NOV. 9 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit neighbouring Azerbaijan for a two-day Caspian Sea summit starting on Nov. 18, Iranian news agency ISNA said. Iran’s ambassador in Baku later told the Azerbaijani Trend news agency Ahmadinejad would visit on Nov. 17-18 at the invitation of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev.
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(News report from Issue No. 15, published on Nov. 15 2010)
NOV. 11 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Azerbaijan agreed with the European Court for Human Rights that sentences against an opposition newspaper editor for terrorism, tax evasion and racial hatred were illegal but it also upheld a separate 30-month sentence for drug possession and kept him in jail.
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(News report from Issue No. 15, published on Nov. 15 2010)
NOV. 7 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – Political parties loyal to the president won all the seats in a parliamentary election in Azerbaijan. The main opposition party
complained of election fraud. International observers said little democratic progress had been made and that a lack of media freedom had made the election unfair.
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
NOV. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Since Mikheil Saakashvili became Georgia’s president in 2004, the US has considered Georgia its most reliable ally in the South Caucasus.
But this year Georgia, perhaps worried by US President Barack Obama’s drive to mend ties with Russia which it fought in a 2008 war, has steadily improved relations with one of the US’ biggest enemies — Iran.
Iran has also been on a determined charm offensive in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Facing increasing international isolation over its nuclear development programme, Iran has reached out to its former Soviet neighbours — especially Azerbaijan and Tajikistan — and visits regularly for talks on trade and cultural affairs.
On Nov. 3, Iran’s foreign finister Manouchehr Mottaki visited Tbilisi. Alongside improving air links between Tehran and Tbilisi and dropping visa requirements, Iran will open up a consulate in the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi, a favoured holiday destination for Iranians. Iran already pays Georgia for electricity supplies and, importantly for Georgia, has refused to recognise the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
This budding friendship is likely to irritate the US which suspects Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. It has already expressed displeasure at Iranian overtures in the South Caucasus.
On Oct. 19, a few days after Iran’s defence minister visited Azerbaijan, the US sent a senior Treasury Department official to Baku to warn Azerbaijan against improving ties with Tehran.
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(News report from Issue No. 14, published on Nov. 8 2010)
OCT. 27 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s President Dmitri Medvedev said he was “hopeful” Armenia and Azerbaijan could reach the outlines of a peace agreement over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Mr Medvedev was speaking after hosting a meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 12 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan will increase defence spending by 89.7% in 2011, Finance Minister Samir Sharifov said. The extra investment will raise defence spending to 19.6% of the total government budget. Mr Sharifov said half the money would be used to buy military hardware and the rest spent on special projects.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 10 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran’s defence minister, Ahmad Vahidi, led a delegation to Azerbaijan to discuss improving military cooperation. Iran has diplomatic relations with both Azerbaijan and Armenia, who are still officially at war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fuelled by oil and gas exports, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by over 800% between 2000 and 2009. Its defence spending nearly, but not quite, kept up. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that over the same period, Azerbaijan’s defence budget grew by 500%.
But in June this year, Azerbaijan said it would boost defence spending in 2010 by 30% and now finance minister Samir Sharifov has said that in 2011 it will rise by nearly 90% to $3.13b.
SIPRI said that in 2000 Azerbaijan spent $251m on defence. By 2011, then, its annual defence spending will have increased by more than 1200% since 2000, outstripping economic growth.
In terms of government spending, Mr Sharifov said in 2011 Azerbaijan will spend nearly 1/5 on defence. As a proportion of its GDP it will be around 6.5%. The world’s top spenders spend up to 8% of their annual GDP on defence.
But if Mr Sharifov was explicit on the numbers, he was less explicit on how the extra cash would be spent. He said that half of it would go on buying new equipment directly and the rest on special projects. Azerbaijan’s main military concern is tension with Armenia around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan and Armenia are still officially at war.
Armenia-backed forces have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since a ceasefire in 1994 after a war in which around 30,000 people died. Soldiers from both sides still die each year in skirmishes around the mountainous region and the EU has warned the situation could deteriorate.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)