ALMATY, APRIL 26 2016, (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh oil producers have stopped exporting via the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline as they become increasingly cost-conscious during this period of low global oil prices, a shift that will damage Azerbaijan’s reputation as an energy transit route from Asia to Europe
Data from BTC showed that Kazakhstan’s latest contribution to the pipeline was in January. This is the first time in years that Kazakh producers have suspended shipments for more than a month.
This confirms the marginalisation of BTC as an export route for Kazakh producers, most predominantly Chevron-led Tengizchevroil (TCO).
Analysts said the ditching of BTC as an export route for Kazakh oil, a route once heralded as the region’s saviour, was linked to both contractual and market constraints.
“The contract between TCO and BTC for shipments recently ended, and with the CPC pipeline expansion adding new export capacity, there is capacity to export more TCO oil via CPC, which is a more economical option for TCO at low oil prices,” said Andrew Neff, senior petroleum analyst at IHS.
The CPC, Caspian Pipeline Consortium, is an oil pipeline that sweeps around the northern Kazakh shore of the Caspian Sea and ends at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. It was designed in the 1990s to ship oil from TCO, Kazakhstan’s largest producer. It’s been gradually expanded and shipped 1.1m barrels/day in March, nearly double its rate of 10 years ago. BTC’s capacity is 1m barrels/day but in March 2016, it transported 721,500 barrels/day.
CPC is a cheaper export route because, to ship oil to the start of BTC, Kazakh producers needs to transport oil across the Caspian Sea.
Mr Neff, the IHS oil analyst, said that as well as hitting BTC’s earnings, dropping Kazakh oil from its mix will also reduce the quality of BTC exports.
“It will change BTC’s overall blend and lower its quality, as Turkmen crude is heavier, plus it will reduce oil transit revenues for Azerbaijan,” he said.
BTC’s main shareholders are BP with a 30% stake and Azerbaijan’s state-owned SOCAR with a 25% stake.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 278, published on April 29 2016)