Tag Archives: currency

Max Petroleum suspends trading on AIM

MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The collapse in oil prices forced Max Petroleum, a British-Kazakh oil and gas company, to suspend trading on the London AIM stock exchange.

In a statement, Max Petroleum said it was in negotiations to restructure its debt with Sberbank and other creditors.

“If current negotiations are unsuccessful, or if other events outside the control of the Company require that the Company ceases trading while such negotiations are ongoing, then the consequences will be negative for all stakeholders in the Company,” the company statement said.

Last month Max Petroleum squarely blamed the slump in global oil prices for its problems which wiped out profit margins and deterred potential investors.

The Max Petroleum’s troubles are a microcosm of the problems facing Kazakhstan-orientated companies trying to weather an economic downturn linked to the oil price drop and the turmoil in Russia’s sanction-hit economy.

Almaty-based confectionery plant Rakhat, which South Korea’s LOTTE bought in 2013/2014 in a multi-million dollar deal, also said that it had had to lay off 500 of its 3,800 workers. It blamed unfair competition from cheaper Russian sweets.

Once feted as one of Kazakhstan’s most famous companies outside the extractive industries, Rakhat is now trying to eke its way out of the economic storm — just like most other Kazakh companies.

Max Petroleum, listed on the LSE since 2005, is a small Kazakhstan oil producer with an output of around 200,000 tonnes of oil a year.

In August 2014, AGR Energy, linked to the prominent Assaubayev family, made a deal to buy 51% of Max Petroleum for £37m ($62m), promising to embark on a significant investment to revitalise the company. The slump in oil prices, though, appears to have deterred AGR Energy from follow through with the deal and the promised investment.
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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)

Armenia asks Gazprom for gas deal

FEB. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia has asked Russia not to raise the price it pays for gas despite a drop in the value of its dram currency, media reported quoting the head of the Public Services Regulatory Commission (PSRC) Robert Nazaryan.

Russia’s Gazprom owns the gas distribution system in Armenia and can, therefore, dictate the price that Armenians pay for their gas.

The worry for officials in Armenia is that the dram lost around 15% of its value against the US dollar at the end of last year. Energy prices are set in US dollars, making it more expensive for people in Armenia to buy.

“In this connection at this moment the Armenian side is conducting negotiations with the Russian side for the natural gas price not to be raised because of the dram-dollar fluctuations,” media quoted Mr Nazaryan as saying.

Russia dominates Armenia’s economy and by asking Gazprom to keep the cost of gas consistent, Mr Nazaryan is effectively asking for a subsidy. If Gazprom agrees, Armenia will fall further under the control of the Kremlin.
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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)

Georgia’s Ivanishvili criticises CBank chief

FEB. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s former PM and its richest and arguably most powerful man, accused Central Bank chief Giorgi Kadagidze of not doing enough to protect the country from the economic downturn enveloping the region.

Inflation is rising in Georgia, the lari currency is falling in value and businesses are worried. This has all heaped pressure on the 34-year-old Mr Kadagidze, who has been in the top job at the Central Bank since 2009.

Mr Ivanishvili’s intervention will pile on more pressure.

“The Governor of the NBG (National Bank of Georgia), Giorgi Kadagidze, who was appointed by the previous government, led us with his inactivity and incorrect actions to the lari crisis,” he said in a statement released through an NGO he has set up.

A fall in oil prices and economic turmoil in Russia have triggered inflation across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Some economic experts argue that Georgia’s Central Bank could have done more to dampen the inflation; others have said the government is merely looking for a scapegoat and that Mr Ivanishvili’s intervention is destabilising.

Vakhtang Charaia, director of the Center for Analysis and Forecast at Tbilisi State University, said: “Ivanishvili’s statement could lead to political instability, which in turn would negatively affect Georgia’s investment climate.”
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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)

Azerbaijan devalues manat by a third

FEB. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s Central Bank cut the value of its manat currency overnight by a third in response to the falling value of the Russian rouble and the collapse in oil prices.

Many analysts said that a devaluation was long overdue although none expected such a sharp correction.

And, as a Bulletin correspondent reports from Azerbaijan, the devaluation has angered and frustrated local people. Ordinary people have watched as the value of their savings has plummeted, inflation has soared and economic growth rates have been cut.

This is the major risk that the Central Asian and South Caucasus economies run when trying to deal with an increasingly nasty economic downturn that has enveloped the region. They need to adjust their monetary policies while still retaining the trust of their populations.

Part of the problem has been the speed with which the economic downturn has hit the region.

Most Central Banks in Central Asia and the South Caucasus have allowed their currencies to depreciate slowly although Turkmenistan, and now Azerbaijan, have opted for a sudden devaluation this year.

Kazakhstan is still resisting another correction — it cut the value of its tenge currency by 20% last year — but it must now only be a matter of time before it succumbs.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015

Azerbaijani devaluation angers people

FEB. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s Central Bank slashed the value of its manat currency by a third overnight, a sudden move that took businesses and ordinary Azerbaijanis by surprise.

Previously Azerbaijani officials had said that they would release the manat from its dollar peg, suggesting only a gradual devaluation to adjust to a sharp decline in the Russian rouble.

They have now justified the sudden devaluation by saying that they had little choice but to act in the face of a collapse in oil prices and economic turbulence in Russia.

“This decision was made in order to support diversification of Azerbaijan’s economy, strengthen its international compatibility and export potential as well as to provide balance of payments sustainability,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

On the streets of Azerbaijan’s towns, though, the devaluation was less generously viewed.

Veli, 29, a small business owner in Guba, a northern city, told a Bulletin correspondent that he was in shock.
“I believed the government. I kept my savings in the manat,” he said. “I lost third of my savings. It’s painful. It’s theft by the government.”

He said that he had no choice but to increase the price of the electronic goods he was selling in his shop — fuelling rising inflation.

Sahiba, a mother of two young children living in the city of Gazakh on the western border with Georgia echoed these sentiments. Her husband is a government official but has had his pay cut already this year.

“We’ve got a mortgage,” she said. “I don’t know what we’ll do.”

ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)

Tajik migrants head home

FEB. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The falling rouble has persuaded up to half of St Petersburg’s Central Asian casual work force to return home, the AFP news agency reported.

St Petersburg’s deputy governor, Igor Albin, reportedly said that 50% of the snow sweepers, normally from Central Asia, had left the city.

AFP’s correspondent in St Petersburg directly quoted the head of a snow sweeping company who gave similar insight, although with a lower percentage heading home.

“Almost 30% of the workers who left to spend New Year’s as usual with their families in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan have not come back,” he said.

Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are most vulnerable to this trend. Tajikistan holds the dubious position as the country that is most reliant on remittances. These make up about 50% of its total GDP.

The Tajik Central Bank has tried to prop up its currency against the falling Russian rouble although it has warned that inflation is creeping up.

In Dushanbe, an immigration official told AFP that only half the number of Tajiks were leaving to take jobs abroad this year, compared to the same period in 2013.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)

Georgia CBank props up lari

FEB. 24 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an effort to stop its currency from sliding further, the Georgian Central Bank said it had sold another $40m of its reserves. This is the third time this month it has sold US dollar reserves to prop up its lari currency.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)

Gradual devaluation for tenge

FEB. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the Kazakh Central Bank, hinted for the first time that he was prepared to allow a gradual devaluation of the tenge. He told Russian media: “We will not allow a one-off shock devaluation and instead will work within the framework of a smooth and flexible exchange rate mechanism.”
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)

Azerbaijan to ditch US dollar peg

>>Dollar being dropped to counter oil price slip>>

FEB. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan plans to scrap its currency peg to the dollar to ease the impact of falling oil prices, Azerbaijani Central Bank chief, Elman Rustamov, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

The comments appeared to trigger a reaction on the street. Bulletin correspondents reported long queues forming outside exchange booths in Baku the day after the interview was published. People were anticipating another currency devaluation and were trying to exchange their Azerbaijani manat into US dollars.

Like other countries in the region, Azerbaijan has been trying to deal with the fallout from Russia’s tumbling rouble and the decline in oil prices.

One of the major side-effects of the economic turmoil has been an increase in inflation, as Mr Rustamov pointed out in the interview.

“It is critical to make some kind of corrections to fiscal and monetary policy,” he said. “We consider that we should transit to a more flexible exchange rate regime and gradually we will transit to an inflation-targeting regime.”

He didn’t say when the US dollar peg would be dropped but he did say that the new basket would hold more Euros, reflecting more accurately Azerbaijan’s trade make-up. Economists said they expected a gradual decline in the value of the manat of around 1% every month.

And people in Baku are becoming increasingly concerned about economic instability.

Mahammad Qasimli, 57, a school teacher said he was concerned hyperinflation from the mid-1990s may return.
“Every time when there is economic turmoil, the poor suffer the most,” he said.”
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)

Georgia Central Bank increases rates

FEB. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — As expected, Georgia’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.5% to try and dampen inflation. The Georgian lari has lost 8.5% of its value against the US dollar this year, increasing inflationary pressures.
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)