if passed, the law would send Armenia into a recession. The new tax law, approved on June 15, will increase excise taxes on fuel, tobacco and alcohol and increase income tax.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Kazakhstan’s oil output falls

JUNE 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s oil output fell by 7% to 1.5m barrels/day in April compared to the same period in 2015, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report. Kazakhstan’s Statistics Committee said total oil production shrank by 2.8% in Jan.-May 2016, to 27.7m tonnes, compared to the same period in 2015.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 285, published on June 17 2016)

Foreign trade rises in Georgia

JUNE 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Foreign trade turnover grew by 3% in Georgia in Jan.-May 2016 compared to the same period last year, the Statistics Committee said. Importantly, however, the gap between imports and exports grew by 15%, worsening the country’s trade balance. The value of imports increased by 8% to $3.3b. The value of exports decreased 12%, to $780m.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 285, published on June 17 2016)

Railway construction delayed, says Azerbaijan Railways chief

JUNE 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan Railways chief Javid Gurbanov said that the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway connection has been delayed by adverse weather conditions, but is on track to be completed by the end of the year. Georgia has already completed the section that will cross its territory. The Turkish government also confirmed that it plans to complete its section by the end of 2016. The original timeline of the project, started in 2007,scheduled its completion for 2010.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 285, published on June 17 2016)