MAY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – On a visit to Tashkent, US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns tried to woo Uzbekistan’s leaders by pointing to Ukraine and warning of the dangers that Russia still represents. Mr Burns said that the US’ commitment to Uzbekistan and the Central Asia region was enduring.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s government said that it had drafted a road map for its entry into the Russia-led Customs Union (CU). The economic union also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus. Armenia also plans to join this year. Kyrgyzstan’s membership of the CU should also allow Tajikistan to join.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan has temporarily banned alcohol imports from Italy, France, Scotland, Belarus and Russia because some of the labelling does not meet requirements laid out by the Customs Union, media reported. It’s unclear exactly what guidelines the alcohol importers have failed to hit.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an interview with Tajik media outlet Asia Plus, Jorg Frieden, executive director at the World Bank in charge of its projects in Central Asia, underscored the eggshells the Bank and other international organisations must tread over when dealing with large scale energy projects in the region.
The Bank’s endorsement of hydroelectric projects, whether from a technical or financial point of view, is particularly important for Tajikistan, a country full of hydro potential, but with a track record of failing to attract foreign investment.
Dushanbe is also locked in a perennial conflict over its hydropower ambitions with downstream Uzbekistan. Uzbek President Islam Karimov has said that upstream dams in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan could trigger water wars if constructed.
The World Bank has already pledged $526m towards CASA-1000, a project that aims to deliver power from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to electricity-deficient Afghanistan and Pakistan further south.
Mr Frieden reiterated the bank’s support for CASA-1000 while acknowledging that Uzbekistan strongly opposed it.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – An on-off border row between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has flared up again, according to media reports.
Around 60 people were injured in a fight between villagers on each side of the border. Various cargo and trucks were destroyed.
This is a potentially dangerous issue and could destabilise the restive southern edge of Kyrgyzstan and the wider Ferghana Valley region, the most densely populated area of Central Asia.
Talks between the two governments over the delimitation of the 300km-long disputed border have been moving, at a sluggish pace, through out the year.
In January, a shootout between opposing forces injured several soldiers. As with many parts of Central Asia, the borders around southern Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan appear to have been draw up to generate strife and problems. Communities of different nationalities intersect each other; enclaves generate flashpoints.
As well as adding to the daily inconveniences experienced by communities living close to the border, the clashes hurt big business. In March South-Kyrgyz-Cement reported that sales had fallen as a result of Kyrgyzstan’s closure of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border, which lasted over two months after the Jan. 11 shootout.
A Kyrgyz-owned gas station and containers carrying cement and coal were among the property burned during in the most recent conflict.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan cuts its key interest rate to a three year low last month because of a drop in inflation, Elman Rustamov, head of the Central Bank, said.
The Azerbaijani economy is generally on the up. There are some weak points, such as loose controls over consumer borrowing, but the Central Bank is managing to maintain growth rates as well as keeping inflation under control.
So confident has the Central Bank been feeling that on April 30 it cut its key interest rate to 4.25% from 4.75%. This was the first rate cut for 14 months and marks the lowest level since 2011.
Mr Rustamov explained the thinking behind the rate cut.
“Inflation in the country is at its lowest level. By the outcome of the first quarter, the inflation in the country stands at 2%,” he said.
“Interest rates need to be reduced. They should be reduced to such a level that they will be suitable both for the population and for businesses.”
Of course slowing inflation can also mask other problems. There may have been a slowdown in consumer demand and the economy may need a nudge.
But relaxing interest rates also presents a risk to Azerbaijan’s economy. Recent reports from international economists have all highlighted the threat from consumer borrowing. Moody’s said that consumer loans would grow by 20% this year, compared to 25% last year.
Cutting interest rates is hardly going to curb this trend.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan Airways is negotiating joining the Sky Team alliance whose members include Air France, Alitalia, three Chinese airlines and others, media reported. The Uzbek national airline has been pushing hard to boost its profile and routes over the past few months.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 13 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Rustavi 2, Georgia’s main television station, is under investigation for alleged wire-tapping, media reported. Georgian society and politics is currently riven through with accusations of deceit and wire-tapping. The former government of Mikheil Saakashvili has accused the new government of a witch hunt.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev appears to have triggered a minor international row by snubbing a meeting of a former Soviet military group in favour of talks with a senior US diplomat.
Mr Nazarbayev had been due to travel to Moscow for a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a military group that includes Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
Instead he decided to meet with the US deputy Secretary of State, William Burns, in Astana.
Officials were quick to deny there was a problem even though all the other CSTO leaders turned up in Moscow for a meeting chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mr Nazarbayev was conspicuous by his absence.
Back in Astana, to make the situation even more uncomfortable for Mr Nazarbayev, diplomats told journalists that Mr Burns had asked Mr Nazarbayev to try and use his influence with Mr Putin to relax Russia’s pressure in eastern Ukraine.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)
MAY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – If more evidence was needed of the burgeoning Turkmenistan- China axis, last week provide it.
First, on May 7, Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, sitting rather comically on an oversize gilt throne, officially opened a new gas processing plant at the Bagtyarlyk field in central Turkmenistan.
The field holds an estimated 1.3 trillion cubic metres of gas which it is pumping to China, just like several other fields in Turkmenistan.
China holds exclusive rights to developing Turkmenistan’s onshore gas fields and the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) paid for the new processing plant at Bagtyarlyk.
Turkmenistan’s gas exports have swelled by a fantastic proportion over the past few years. Reuters quoted a CNPC official saying that last year Turkmenistan exported 20 billion cubic metres of gas to China and that this year the amount would grow to 25bcm. He said the aim was to hit 40bcm of gas exports to China in 2016 and 65bcm in 2020 when the giant Galkynbysh field comes on stream.
According to one source, Turkmenistan already supplies a sixth of China’s gas needs.
Mr Berdymukhamedov can claim much credit for this turnaround. His predecessor was more inward looking, more enthralled with Russia. Mr Berdymukhamedov went after China as a client, a strategy which is clearly paying off.
And a few days after opening the new processing plant, Mr Berdymukhamedov was in Beijing on an invitation from the Chinese president. There he was feted as a major ally, given a state welcome and offered a strategic partnership.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 184, published on May 14 2014)