Tag Archives: economy

Georgia’s economy grows by 2.1%

JUNE 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Data from Georgia’s state statistics agency Geostat showed that the economy had grown by 2.1% in the 12 months to end-May, a slow down from the 4.3% annualised growth to the end of April. Georgia’s government has estimated GDP growth of 3% for 2015. Like the rest of the region, Georgia has been dealing with the double dangers of a recession in Russian and a drop in oil prices.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Kazakhstan aims to reduce black economy

JUNE 26 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Looking to reduce the size of the black economy and to increase the size of tax receipts, Kazakhstan has unveiled plans to force people to declare their income. Media reported that civil servants and employees of state-owned companies will have to declare their full income by 2017, with everybody else following by 2020. The black economy in Kazakhstan has been growing as people try to avoid paying taxes.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Kazakhstan imposes export ban

JUNE 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s government imposed an export ban on ferrous and non- ferrous metals until the end of the year, to avoid shortages of scrap metal in the country. PM Karim Massimov said the shortage could prevent Kazakhstan from reaching its industrial goals. Kazakhstan plans to increase production of metals by 10% this year. Last year, production fell by 2.5%.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Brexit knocks economies in Kazakhstan & Georgia

JUNE 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Brexit, Britain’s vote to leave the EU in a referendum on June 23, pushed down stock markets, commodities and currencies worldwide, including in South Caucasus and Central Asia where politicians and business leaders warned of problems ahead.

Kazakhstan was hit by both currency instability and the sudden drop in oil prices, which fell below the $50/barrel threshold it had recovered to earlier this year after the rout of 2014 and 2015.

Uzakbai Karabalin, Kazakhstan’s former oil minister and now deputy chairman of the oil and gas lobby group KAZENERGY, said the government will have to revise down the baseline for oil prices in the national budget this year.

“[Brexit] has already affected oil prices,” he said. “The first response was a decline. Now the economic base price is $50/barrel.”

Previously, the government had said the baseline for this year could have grown to $60/barrel, so a drop to $50/barrel is a pessimistic assessment of the impact of Brexit.

Georgia, less impacted by low oil prices, felt the Brexit effect on its currency, the lari. The lari has fallen by 4.5% since June 23 and Dimitry Kumsishvili, the economy minister, blamed the Brexit result.

“This is most likely a one-off that is directly connected to the UK’s decision to quit the European Union. Of course, this immediately affects our currency,” Mr Kumsishvili said.

He warned that the impact of Brexit had only just started to feed through into the world’s economy and that more economic shocks in the region were likely.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Armenia’s CB cuts interest rates

JUNE 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate to 7.5% from 7.75% because of continued deflationary pressure on its economy. Armenia’s interest rate is now at its lowest level for 18 months. It had aggressively increased its interest rate to prop up its currency. Now prices are falling and the economy is slowing, forcing the Central Bank to try to stimulate business and economy activity.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Currencies: Kazakhstan’s tenge, Azerbaijan’s manat

JULY 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Since mid-2014, a strong US dollar and downward pressures on oil prices have hit economies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Currencies in the region suffered and, despite all the efforts from Central Banks to keep the exchange rate steady by intervening in the market, the fall was inevitable.

Compared to two years ago, all currencies have lost between 15% to 50% of their value. Oil exporting countries (in green in the graph) have fared worse than oil importing countries (pictured in red).

The Kazakh and Azerbaijani Central Banks decided to abandon the currency peg to the US dollar in 2015, causing a plunge in the value of the tenge and the manat. In 2015, these two were among the worst-performing cur- rencies in the world, not just the region.

Oil importers have acted in the opposite direction. In Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, currencies stabilised in the second half of 2015 and Central Banks have tightly controlled exchange rates since.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Business comment: Big Projects

JUNE 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan may resume its dream of building a mega petrochemical processing complex in an effort to revive its oil and gas sector. This alone is good news for the economy of Azerbaijan, which is poised to see its GDP shrink this year for the first time in two decades.

The intent of SOCAR, the state-owned energy company, is to salvage the project, which it had effectively abandoned in February, after its initial investors had either pulled out or stalled financing.

This is the effect of sustained low oil prices. Besides shying away from upstream exploration and production for costly fields, oil and gas companies have also been forced to rethink their plans for downstream processing facilities.

The project initially included an oil refinery, for a total cost of $16.5b. After scrapping parts of the complex, including the refinery, and downsizing the gas processing facility, the project’s price tag fell to around $4b, a cost that Chinese and Russo- Italian ventures, the new potential investors, now deem feasible.

This is a common problem. Big projects have had to face both the doubts of investors in a low oil price era and the protests of locals, who would rather see resources allocated to combating the enduring crisis.

In January, South Korea’s LG pulled out of a project to build a $4.2b petrochemical plant in Kazakhstan, Russia fled an investment to build a $2b hydropower project in Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan seemed to have abandoned hopes for its project.

As oil prices timidly pick up again, Azerbaijan’s announcement that the project might still see the light could potentially lure investors, who had kept themselves at arm’s length from the rather toxic market it had become in the past two years.

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(News report from Issue No. 287, published on July 1 2016)

Editorial: Tajik electricity production

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon said that he wanted to triple Tajikistan’s power generation capacity to around 45b kWh/year by 2030.

This is a long-term projection, and plenty can happen over the next 14 years, especially in Tajikistan, but it is still an important one. It is important because it shows the impact that the World Bank sponsored CASA-1000 project is having on the aspirations of Tajikistan.

Tajikistan needs to boost its exports and electricity production, through its network of hydropower stations, has emerged as the only real way of doing this. Gold production, while increasing, is still low, hopes of an oil boom spurred by the discovery of Bokhtar field have fallen flat.

But CASA-1000 has encouraged positive talk of a boom in power generation in Tajikistan. It’s important, too, to credit Tajikistan, over Kyrgyzstan, of being hard-headed about power generation. It will supply the lion’s share of the power for the CASA-1000 project, which will send electricity across Afghanistan to Pakistan, and plans to boost its power generation capacity even further show that the potential is there for more.

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(Editorial from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Kazakhstan fines ArcelorMittal

JUNE 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Steel producer ArcelorMittal Temirtau received a fine of 3.4m tenge (around $10,000) from the Kazakh government for failing to comply with its 2014 investment plan. The company, a subsidiary of Indian giant ArcelorMittal, operates the biggest steel producing plant in Central Asia. Slower demand for steel had forced the company to cut back investment and lay off workers in 2014. It had hoped that the reemergence of Iran into the international economy would boost sales.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Utility cost rise in Armenia

JUNE 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s state regulator said it will consider a 5% reduction in the price it charges homes for electricity, currently in the 38.8 – 48.8dram range (8-10 cents), adding to the deflationary pressure in the economy. In April, Russia’s Gazprom agreed to apply a 9% discount to the gas it supplied to Armenia. Rising electricity costs for households had sparked a popular protest in the summer of 2015.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)