MARCH 3 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a meeting hosted by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, Azerbaijan’s leader Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan discussed the ceasefire around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Analysts say the leaders’ meetings are important to avoid another war over the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 30, published on March 7 2011)
FEB. 23/26 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – As part of a three-day trip to the South Caucasus and the Balkans, US deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg visited Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Statements from the State Department said Mr Steinberg had expressed concern over war-like language from Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 29, published on Feb. 28 2011)
FEB. 20 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – An Azeri solider shot and killed seven fellow soldiers at an army base, the fourth mass killing in Azerbaijan’s military in the last two years. The attacker was also killed in the incident. In June 2010, a soldier killed two colleagues before shooting himself.
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(News report from Issue No. 28, published on Feb. 21 2011)
FEB. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tough, war-like language from both Azerbaijani and Armenian officials over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh is not uncommon but the warning from Azerbaijan’s defence minister, Safar Abiyev, that his country is preparing to retake the region should not be ignored.
Over the last year tension has risen around Nagorno-Karabakh, a landlocked mountainous region. International peace negotiators appear to be making little progress and analysts say another war is not unimaginable.
Every week gunfire shatters a shaky ceasefire imposed over Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994 after 22,000-25,000 people had died and 1m had fled fighting that started in 1992. Analysts say skirmishes killed around 30 soldiers last year.
Mutual distrust and animosity between Azerbaijan and Armenia have also triggered an arms race. Azerbaijan, in particular has boosted its defence spending by about 12 times since 2000.
And the implications of another seemingly localised war in Nagorno-Karabakh are likely to be far wider. The complex series of allegiances and alliances in the South Caucasus could drag neighbours Iran, Turkey and Russia into a conflict.
In a 20-page report published on Feb. 8, the influential Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group summed up what failing to prevent a war would mean. “The fighting would be intense and drawn out, affect large swathes of territory, endanger many civilians and destroy critical infrastructure,” it wrote.
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(News report from Issue No. 27, published on Feb. 14 2011)
FEB. 11 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Media reports quoted Azerbaijan’s defence minister Safar Abiyev as saying Azerbaijan is preparing to retake the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Top Azerbaijani officials have previously threatened war against Armenia but tension around Nagorno-Karabakh has risen recently.
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(News report from Issue No. 27, published on Feb. 14 2011)
JAN. 29 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The US State Department issued a terrorism warning to its citizens in Azerbaijan. It said that “based on terrorist threat information” US citizens were potential targets. It did not specify the nature of the threat but it said US citizens should vary their routes to work.
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(News report from Issue No. 25, published on Jan. 31 2011)
JAN. 31 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – From presidential palaces across the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the spontaneous uprisings that have dislodged Ben Ali after 23 years running Tunisia and now threaten the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt are worrying.
Perhaps the ruling elite in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are most concerned. In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled for 20 years and in Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev effectively inherited the presidency from his father who ran the country from 1993.
This year Kazakhstan had planned to extend the 70-year-old Mr Nazarbayev’s rule until 2020 through a national referendum. That plan has now been scrapped.
In Azerbaijan, discontent has been growing against a ban on headscarves and the authorities have detained several senior Islamist leaders. Immolation triggered the revolution in Tunisia and according to news reports, on Jan. 20 in Azerbaijan a farmer frustrated over police corruption also committed immolation. His death may not have sparked the public outrage that it did in Tunisia but the authorities are wary.
In Yerevan, protesters angry about corruption and mismanagement have been gathering for the biggest rallies against Armenia’s government since 2008 when 8 people died in clashes between protesters and soldiers.
The Rose Revolution swept Mikhail Saakashvili to power in Georgia in 2003 and, tellingly, its elite have given Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution a relative quiet reception. A few years ago Mr Saakashvili may have applauded the Jasmine Revolution but in the last three years he has faced a wave of discontent and now it is viewed as a potentially destabilising factor.
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(News report from Issue No. 25, published on Jan. 31 2011)
JAN. 24 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Sporadic shooting around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has killed one Azerbaijani and injured two Armenians in the last week, RFE/RL reported. The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan discussed worsening tension around Nagorno-Karabakh at a meeting in Moscow hosted by the Russian foreign minister.
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(News report from Issue No. 24, published on Jan. 24 2011)
JAN. 12 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan signed a deal to supply Iran with gas for the next five years. A spokesman for SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, said that from Feb. 1 it would export 1b cubic metres of gas to neighbouring Iran in 2011. Over the last year, Iran has been steadily improving relations with Azerbaijan.
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(News report from Issue No. 23, published on Jan. 17 2011)
JAN. 13/5 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso visited Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to try to persuade them to supply gas to Europe through planned routes running from the Caspian Sea across the South Caucasus. EU officials said Azerbaijan had committed to supplying gas and that Turkmenistan had pledged closer cooperation in 2011.
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(News report from Issue No. 23, published on Jan. 17 2011)