JAN. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Nurlan Smagulov, head of the Astana Motors car dealer and an influential businessman, stepped into the debate over the Kazakh tenge. At a press conference, he said policymakers should not devalue the currency for the second time as this would undermine its credibility and knock consumer spending.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Washington-based Heritage Foundation said that weak rule of law in Kazakhstan had supressed its position in its global rankings on economic freedom. In this year’s ranking, Kazakhstan dropped six places to 69th in the list of 178 countries.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Air Astana CEO Peter Foster
said 2015 would be a tough year because of economic and political
turmoil across the region. His comments highlight the uncertainty
that businesses are facing. Last year, Air Astana increased its
passenger traffic by 3%. Profit rose by 35% from 2013, mainly
because of a drop in oil price.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In new 2015 predictions, the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said
Kazakhstan would grow by 1.5% this year, a sharp drop from the 5.1%
predicted in September. The EBRD downscaled Kazakhstan’s growth
estimates because of ongoing rouble and oil price falls.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Nazarbayev summons his chief economic lieutenant for talks>>
JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan
Nazarbayev summoned the head of Samruk Kazyna, the country’s
sovereign wealth fund, for crisis talks over the falling price of
oil and the drop in the value of the Russian rouble.
The meeting highlights just how worried Mr Nazarbayev and his
senior ministers are about the recent economic downturn. Most major
financial institutions now expect the Kazakh economy to grow by
only 1.5% this year, a relatively small amount.
When Mr Nazarbayev announced last year a new economic policy, he
aimed to enter the New Year with a Keynesian industrial programme
that would have injected billions into construction projects and
subsidies.
Currency depreciations and oil markets, however, have shattered the
plan.
After his meeting with Mr Nazarbayev, Umirzak Shukeyev, the Samruk
Kazyna chief, said: “The goal is to reduce administrative costs by
20% and investment engagements by 18%.”
This, then, is the opposite of what had been promised.
The most feared buzzwords on the streets from Almaty to Atyrau are
devaluation and austerity. Several consulting and investment firms
have forecast a devaluation in the first quarter. The research
branch of Kazakhstan’s second largest lender, Halyk Bank, told
Bloomberg that they deem a depreciation of the tenge as inevitable.
The leader of the National Business Association, Rakhim Oshakbayev
publicly asked the government to protect private companies from the
risk of devaluation (Jan. 20).
In Kazakhstan, the government is expected to act to reverse the
economic downturn but with no significant increase in hydrocarbon
and commodity output, its only option is to dig into the reserves
of the sovereign fund and hope for the best, or so it often seems.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.
In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.
“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.
“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”
Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.
Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.
The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.
In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
ENDS
Copyright — The Conway Bulletin
JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Price changes in Armenia have become increasingly erratic as the country tries to deal with the fallout of the Russian economic slowdown. In August, media quoted the national statistics agency as saying that deflation in Armenia measured 5.2% but for the rest of the year inflation averaged 6.5%.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Remittances from Russia fall>>
JAN. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — As the Russian rouble falls in value, families of Azerbaijani migrants working in Russia face an increasingly frustrating economic headache.
The Azerbaijani manat has doubled in value against the Russian rouble in the last five months ago. This means that the Russian roubles sent back by Azerbaijani workers to their families are now worth half.
Unofficially around 2m migrants from Azerbaijan work in Russia. They send home about $2-3b a year, Azerbaijani economists have estimated.
Gulsara Qurbanova, a mother of three said she and her children live on money her husband sends from Russia. “Before he used to send us around 35,000 roubles a month and we received around 800 manat when we converted it,” she said. Her voice was strained with worry.
“Now it’s about half that. Obviously we face financial hardship because of it.”
The drop in the value of the rouble is hitting exports from Azerbaijan to Russia too.
Fuad Garibov from Khachmaz, a northern town in Azerbaijan said he has decided to hold on to a consignment of dates that he had intend to sell in Russia. “If I sell it now, it’s obvious that I will lose, he said.
“I hope that something will change soon.”
Azerbaijan’s economy is also reliant on oil and gas sales. With energy prices halving over the last six months, the Azerbaijani economy, which once looked so buoyant, is looking strained.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The market may have priced in
another devaluation but Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the Kazakh
Central Bank, said he would not allow fluctuations in the currency.
Mr Kelimbetov has been saying for months that despite the falling
Russian rouble and a drop in oil prices, the Kazakh tenge would not
devalue.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) halved its predictions for Azerbaijan’s growth rate in 2015 to 1.5% from 3% in 2014. The downturn in the Russian economy and the fall in the value of oil have hit Azerbaijan.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)