Tag Archives: economy

Petrol supplies drop in Kazakhstan

AUG. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Reports from the regions said that queues up to a kilometre-long have been forming outside petrol stations as motorist try to re-fuel their cars.

In the northern city of Uralsk only four of 11 petrol stations were serving motorists without vouchers.

A combination of low refining capacity while upgrades are made; the devaluation of the tenge currency, which has made imports more expensive; restrictions on the quantity of imports have reduced petrol supplies.

Officials have said that they are working to bring the situation under control but frustrations threaten to bubble over.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazrbayev relies, to some degree, on the people becoming increasingly rich and comfortable for his popularity. If this starts to reduce, or become visibly impaired, his popularity may drop.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Petrol shortages have worsened in Kazakhstan over the past few months.

Kazakh president question the Eurasian Economic Union

AUG. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) is still a few months from coming into existence and yet Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is already threatening to quit the Russia-led alliance.

In an interview with a local TV station, Mr Nazarbayev said he wouldn’t be afraid of quitting the EaEU if the group was damaging the national interests.

“Our independence for which our forefathers fought is our greatest asset,” he said. “First, we will never sacrifice our independence. Second, we will do everything to defend it.”

Mr Nazarbayev’s comments are important as they come against the backdrop of fighting in Ukraine, where Russia is accused of supporting pro-separatist forces. Kazakh officials have become increasingly nervous that the Russia dominated north of the country may look to secede with Russia’s support.

Although economics and business interests weren’t mentioned by My Nazarbayev, there was also a clear underlying message.

Kazakhstan’s increased association with Russia has hurt it economically. Russia’s economy is so important for Central Asia that if it is impinged, this economic malaise is felt further down the chain.

The Eurasian Economic Union will come into place in 2015 and will be a direct descendent of the current Customs Union. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are members Customs Union. Kyrgyzstan and of the Armenia plan to join the group in the next few months.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Kazakh President declares offshore amnesty

SEPT. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Under an amnesty declared earlier this year by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, people can legalise companies and cash held offshore without being taxed over the next 12 months, media reported. Mr Nazarbayev wants to bring an estimated $10b into the economy through the amnesty.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Economic boom in Georgia

AUG. 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – For the full year to end-July, its grew by 7.2%, a rise from 6.2% for the 12 months to the end of June, Georgia’s statistics agency said.

This growth far outstrips other countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Georgia is less reliant on Russia’s economy, which has been faltering on sanctions imposed on it since fighting broke out in Ukraine.

Instead, Georgia is increasingly looking to the European Union for economic growth. This month it will receive another boost when its accession into a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU comes into force. This will give it products — especially agriculture products, wine and water — a boost in Europe.

To coincide with this, Moody’s the ratings agency increased Georgia’s outlook to one notch below investment grade.

“We hope to see new businesses oriented on exporting their goods to the EU market and this, in turn, will lead to the diversification and growth of exports,” Mikheil Janelidze, deputy minister for the economy and sustainable development, told eurasiaNet.org.

In comparison, Armenia’s economy is faltering because of its over-reliance on Russia. Officials there are beginning to sound increasingly worried, also, about its impending admission to the Russia-led Customs Union.

In Central Asia, too, economies are under increasing pressure because of their over reliance on Russia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Economy slides in Armenia

SEPT. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s economy grew by only 2.3% in the second quarter of this year compared to a year earlier, the national statistics agency reported.

The low growth underscores concerns about the Armenian economy. In August, the Central Bank cut its full year growth forecast to between 3.6% and 4.2% from 4.1% and 4.8% because of the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy. The health of the Russian economy is vital to Armenia.

Other international economic organisations have followed and warned that economic growth in 2014 will be lower than growth in 2013.

This is, of course, worrying for Armenian officials who are looking to boost the economy. The danger for Armenia is that it’s trapped in having to follow Russia.

Armenia is surrounded by enemies, mainly Turkey and Azerbaijan, and looks to Russia for support but with the Russian economy increasingly fragile because of sanctions this is dangerous.

And Armenia appears destined to join the Russia-led Customs Union later this year. These are definitely difficult times for Armenia’s policymakers.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Uzbekistan wants migrants to return

SEPT 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Regions across Uzbekistan have started work on a government edict to try and lure the thousands of Uzbeks working abroad back home, even though the economy is looking decidedly dodgy and the chances of full time employment are low.

Uznews.net, an Uzbek opposition website, reported that Samarkand, the second largest city in the country, has proposed all migrants who return will get given a job.

“I witnessed people like myself being forced to live a nomadic life in dirty conditions, without rights in a foreign land,” the website reported one Samarkand resident as saying in a propaganda drive.

“If we were to work as hard at home as we work in Russia, we would make good money.”

The drive to persuade migrants to return to Uzbekistan apparently came in July from Uzbek PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

It also coincided with news that Russia was going to make it more difficult for migrants to enter and also that the sanctions imposed on Russia since fighting in Ukraine started has reduced demand for casual migrant workers. This may have dampened demand for migrants from Central Asia who would typically do the cleaning and building jobs around Moscow and other large Russian cities.

Even so, Uzbekistan relies heavily on remittances from workers based in Russia and working on a campaign to encourage them back home is likely to be counter- productive.

Uzbekistan has plenty of infrastructure of its own to deal with, including crumbling road, rail and power networks, so, possibly, calling on more people to move back to Uzbekistan is counter productive.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Inflation climbs in Kazakhstan

SEPT. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kazakhstan edged up to 7.1% for the year to end-August, the top of the Central Bank’s bandwidth. The Central Bank aims to keep inflation between 6% and 8%. Central Asia’s economies have been under pressure from the sanctions on Russia. Inflation increased by 0.4% in August.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Azerbaijan’s real estate boom

AUG. 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Along with Azerbaijan’s economy its real estate market is growing in size and maturity.

Media reports quoted figures released by the Central Bank saying that turnover in the real estate sector had grown by nearly 30% in the first six months of the year compared to the same time last year.

These figures are important, and they generally follow a trend across all the macro-economic data in Azerbaijan, but there is also more to the story.

In an interview with the abc.az news website, Yalchin Osmanov, a real estate manager in Baku, explained how the market was maturing.

“Previously, the market was more chaotic, as far as the prices are concerned,” he said. “Now the prices are distinctly graded by real estate location, quality of buildings and many other factors.”

So, the market is more organised with more transparent prices, but what about the buyers?

Mr Osmanov, again, explained.

“Previously people preferred to purchase real estate by cash, now most people rely on long-term credit or purchase in instalments with an initial contribution and subsequent monthly payments,” he said.

Again, this correlates with a general rise in consumer borrowing in Azerbaijan. The main risk to the economy from the real estate sector is unchecked or poorly planned consumer borrowing. International analysts have already warned Azerbaijan that is needs to rein this in.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)

Kazakhstan’s Halyk Bank posts strong data

AUG. 22 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan’s second largest lender, increased its full year profit estimate by 10% to 100m tenge ($550m) after a strong first half of the year. The data is positive for Kazakhstan’s banking sector which is looking to rebound from the Global Financial Crisis.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 197, published on Aug. 27 2014)

Kazakhstan’s economy grows 4%

AUG. 18 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4% between January and July, Alikhan Smailov, head of the Kazakh statistics committee, said. This is lower than predicted at the start of the year because of the impact of sanctions on Russia over its alleged arming of rebels in Ukraine.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 196, published on Aug. 20 2014)