Tag Archives: Armenia

Business comment: Eurasian Bank Council

NOV. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Central Banks in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have had a rough year. Keeping up with the strengthening dollar and the falling rouble while monitoring inflation has been a tough test.

In an attempt to stick together during the economic downturn, some of the central bankers appear to have decided to use old infrastructure to continue their meetings and coordinate policies.

Confusion, however, clouds the various structures that are still in place.

The new body which met in Almaty this week was renamed the Eurasian Council of Central Bank Chiefs and is a spin-off of the now- defunct Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC).

It doesn’t overlap with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) because Armenia is not in it and is no longer representative of the old EurAsEC, which officially closed down last year, as Uzbekistan is not a member.

And this says a lot about just how confusing economic integration has been in the region.

Since the EurAsEC was disbanded, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has become the integrationist body. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia are part of the EEU.

So why brand it as EurAsEC? Why is Armenia out of the picture?

“Pressing economic questions” are the rationale behind this new body, according to Kazakhstan’s Central Bank.

The countries that form the new body are all in the midst of an economic crisis, but so are other countries that were not invited to the Eurasian banking council.

With the EEU in place and Tajikistan lined up to become a member, the decision to revive such a strange body, rather than another, is difficult to understand.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 258, published on Nov. 27 2015)

Armenia-EU finalise deal

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia could finalise a deal with the EU before the end of the year, Armenian foreign minister Edward Nalbandian was quoted as saying. For the EU a framework deal with Armenia, a member of the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union, would be an important victory, especially after the rejection of the Association Agreement in 2013. For Armenia, close links with the EU are important to maintain.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Iran-Armenia sign deal

NOV. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Officials from Iran and Armenia have signed deals which will improve cross-border trade insurance claims and investigations, media reported. The deal underlines the advanced relations between Armenia and Iran. The neighbours need each other to boost trade.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Currencies: Kazakhstan’s tenge, Kyrgyzstan’s som

NOV. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge was steady this week, trading at around 307.2/$1, off an all-time low against the US dollar of 311/$1 earlier in November.

There is still much speculation by analysts on just how monetary policy in Central Asia’s biggest economy is going to change under new Central Bank chief Daniyar Akishev. He said that inflation was too high and appeared to make this his priority.

With this in mind, expect another interest rate rise at the Central Bank’s policy meeting next month — if the policy wonks don’t cancel it again. There are, though, two urgent problems, it seems to me, with the Kazakh monetary policy. People don’t know what it is or whether it works.

The new key interest rate — overnight repo rates — was only introduced in September. It was raised in October to 16% from 12% and then ignored in November when the Central Bank cancelled its policy meeting at the last moment. Does this interest rate have any credibility? Does the market even care about it? It doesn’t appear to have had any effect so far.

And Mr Akishev appeared to acknowledge as much when he said that a fall in oil price would send the tenge tumbling further. Oil prices, outside the Kazakh Central Bank’s control, are the driver of tenge value and not its key interest rate.

In neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, the som currency did continue to set new records against the US dollar. It hit an all-time low on Friday of 72.5/$1 versus 71.9/$1 at the start of the week. On Oct 1, the som had been valued at 68.8/$1, meaning that it has lost over 5% of its value in the past seven weeks.

As the Bulletin reports in the main section of the newspaper, information coming out of Turkmenistan is that its manat currency has devalued and that the government has placed restrictions on the amount of cash people can withdraw from the banks. Earlier this month, The Bulletin also reported on the devaluation of the Uzbek soum.

Even staunchly controlled currencies are feeling the pressure, it seems.

And over in the South Caucasus, it is a similar story. Since its sharp 33% devaluation in February, the Azeri manat has been kept steady but analysts have increased chat of a need to devalue again.

Both the Armenian dram and the Georgian lari were steady through the week.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Inflation rises in Armenia

NOV. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Prices in Armenia grew by 4.4% in the first 10 months of the year, media quoted the National Statistics Service as saying, pointing to high overall inflation for 2015.

Inflation has forced its way back onto the top of Central Bankers’ agenda this year. A collapse in local currencies’ values against the US dollar has triggered a sharp rise in prices for energy imports and domes- tic electricity production.

Inflation in Armenia is probably lagging inflation in neighbouring Georgia because the government has chosen to suck up the cost of the electricity price rises rather than pass

it on to consumers after a series of major demonstrations in the summer. In Georgia, the government has more successfully passed the cost of the electricity production on to consumers.

But, importantly, with another two months of the year to be factored into the final calculation, inflation in Armenia is already running above the initial estimates in the 2015 budget.

Trade turnover is also down, 20% lower in the first 10 months of the year compared to the same period in 2014. This is generally in-line with other economies across the Central Asia and South Caucasus region.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Polymetal raises Kazakh gold reserves and buys in Armenia

NOV. 13/16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Russian miner Polymetal upgraded gold reserve estimates at its Kyzyl mine in eastern Kazakhstan and said it had bought a 75% stake in Armenian diamond mine Lichkvaz that it didn’t already own.

Both the reserve upgrade at Kyzyl and the buyout of Lichkvaz will give the mining industries in Armenia and Kazakhstan a major boost.

At the Bakyrchik mine at its Kyzyl project, Polymetal said that a feasibility study had upgraded the size of gold reserves there by 8% to 29.2m tonnes.

Polymetal will run further exploration works until the end of 2016 and expects to reach full output capacity at the mine in 2019. Polymetal said it is ready to invest $328m for the next phase of the project.

Polymetal CEO Vitaly Nesis said in a statement: “With significantly reduced capital expenditure, compelling high-grade reserves and straight- forward execution plan, Kyzyl is set to become a significant free cash flow contributor for Polymetal.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Currencies: Kyrgyzstan’s som, Kazakhstan’s tenge

NOV. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kyrgyz Central Bank intervened in the currency market, selling around $14m on Friday to halt the fall of the som. It still fell 3% over the week finishing at 72.1/$1.

In Kazakhstan, the tenge was stable at 307/$1, although it reached a record low of 312/$1 on Monday.

The Georgian lari was stable at 240/$1 throughout the week.

In Armenia and Uzbekistan, currencies fell faster than previously. The Armenian dram lost 1% to 480.9/$1 and the Uzbek sum fell by 0.5% to just above 2,700/$1 on the official market. On the Black Market, the US dollar is reportedly selling at 6,200sum.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Armenia cuts interest rates to counter low prices

NOV. 10 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 9.75%, its lowest level since January, because of slowing inflation.

The interest rate move highlights the delicate balance that Central Banks across Central Asia and the South Caucasus are having to strike between defending their currencies and stimulating growth to navigate through a deepening economic crisis.

The Central Bank said a drop in commodities prices and slowing global demand had dented price growth.

It said that inflation last month measured 0.4%, compared to 1% in October 2014. Overall annualised inflation measured 1.9% for the 12 months to the end of October.

“The board estimates that this trend will continue in the coming months and will have a deflationary impact on domestic prices,” the Central Bank said of weakening global commodities prices.

Armenia’ currency, the dram, has dropped by 15% this year against the US dollar. Its interest rates had risen to 10.5% in February but prices in Armenia have slowed, dragging down overall inflation.

The biggest problem for Armenia, like most of its neighbours in the South Caucasus is the recession in Russia.

This has hit vital remittance flows and also savaged is key export market. The Armenian dram is now overvalued against the Russian rouble and demand inside Russia has also dropped, hitting overall export potential.

This month, as the Bulletin reports in this week’s Business News, the country’s biggest fish farm business declared itself bankrupt. Its biggest market had been Russia and this market had disappeared.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

EU-Armenia to conclude deal

NOV. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Final negotiations between the EU and Armenia over a deal to replace a failed 2013 association agreement should be concluded by the end of the year, Karen Nazaryan, deputy Armenian foreign minister said. The deal is important as it increases EU interaction with Armenia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Armania increases electricity exports

NOV. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia wants to increase exports of electricity, natural resources minister, Levon Shahverdyan, said, more evidence that it wants to become a region energy exporter. Iran and Georgia are both dealing with power shortages.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)