Tag Archives: economy

Armenian president signs deals with UAE

MARCH 22 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Looking to boost investment from the UAE, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan travelled to Dubai to sign various deals. The most significant deal was a visa waiver between Armenia and the UAE. Media reports of Mr Sargsyan’s visit to the UAE said that discussions had focused on expanding bilateral relations, especially in tourism, agriculture and water management.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Uzbek authorities crackdown on money changers

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MARCH 21 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The authorities in Uzbekistan are trying to crackdown on Black Market money changers, the Eurasianet website reported. It described a raid by both undercover and uniformed police on money changers outside a major Tashkent supermarket. Under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in power since September, the Uzbek authorities have managed a careful devaluation of the som currency. The crackdown on the once thriving som Black Market, appears designed to coincide with this devaluation.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Azerbaijani economy will grow, says Fitch

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MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fitch, the ratings agency, said that the Azerbaijani economy was likely to pick up this year after contracting by 3.8% in 2016. In an interview with Reuters, Paul Gamble, head of Fitch’s emerging Europe department said that the economy would grow by 0.2% this year and 1.7% in 2018. Earlier this month, the Asian Development Bank said that Azerbaijan’s economy would shrink again this year.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

IMF says needs to develop private sector in Turkmenistan

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MARCH 21 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The IMF concluded a working visit to Turkmenistan by calling on the government to do more to develop the private sector. It also said that Turkmenistan needed to reduce the size of its external debt and that the economy was still struggling to deal with the fall in gas prices. Accurate economic data on Turkmenistan is tough to source but anecdotal evidence suggests the economy is struggling.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

ABD demands reforms from Tajikistan

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MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has linked another $50m loan to Tajikistan to reforms that it said the government needs to make to 14 areas to improve economic conditions, mainly focused on protecting businesses from tax inspections and official pressure, media reported. Tajikistan’s economy is under pressure from a recession in Russia and it has been looking for handouts from international lenders.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Currencies: Georgian lari, Azerbaijani manat

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MARCH 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a week of light trading and only incremental currency fluctuations, the Georgian lari performed strongest pushing up by 1.6% to 2.44/$1.

This is its highest level since the start of November last year and reflects a general strengthening of Georgia’s macro-economic scores.

Of the other currencies, only the Azerbaijani manat and the Uzbek som moved more than 1%. The manat continued its strong performance since February by moving up another 1.3% to 1.7050/$1, a five month high. Bloomberg described the manat as the strongest performing currency in the world this year. It also said, though, that ordinary Azerbaijanis still had little confidence in their currency after two devaluations in 2015 halved its value.

It said this lack of confidence showed through in Central Bank data which said 81.3% of bank deposits were now kept in US dollars, up from 79.6% at end-Dec.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Azerbaijan’s economy will shrink again in 2017, says ADB

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MARCH 14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy will continue to shrink in 2017, the Asian Development Bank said in a grim assessment of the country’s outlook following a disastrous 2016.

Overall, the ADB said that the Azerbaijani government’s prediction of 1% growth in 2017 was wildly over-optimistic and that a decrease of 1.1% was more likely. Last year,

Azerbaijan’s oil-backed economy shrunk by 3.8%, its worst year of economic activity since the 1990s.

“Our preliminary assessment as of today is minus 1.1 percent … and it’s most likely that our … assessment of GDP for this year will remain at the negative level,” Nariman Mannapbekov, the ADB’s country chief, told Reuters in an interview in Baku.

The ADB assessment will be a major blow to Azerbaijan which has been looking for some growth.

And, once again, Mr Mannapbekov urged the Azerbaijani government to focus on diversify the economy away from oil.

The slump in oil prices has hit Azerbaijan hard, forcing the government to slash funding.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Inflation at correct level, says Kazakh Central Bank chief

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MARCH 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh Central Bank chief Daniyer Akishev said that he wanted to target inflation of 6-8% by the end of the year. It currently measures 7.8% which is down from a recent high of 17.7% in July 2016. Kazakhstan’s economy has stabilised after falling heavily in the previous couple of years, a drop linked to the fall in oil prices and tenge weakness.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)f

Kazakh Central Bank says to buy KKB bad debt

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ALMATY, MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank confirmed that it would buy up 2.4 trillion tenge ($7.5b) of bad debt owned by Kazkommertsbank, effectively subsidising its purchase by Halyk Bank.

Halyk Bank, owned by the daughter and son-in-law of Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev, agreed to buy Kazkommertsbank earlier this year for an undisclosed amount in a deal that will give it a 38% market share and Kazakhstan’s elite control of the banking sector.

The 2.4 trillion tenge bad debt held by Kazkommertsbank is a legacy of its purchase of BTA Bank from the government. The government had

bought it in 2008/9 when it was about to collapse during the Global Financial Crisis.

Separately, deputy Central Bank chairman Oleg Smolyakov said it would take two to three months for Halyk Bank to carry out its due diligence of Kazkommertsbank before the takeover could be completed.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)

Currencies: Azerbaijani manat

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MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Azerbaijani manat continued its strong return to form, pushing up to 1.7286/$1 by March 17, its strongest level against the US dollar since the beginning of November 2016.

At its weakest point, the manat had been valued at 1.9517/$1 in February, meaning that it has strengthened by nearly 11.5%.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has said that this manat strength is probably due to a transfer of 7.5b manat ($4.3b) from the SOFAZ, the state oil fund, to the Central Bank to boost the economy. The Azerbaijani economy has been looking fragile, because of the depressed price of oil, and it has needed the cash injection.

The Kazakh tenge and the Georgian lari also rose marginally in value throughout the week, although the Kyrgyz som and the Tajik somoni fell in value. The Kyrgyz som is surfing near its lowest point since mid-September 2016.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)