Tag Archives: Armenia

IMF assesses Central Asia and S.Caucasus

OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.

With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.

Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.

The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.

IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):

Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)

Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)

Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)

Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)

Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)

Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)

Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)

Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)

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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)

Iranian defence minister visits Baku

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OCT. 10 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Iran’s defence minister, Ahmad Vahidi, led a delegation to Azerbaijan to discuss improving military cooperation. Iran has diplomatic relations with both Azerbaijan and Armenia, who are still officially at war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)

Azerbaijan’s booming defence budget

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OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fuelled by oil and gas exports, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by over 800% between 2000 and 2009. Its defence spending nearly, but not quite, kept up. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that over the same period, Azerbaijan’s defence budget grew by 500%.

But in June this year, Azerbaijan said it would boost defence spending in 2010 by 30% and now finance minister Samir Sharifov has said that in 2011 it will rise by nearly 90% to $3.13b.

SIPRI said that in 2000 Azerbaijan spent $251m on defence. By 2011, then, its annual defence spending will have increased by more than 1200% since 2000, outstripping economic growth.

In terms of government spending, Mr Sharifov said in 2011 Azerbaijan will spend nearly 1/5 on defence. As a proportion of its GDP it will be around 6.5%. The world’s top spenders spend up to 8% of their annual GDP on defence.

But if Mr Sharifov was explicit on the numbers, he was less explicit on how the extra cash would be spent. He said that half of it would go on buying new equipment directly and the rest on special projects. Azerbaijan’s main military concern is tension with Armenia around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan and Armenia are still officially at war.

Armenia-backed forces have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since a ceasefire in 1994 after a war in which around 30,000 people died. Soldiers from both sides still die each year in skirmishes around the mountainous region and the EU has warned the situation could deteriorate.

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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)

Armenia and Azerbaijan row over a prison death

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OCT. 6 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenia and Azerbaijan argued over the death of an Armenian man found hanged in an Azeri jail. Azerbaijan said it had arrested Manvel Saribekyan for spying and that he had committed suicide. Armenia said Saribekyan was a herdsman who accidentally strayed into Azerbaijan and that he had been murdered.

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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)

Fighting intensifies around Nagorno-Karabakh

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SEPT. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The EU’s envoy to the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, warned that intensifying skirmishes around the enclave of Nagnoro-Karabakh could spin out of control. In an interview with Reuters, Mr Semneby said more international monitors were needed to strengthen the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

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(News report from Issue No. 6, published on Sept. 9 2010)