JUNE 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Continuing to expand its diplomatic reach, Kazakhstan opened its first embassy in Vietnam. Kazakhstan has been eager to spend some of its energy-generated wealth by boosting its presence overseas and has funded new embassies across the world. Asia and Africa have been priority embassy openings.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on June 11 2014)
JUNE 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s parliament ratified a $100m loan from the Asian Development Bank that will be used to finance the construction of a road that will improve transport links between the north and the south of the country. The road, linking Talin and Lanjik, is considered an important part of the general infrastructure upgrade.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on June 11 2014)
JUNE 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Perhaps playing into Uzbekistan’s hands, the shortage of gas in Osh has triggered anger towards the central authorities in Kyrgyzstan.
Under a Soviet engineered system, Uzbekistan supplies Osh and other cities in south Kyrgyzstan with gas. It cut supplies on April 14 because it said that Kyrgyzstan was not keeping to its side of a bilateral arrangement.
Uzbek officials have also declined to negotiate with their Kyrgyz counterparts, leaving people living in the south without supplies.
And anger is brewing.
Osh has seen a few demonstrations but protests have now broken out in Bishkek. People protesting against the lack of gas in Osh merged with others demonstrating against Russia’s Gazprom’s takeover of KyrgyzGaz in April and the government’s drive towards the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. Police were forced to break the protest up but any ground-swell of anti-government feelings in Kyrgyzstan can have serious implications for the government.
It is not surprising that Uzbekistan is being a difficult neighbour. Uzbekistan has been highly critical of Kambar-Ata-2, the Kyrgyz hydroelectric project the Kremlin agreed to finance. In 2012, Uzbek President Islam Karimov said upstream dams such as Kambar-Ata-2 could trigger wars between upstream and downstream countries.
Gazprom’s acquisition of KyrgyzGaz is also a threat to Uzbekistan as it gives the Kyrgyz energy network more firepower. Gazprom has talked also of a north-south gas pipeline in Kyrgyzstan that would cut Uzbekistan out of its supply chain. This, though, is some way off and it will not end Osh’s gas crisis in the short run.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) -The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) claimed responsibility for an attack on Karachi airport in Pakistan on June 9 that killed at least 39 people including the 10 attackers. The IMU formed in Uzbekistan in the 1990s. More recently it has been fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Talks between Kyrgyz and Tajik officials over their border dispute will resume on June 16, media reported quoting a senior Kyrgyz official. This is important as altercations between villagers have intensified this year around the Tajik-Kyrgyz border. In May a mass brawl injured several people.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan is not known as a trading powerhouse, its main export is migrant labour to Russia, but a recent low-level diplomatic meeting in Dushanbe once again highlights the importance of its aluminium smelter.
Tajikistan’s deputy transport minister, Sherali Gandjalov and Georgia’s ambassador in the country, Konstantin Zhgenti met to discuss securing trade routes for aluminium exports from TALCO through the South Caucasus trade corridor, Asia-Plus reported.
Mr Gandjalov and Mr Zhgenti specifically discussed the Georgian port of Poti on the Black Sea coast. Poti is a major transit point for raw materials needed for Tajik aluminium production as well as an export route for finished aluminium products heading to European markets.
But all is not well at TALCO, the state aluminium- smelter. It is saddled with debts and last year laid off 20% of its staff as global aluminium prices bottomed out.
These former TALCO staff will most likely be adding to Tajikistan’s most economically successful export — migrant workers to Russia.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek president Islam Karimov has criticised the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union as a thinly disguised effort to create a broader political group.
Mr Karimov is, perhaps, the first leader from Central Asia to offer such brazen criticism of the Eurasian Economic Union, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pet projects.
Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg reported Mr Karimov saying that joining the Eurasian Economic Union would mean losing national independence.
“They say that they will only create an economic market and it won’t relinquish sovereignty and independence. Tell me, can political independence exist without economic independence?” Mr Karimov said according to 24.kg.
Of course, Uzbekistan is the most unilateral of the Central Asian countries and criticism from Tashkent of the Eurasian Economic Union is not unexpected but Mr Karimov’s comments are particularly barbed and the timing poignant.
Alongside Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are also members of the Eurasian Economic Union which was signed into existence last month at a ceremony in Astana. But Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are all eager to join.
Many Western analysts have said that despite assurances from Mr Putin, the Eurasian Economic Union is little more than a thinly veiled effort by the Kremlin to extend its political power. Clearly Mr Karimov shares these views.
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(News report from Issue No. 188, published on JUNE 11 2014)
JUNE 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alexander Ankvab, de facto president of Abkhazia, one of Georgia’s two breakaway regions, resigned days after protesters stormed his residence and forced him to flee.
The protesters had been complaining of rampant corruption and a struggling economy. Mr Ankvab, elected in 2011 on a five year term, had initially been defiant after he fled demonstrators on May 27 but, apparently, after a meeting with his Russian sponsors he quit. There is little doubt where real power over Abkhazia lies.
Abkhazia has now set a presidential election for Aug. 24 meaning three months of uncertainty.
Although Akhazia’s independence is recognised by only a few countries, mainly driven by Russian pressure, Georgia is a bystander in Abkhazian politics.
Georgia’s impotency was summed up by its minister for reconciliation, Paata Zakareishvili. In an interview with Georgian media he pointed out that Russia had sent Vladislav Surkov, a senior aide to President Vladimir Putin, to mediate.
“Moscow rules there on the ground,” he said. “They are communicating with each other through Russia.”
As with any power change in Georgia’s two breakaway regions, South Ossetia is the other rebel province, this period of flux is a potentially dangerous one for Georgia as it can trigger instability.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)
JUNE 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) -Rumours of another devaluation of the tenge triggered a spike in demand for dollars, media reported. The buying of dollars forced Kazakh Central Bank chief Kairat Kelimbetov to step in and deny that another tenge devaluation was planned. Kazakhstan devalued the tenge by 20% earlier this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on JUNE 4 2014)
MAY 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia is considering dropping visa requirements for US citizens, media quoted deputy foreign minister Sergey Manasarian as saying. Earlier this year Armenia allowed EU citizens to stay 90 days without a visa after the EU relaxed rules for Armenians.
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(News report from Issue No. 187, published on June 4 2014)