FEB. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia unveiled a so-called road map to joining the Russia-led Customs Union by September 2014. Last year Armenia elected to join the Customs Union ahead of further integration with the EU. Importantly, though, this move did not set off the anti-government protests that have rocked Kiev in the past few weeks.
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(News report from Issue No. 170, published on Feb. 5 2014)
DEC. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The world’s attention has focused on the massive street demonstrations against the Customs Union in Kiev but in Armenia another, far smaller, crowd has also been demonstrating against the Russia-led group. And this crowd of roughly 500 were within earshot of the visiting Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
The core of the debate is similar to the issues facing Ukraine. Faced with the option of moving closer to the EU or shifting towards Russia, Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan earlier this year chose the Kremlin. This surprised EU officials but unlike in Ukraine, the decision was generally welcomed in Armenia. Russia is seen as something of a security blanket for Armenia. It controls Armenia’s gas supplies and maintains a large military base in the country. It has also vowed to intervene if Azerbaijan threatens it.
Tigran Abrahamyan, a political scientist in Yerevan said the military aspect of the Customs Union was critical for Armenia. “Armenia will buy military equipment from Russia at a lower price and import it without paying customs fees,” he said.
Most Armenians are not anti-EU but they also understand the importance of military equipment and that is something that Russia’s army, and not the EU, can offer them.
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(News report from Issue No. 163, published on Dec. 4 2013)
NOV. 15 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — The head of the Uzbek parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Sadiq Safayev, poured cold water on Russian reports that Uzbekistan was considering joining the Moscow-led Customs Union. Uzbekistan is interested in developing bilateral relations with Russia but not in join the Customs Union, media quoted Mr Safayev as saying.
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(News report from Issue No. 161, published on Nov. 20 2013)
NOV. 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — So-called roadmaps for Kyrgyzstan and Armenia to join the Russia-led Customs Union will be ready at the start of 2014, media quoted an adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin as saying. Currently only Belarus and Kazakhstan are members of the trade bloc. Analysts have said that Russia is using the Customs Union to expand its sphere of influence.
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(News report from Issue No. 160, published on Nov. 13 2013)
NOV. 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — RIA-Novosti, a Russian news agency connected to the Kremlin, quoted the chairman of the Uzbek Senate, Ilgizar Sobirov, as saying that Uzbekistan would, potentially, be interested in joining the Russia-led Customs Union. Uzbekistan has previously shown little interest in joining the trade bloc.
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(News report from Issue No. 160, published on Nov. 13 2013)
YEREVAN/Armenia, OCT. 2 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — President Serzh Sargsyan’s announcement last month that Armenia will join the Russia-led Customs Union was a surprise both for officials and local people.
Armenia has been negotiating to join the EU for four years and a document representing progress was expected to be signed in November in Vilnius, Lithuania. Still, 14 of the 20 people interviewed by The Conway Bulletin on a mild September evening in central Yerevan supported the move.
Importantly, though, they backed Armenia’s entry into the Customs Union, which also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus, not to improve their economic prospects but because they considered Russia the best defender of peace from perceived Azerbaijani aggression.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are still officially at war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia maintains a large military base in Armenia.
“We’re living in very dangerous times. Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran, war. We’ve no other alternative,” said 33-year-old Minasyan Levon.
Liana Gevorgyan agreed. “We’ve no choice,” she said. “It’s better than feeling insecure.”
Some also said Russia’s traditional Christian Orthodox values were important.
“The EU is not only about trade, it’s also about homosexuals, feminism and a range of Western moral norms which ruins our country and its identity,” said Davit, 40.
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(Correspondent’s Notebook from Issue No. 154, published on Oct. 2 2013)
SEPT. 9 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — There was never much doubt but, eager to clarify after Armenia’s earlier announcement, local media quoted an unnamed source close to the Azerbaijani government as saying that Azerbaijan does not plan on joining Russia’s Customs Union. Armenia said it will join Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in the Customs Union.
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(News report from Issue No. 151, published on Sept. 11 2013)
SEPT. 11 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Serzh Sargsyan, the Armenian president, sent shock waves across the South Caucasus and Europe when he signed Armenia up for Russia’s Customs Union.
The Kremlin set up the Customs Union in 2011 to ease trade between its partners and to draw them in closer. Commentators have dubbed it a Eurasian Union to counter the European Union.
Until Armenia moved into the Customs Union, only Kazakhstan and Belarus had joined. Kyrgyzstan has said it will join and Tajikistan has also been eyeing up membership.
Few though predicted Armenia’s jump towards Russia.
Mr Sargsyan’s decision to move into the Customs Union was a snub for European diplomats.
It’s not, perhaps, that surprising though. Armenia has been casting around for friends to provide a bulwark against Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenia is still officially at war with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is a key Azerbaijan ally.
Russia has given financial and military support to Armenia and maintains a large army base in Armenia. Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, also owns 80% of Armenia’s gas distributor and has been trying to buy the outstanding 20%.
Even so, Armenia’s move into the Customs Union will be felt across the region for years.
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(News report from Issue No. 151, published on Sept. 11 2013)
MAY 29 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — At a meeting of the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union in Astana, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev confirmed that Kyrgyzstan would join the group by 2015. Kyrgyzstan has been talking about joining the union, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, for the past year. Ukraine has been granted observer status.
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(News report from Issue No. 137, published on June 3 2013)
APRIL 23 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russian PM Dmitri Medvedev welcomed Kyrgyzstan’s drive to join the Russia-led Customs Union, which already includes Kazakhstan and Belarus, but said the Kyrgyz government still needed to sign a number of documents. Mr Medvedev was talking to press after meeting Kyrgyz economy minister Temir Sariyev in Moscow.
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(News report from Issue No. 133, published on April 29 2013)