JAN. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said Azerbaijan’s economy would grow by between 3-4% in 2014, a drop from 5.8% in 2013. In a report, the EBRD said a pre-election government spending spree in August and September had distorted and boosted Azerbaijan’s growth rates last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — An estimated 4,000 people protested in central Yerevan against planned changes to the pension system. The protest dispersed quietly. The change in the pension law means that people aged 40 or under will have to pay 5% of their salary into a pension. Like other states in the former Soviet Union, Armenia needs to reform a pension scheme now considered overly generous.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek officials flew to Moscow to attend an inter-government committee on economic cooperation. At the meeting they signed a deal to improve relations and encourage cross-border investment. This is more significant than usual as, last month, Uzbekistan ratified a deal to join a CIS free trade zone.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, said he was ending free gas in order to encourage people to consume energy more efficiently. The move is likely to irritate ordinary people who have become used to receiving free gas since 1993.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s economy is booming, Uzbek President Islam Karimov told ministers. Last year, Mr Karimov said, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8%, boosted by foreign investment. But while Mr Karimov’s numbers might suggest a booming economy, it doesn’t feel that way on Uzbekistan’s streets.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Brushing aside growing speculation over the Kazakh economy, Kairat Kelimbetov, head of Kazakhstan’s Central Bank, said there were no plans to devalue the Kazakh tenge. Media reports quoted Mr Kelimbetov after analysts openly questioned whether the tenge was too expensive.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Wearing a pin-striped suit, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev delivered his annual state-of-the-nation speech in Astana to the massed ranks of favoured party officials and members of the political elite.
His speech concentrated on the economic tasks ahead for Kazakhstan including the goal of joining the world’s top 30 economies by 2050.
In the more short term, Mr Nazarbayev said Kazakhstan planned to build its first nuclear power station within four years and to bolster the hi-tech sector.
He also set a growth target of between 6% and 7% this year and inflation of between 3% and 4%.
None of this is particularly new, Mr Nazarbayev has never been short of ambition and high rhetoric. He also knows full well that it won’t be him dealing with the headache of trying to hit ambitious targets set for 2050.
Interestingly, standing alongside him as he met delegates after his speech was his eldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva. Some analysts have talked of her as a potential presidential successor.
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(News report from Issue No. 168, published on Jan. 22 2014)
JAN. 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s government ordered the country’s largest industries to cut production costs by 10%, media reported quoting an official document. The order is a reflection of the bloated nature of Uzbekistan’s industrial base and also of the poor health of the Uzbek economy. It may also herald potential job cuts in 2014.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — In 2013 the port of Aktau, on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast, handled 8% less trade compared to 2012.
This is significant because Aktau is one of the biggest trading posts into and out of Kazakhstan. Unsurprisingly oil and oil-based products form 60% of Aktau Port’s trade volumes. Last year oil shipments through Aktau dropped by 20%, a significant drop and one that needs to be analysed.
The drop is probably down to a shift in the direction that oil has been travelling. Previously, Kazakhstan had sent most of its oil West across the Caspian Sea to Europe via Azerbaijan or north through Russia’s pipeline network. This has changed significantly over the past few years and Kazakh oil is now flowing east to China.
The drop in trade at Aktau is important as it is probably a byproduct of increased Chinese demand for Kazakh energy.
Of course, as Kazakhstan’s economy grows, so should all trade volumes at Aktau — especially, and importantly, non-oil trade volumes.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
JAN. 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan cut its key interest rate to a record low of 4.8% to combat falling inflation, media reported quoting the Central Bank. It previously cut the key interest rate to 5.5% in October 2013. Falling inflation, marking slower economic growth, is a major concern for Central Banks in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)