Tag Archives: economy

Comment: Cameron tours Central Asia to secure migrant labour routes

APRIL 23 2024 (The Bulletin) — The British government has framed David Cameron’s trip to Central Asia as a push to persuade the region’s leaders to take a pro-West stance on global affairs, particularly around the war in Ukraine.

But this is only part of the British foreign minister’s visit. The other part is strengthening labour migration routes.

Over the past four years, Britain has turned to Central Asia to plug labour gaps created by Brexit. It has set up schemes to import migrant workers, particularly from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, to Britain to pick fruit, the sort of job that workers from the Baltics were doing until Brexit made it far more difficult.

Either way, it is a win for the West as the more contact there is between Britain and Central Asia, the more chance there is of breaking down Russia’s hold over the region.

On another level, it has been an awkward trip for Cameron, having to pose for photos with Kyrgz Pres. Sadyr Japarov after he imposed Kremlin-inspired laws that make operations for Western-backed media and NGOs far harder.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

UK foreign minister goes on “grand tour” of Central Asia

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APRIL 22 2024 (The Bulletin) — David Cameron, Britain’s foreign minister, started a “Grand Tour” of Central Asia designed to win backing for migrant labour deals from the region’s presidents and persuade them to support the West over the Kremlin. Lord Cameron becomes the first British foreign minister to visit Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, highlighting the increased importance of the region. Britain has been trying to plug Brexit labour shortages with migrants from Central Asia.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Migrant flow from Tajikistan to Russia has picked up, says airline

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DUSHANBE/APRIL 17 2024 (The Bulletin) — Migrant flows from Dushanbe to Moscow have picked up since a drop after a terrorist attack in Moscow, Tajik media quoted aviation officials as saying.

This is important because Tajik officials had reported that thousands of Tajik workers wanted to leave Russia at the end of March because of an increase in xenophobic attacks and pressure from the police.

Remittances sent back by workers in Russia are vital for the Tajik economy, making up around 25% of its GDP.

An official for Somon Air, a Tajik airline, said that by the end of April passenger traffic between Tajikistan and Russia should have returned to normal.

“We’re seeing a trend towards an increase in passenger traffic in the direction of Russia and back compared with the figures two weeks ago,” the official said.

Somon Air operates between 130 and 140 flights per month between Russia and Tajikistan.

Police arrested four Tajik men for killing at least 144 people at a rock concert in Moscow on March 22, the worst terrorist attack in Russia for 20 years.

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— This story was published in issue 565 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 23 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Comment: Tourism needs to be treated with care

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APRIL 15 2024 (The Bulletin) — Tourism is changing Central Asia and the South Caucasus forever. Of course in the short term, it will bring wealth and spur new business but the long-term risks need assessing too.

The concerns are that tourism accelerates inflation and changes communities by facilitating a huge influx of people and massive construction projects. Georgia and Uzbekistan in particular need to proceed with caution.

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— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Markets: Kazakh Central Bank decides against interest rate cut

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APRIL 16 2024 (The Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge shifted up by 0.6% after the Kazakh Central Bank decided not to cut interest rates against market expectation. It is now trading at 448.4/$1, recovering from around 476/$1 six months ago.

The Central Bank said that inflation in March measured an annualised 9.1% which was slightly above expectations and that although global grain prices were recovering from the shock of the war in Ukraine, domestic pressures were keeping prices high.

“The domestic economy is still under inflationary pressure due to strong domestic demand and unanchored inflation expectations,” it said. Kazakhstan’s Central Bank targets inflation of 5%.

In equities, analysts said that heavy flooding in north and west Kazakhstan had spooked investors who had sold off stock in Kaspi.kz, the Kazakhstan fintech company which owns a super-app that most Kazakhs use to pay bills, pay taxes and buy consumer products.

It traded down as low as $103 in the past week, having hit a high of $123 after listing on the New York Stock Exchange in January.

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— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Floods in north Kazakhstan worsen

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ALAMTY/APRIL 14 2024 (The Bulletin) — The Yesil River which runs through Petropavlovsk burst its banks as the worst flooding in generations continued to ravage north and west Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan’s emergencies ministry said that more than 111,000 people and 106,000 animals have now been evacuated since the flooding started in March. Several people have died.

Kassym Jomart Tokayev, the Kazakh president, has also warned of a potential second wave of flooding, caused mainly by a sharp rise in temperatures which melted tonnes of snow in the mountains and on the steppe faster than usual.

“The government and akimats should quickly solve the problems of accommodating the affected people and providing them with the necessary assistance,” he said. “The situation at the evacuation points should be constantly monitored.”

Rivers across north and west Kazakhstan, as well as in southern Russia, that drain huge areas have swollen and burst their banks. Dams have been breached.

Mr Tokayev has been quick to blame regional leaders for failing to prepare for the floods and for not handing out aid and preparing accommodation speedily.

And reports from the west of the country have said that local anger is rising. In the town of Qulsary, near Atyrau, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that people were demonstrating outside a local government building demanding compensation for the floods.

Demonstrators also said that they were worried about the spread of disease because floodwaters had churned up the decomposed bodies of people buried in shallow graves during Covid.

Analysts have also warned that climate change may make mass flooding in Kazakhstan seasonal.

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— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Tokayev cancels Astana International Forum

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ALMATY/APRIL 13 2024 (The Bulletin) — Kazakh Pres. Kassym Jomart Tokayev cancelled his set piece Astana International Forum because of heavy floods in the north and west of the country.

He said that it would be inappropriate to host the annual event after what he has described as the worst snowmelt floods in 80 years forced thousands of people to flee.

In a Tweet, Mr Tokayev said that the priority for Kazakhstan was to “save financial resources to eliminate the consequences of large-scale destruction and provide assistance to the citizens of the country”.

The Astana International Forum was first held in 2008 and is used by the Kazakh government to show off the country to various international dignitaries. Only the Covid pandemic had previously forced the forum to be cancelled.

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— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Hungary wants more migrant workers from Uzbekistan

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APRIL 8 2024 (The Bulletin) — Hungary wants to attract more migrant labour from Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan reported. Hungary is an observer member of the Organisation of Turkic States, an economic group hinged around Turkey. Hungary qualifies through linguistic links to the pan-Turkic region and has been keen to leverage more business links. Last year, OTP Bank, a Hungarian bank, bought Uzbekistan’s fifth largest bank.

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— This story was published in issue 564 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on April 15 2024

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2024

Kazakh Central Bank keeps interest rates steady

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JAN. 13 2023 (The Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate steady at 16.75% because it said that inflation was still rising, although more slowly than previously. Annualised inflation in Kazakhstan now stands at around 20.3%. In Georgia, the Central Bank said that inflation measured around 9.8%. Kyrgyzstan was the only country in the region to lower interest rates last year.

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— This story was published in issue 532 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Jan. 16 2023

— Copyright the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin 2023

Georgia trade turnover jumps by a third

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JAN. 13 2023 (The Bulletin) — Georgia’s foreign trade turnover, an important indicator on the health of its economy, jumped by 32.8% in 2022 to $19b, the state statistics committee said. Georgia’s economy has rebounded fast and hard since the coronavirus pandemic dented output and demand.

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— This story was published in issue 532 of the Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin, on Jan. 16 2023