Tag Archives: Azerbaijan

EBRD says may still lend to Azerbaijan despite EITI row

MAY 4 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) may still lend Azerbaijan $500m for a gas pipeline linking the Caspian Sea to Europe despite Baku quitting the EITI, a global transparency watchdog.

The comments by EBRD chairman Suma Chakrabarti go against an EBRD statement last year which said Azerbaijan would have to pass the EITI’s transparency criteria to receiving funding. The EITI suspended Azerbaijan’s membership in March for failing to improve NGO laws, triggering Azerbaijani officials to walk out of the organisation.

Now, in an interview with Bloomberg, Mr Chakrabarti appeared to suggest that mission creep may be blurring the Oslo-based EITI’s remit.

“What’s happened on the EITI is very, very unfortunate,” Bloomberg quoted Mr Chakrabarti as saying. He then said that people were “worried about some of the criteria that are now being used in EITI”.

Azerbaijani officials complained that the EITI, an acronym for Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative, had drifted from its remit of improving accountability in mining and oil and gas sectors and was now acting as a watchdog on more general democracy issues.

In his Bloomberg interview, Mr Chakrabarti said that the EBRD is “progressing” its finance plans for the Southern Gas Corridor and will give a final decision by the end of 2017.

“The question really is whether the Azeris are adopting the principles, not just by saying they are but by showing transparency in what they do,” he said.

“That’s a judgment we’ll make.”

The $40b Southern Gas Corridor is a network of pipelines that should pump Azerbaijani gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe, reducing its reliance on Russia. It has political backing from the EU and business backing from BP and other multinational but corruption and human rights activists are critical of Azerbaijan and have said that Western companies and governments should not be dealing with it.

At the EITI, the head of its secretariat, Jonas Moberg, told The Conway Bulletin that Mr Chakrabarti’s interview hadn’t undermined its core mission of increasing accountability within the extractive sectors.

“Civil society needs to be able to hold their governments to account if the EITI is going to have a meaningful impact on how the oil sector is governed in a country,” he said.

Kazakhstan, Armenian, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are also members of the EITI. The EITI criticised Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan this year for making inadequate progress against its criteria.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 327, published on May 5 2017)

Currencies: Azerbaijani manat

MAY 5 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite a fall in oil price to $48.48 on May 4 and $49.10 on May 5 (that’s the price of a barrel of Brent) the Azerbaijani manat managed to regain some of the ground it has lost in the past few weeks.

Oil and gas are the driver of the Azerbaijani economy but although prices have fallen from around the $55 mark that OPEC has been targeting the manat was trading at 1.6972/$1, near recent highs.

As the graph shows, since the beginning of April the manat has gain 2.2% against the US dollar while oil prices have fallen by 5.6%. The main reason for the slump in oil prices is a concern about growing US stockpiles of oil.

On the equities side of the markets, KAZ Minerals, formerly called Kazakhmys has had a bumpy ride. It shares surged after strong Q1 results showed that output had grown. It hit a 5-week high of 503.5p on May 1 only to fall heavily in the following few days. A sharp drop in the price of copper, its main export, forced down its share price to 445.6p by May 5.

This was a heavier fall than the fall in the price of copper which dropped 5% to $252.85/lb. The fall in copper prices was linked to concern over China’s slowing industry and the failure of US President Donald Trump to deliver on promises to support copper prices.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 327, published on May 5 2017)

Azerbaijan forces OSCE to close office in Yerevan

YEREVAN, MAY 4 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The OSCE will close its office in Yerevan, its last in the South Caucasus, after Azerbaijan refused to agree to an extended remit.

The closure of the OSCE’s office is a reflection of worsening relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and increased tension around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Each week both sides accuse the other of breaking a ceasefire. Last year, the worst fighting since 1994 killed dozens of people.

The OSCE, Europe’s democracy and conflict watchdog, said it had no choice but to close the office.

“We regret that after months of negotiations compromise on the extension of the mandate proved impossible. The Chairmanship has exhausted all possibilities to resolve the impasse,” it said.

“The Office is expected to close in the coming months.”

For the OSCE to maintain its office in Yerevan it needed the consensus of all 57 its members. Azerbaijan refused to endorse it because of its de-mining operation in Nagorno- Karabakh which it claimed legitimised Armenia-backed rebels’ rule over the disputed region. The US has accused Azerbaijan of deliberating using the issue of de-mining to close the OSCE office.

Azerbaijan closed down the OSCE’s Baku office in 2015 and in 2008, after a Georgia-Russia war, Russia forced the OSCE to close its office in Tbilisi.

Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre based in Yerevan, said the closure of the OSCE office made the West look weak.

“This decision only reaffirms the weakness and lack of Western resolve in the face of a direct challenge from an authoritarian country,” he told The Conway Bulletin.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 327, published on May 5 2017)

Azerbaijan-Georgia gas corridor to complete on time

MAY 1 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In an interview with Reuters, BP’s Georgia country manager, Chris Schlueter said that the middle section of the $40b Southern Gas Corridor would be completed on time in 2018. This is important because it indicates that the entire pipeline system, running from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea coast across Georgia and Turkey into the Balkans and across the Aegean Sea to Italy may be operational by 2020 as promised. The Southern Gas Corridor is supposed to reduce Europe’s reliance on gas supplies from Russia and also boost Azerbaijan’s economy.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 327, published on May 5 2017)

VPS Healthcare to invest in Azerbaijan

APRIL 26 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — VPS Healthcare, a Dubai-based company, is to team up with the state-run Azerbaijan Investment Company to build a pharmaceuticals plant near Baku, media reported. The plant will be one of three new pharmaceutical plants being built in Azerbaijan. Russian investors started construction of pharmaceuticals plant in 2016 and Iranian investors in January.

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(News report from Issue No. 326, published on April 28 2017)

Azerbaijan-focused Abershon to produce by 2019

APRIL 25 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Abershon field in the Azerbaijani section of the Caspian Sea, operated by France’s Total, could start gas production in late 2019 or early 2020, an official at Azerbaijan’s state energy company Socar said. Aberson is considered to be a potentially major gas producer for Azerbaijan which is heavily reliant on the energy sector for revenue. The field was discovered in 2011.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 326, published on April 28 2017)

Azerbaijani court extends ex-minister’s jail sentence

APRIL 26 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Baku extended a prison sentence against former Azerbaijani health minister Ali Isanov by seven years for allegedly harbouring drugs in prison and scuffling with guards. Isanov, who has been in prison since 2005 said that the new charges had been fabricated. He was imprisoned for plotting a coup.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 326, published on April 28 2017)

 

Currencies: Kazakh tenge and Azerbaijani manat

APRIL 28 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Softer oil prices have pushed down the value of the Kazakh tenge and the Azerbaijani manat. The tenge is now trading at 313.8/$1, its lowest value since March and the manat is trading at 1.665/$1, a two week low.

Oil has come off a high on April 11 of $56.23/barrel to be trading at around the $51/barrel mark. The main driver of the dip in oil prices is geopolitical concerns over US intervention in Syria and the spike in tension around the Korean peninsular. Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are price takers and will have to settle for whatever the geopolitical machinations hand them.

On the equities front, it has been a very good fortnight for TBC Bank. It has ragreed a $100m loan from the EBRD to implement the so- called Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreement with the EU. This is designed to boost trade between Georgia and the EU. TBC Bank’s share price has risen by around 20% this year and analysts are positive.

“Looking ahead, TBC Bank is expected to record a rise in its bottom line of 8% this year, followed by further growth of 14% next year,” said share analyst The Motley Fool. “When combined with its relatively low P/E ratio, this puts it on a PEG ratio of only 0.8. This suggests that more share price growth could be ahead for the company.”

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 326, published on April 28 2017)

Azerbaijani state oil fund rises

APRIL 18 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state oil fund Sofaz is worth £33.2b, officials said, a slight increase from $33.147 at the beginning of the year. This figure is important because Azerbaijan has been borrowing cash from Sofaz to top up its state budget which has shrunk with falling oil prices.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 325, published on April 17 2017)

Azerbaijan’s Silk Way buys 10 Boeings

APRIL 18 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s Silk Way Airlines bought 10 Boeing 737 passenger air- planes in a deal which some media reports said could be worth as much as $1.1b. The deal also marks a change of strategy for the Baku-based airline, which is part of the Silk Way conglomerate. Up until now, the airline had focused on cargo transport. It now says that it has drawn up plans to lease the passenger airplanes out.

ENDS

Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 325, published on April 17 2017)