OCT. 27 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan is preparing a $1.2b tax claim against the Western-led venture developing the Karachaganak gas field, sources at the Kazakh oil ministry told news agencies. The Kazakh government is reportedly seeking a 10% stake in Karachaganak, the only major oil and gas project in Kazakhstan it does not hold a stake in.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 27 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed deals worth over $2b with French President Nikolas Sarkozy in Paris. Aerospace manufacturer EADS will form a joint venture to build helicopters in Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan will buy 300 trains from engineering groups Alstom and nuclear energy company KazAtomProm will form a joint venture with Areva.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 19 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Relations between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have blossomed recently and on Oct. 19 Uzbek President Islam Karimov arrived in Ashgabat for a two day visit, his second trip in 10 months.
Mr Karimov last visited in Dec. 2009 for the opening of a gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to China via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. As if to highlight strengthening Uzbek-Turkmen friendship, Mr Karimov’s press office said trade in 2009 between the two neighbours had increased by 40%.
But relations haven’t always been this cosy and only since Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov took over as Turkmenistan’s president in 2006, have links visibly improved.
There was little official detail on what was discussed but talks were likely to have focused on NATO’s war in Afghanistan, gas export prices and shared concern about the growing influence of Russia in Central Asia — Kazakhstan has joined a Customs Union with Russia and Belarus and an election in Kyrgyzstan handed pro-Russia parties the balance of power — as well as concern at the development of upstream hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
According to Mr Karimov’s press office, the potential of a transport corridor from Central Asia to the Middle East was also on the agenda.
Combined, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have clout in the region. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are major gas, gold and cotton exporters and they hold nearly half of Central Asia’s roughly 60m people.
Karimov’s visit was also well timed. The day after he left, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev arrived in Ashgabat for his own talks with Mr Berdymukhamedov.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 21 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan is still considering selling 20% of state oil company Kazmunaigas in an IPO next year, said Kairat Kelimbetov, head of Kazakh state conglomerate Samruk-Kazyna. Earlier this month he had ruled out an IPO and instead said Kazmunaigas would borrow up to $14b for its $20b investment programme.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 20 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazmunaigas and the Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) won a tender to develop the Akkas gas field in western Iraq near the border with Syria. The Iraqi government will retain a 25% stake in the project and Kazmunaigas and KOGAS will hold 37.5% each.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazmunaigas, Kazakhstan’s state energy company, may borrow up to $14b to fund its $20b investment programme instead of raising cash through an IPO, CEO Kairgeldy Kabyldin said. Kazakhstan wants to speed up development of its energy sector and Mr Kabyldin had said Kazmunaigas was considering an IPO.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Foreign investors will this year beat the $2.8b they invested into Turkmenistan’s energy sector in 2009, Reuters quoted a government official as saying. Turkmenistan has been diversifying its export markets to Europe and China.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 3 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Iranian and Tajik energy ministers endorsed a memorandum of understanding on improving cooperation between the two countries on a range of issues from industry to social affairs, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. Iran and Tajikistan have worked on improving ties through the year.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)
OCT. 5 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh government raised its stake in Kazakhstan miner Kazakhmys, listed in London, to over 26% by buying 11% of the company from chairman Vladimir Kim in a deal estimated at over $1.3b. In a report this year, lobby group Global Witness linked Mr Kim to Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)