Category Archives: Uncategorised

Turkmenistan declares year of neutrality

OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s Council of Elders, a sort of perfunctory rubber-stamping chamber of deputies which confers some sort of plurality on President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s decisions, declared 2015 at the Year of Neutrality.

The declaration itself is fairly standard but it is important as a reminder that Turkmenistan follows a strictly neutral policy.

This means that while other countries in former Soviet Central Asia are becoming increasingly involved in the Russia-led Customs Union — Kazakhstan is already a member, Kyrgyzstan is on the brink of signing up and Tajikistan is eager — Turkmenistan won’t be joining them.

It also, according to the doctrine, will prevent Turkmenistan from taking sides over potential disputes over ownership of the Caspian Sea and its riches. This is important as tension between the Caspian Sea littoral states has been rising over the past few years.

And then there is also the small matter of the Taliban to consider. They have been increasing their activity around the borders of Central Asia recently, pressuring

Turkmenistan, even, into strengthening is border security.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Kazakh tenge to drop in value

OCT. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – With the rouble under increased pressure it has become likely, analysts have said, that the Kazakh government will devalue its currency for the second time this year.

Halyk Bank placed the tenge on a negative watch. The report, no longer available on the website of Halyk’s Financial Department, said the tenge would be around 210/$1 by the end of the year compared to 183/$1 currently. That’s a drop of around 10%.

“In the last three days conditions in Tenge-denominated money markets deteriorated sharply,” Halyk Bank wrote.

“Such changes usually happen before devaluations: demonetization, declining demand for Tenge- denominated assets, the rising cost of holding Tenge mirrored by the rising costs of borrowing, all illustrating a loss of confidence and the deepening of the currency crisis.”

Sabit Khakimzhanov, head of research at Halyk Bank and author of the report, attributed the weakening of the tenge to rising interest rates, rouble trouble, and oil prices below $95 per barrel.

The note will have irritated the Kazakh Central Bank which has been denying that it is planning a second devaluation of its currency. Khakimzhanov said that, unusually, an unnamed party had been buying $200m worth of tenge every day. This, analysts suspected, was the Central Bank trying to shore up its currency.

And, rather mysteriously, a few days after it was put up on its website, the currency note disappeared. Analysts at Halyk Bank told the Conway Bulletin that it was a management decision to take down its report.

Earlier this year, the government devalued the tenge overnight by 20%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Kazakhstan to enter WTO

OCT. 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan will have cleared all the hurdles to their eventual accession into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by the end of the year, media quoted deputy PM Bakytzhan Sagintayev as saying. This is important as Kazakhstan has been negotiating entry to the WTO since the 1990s.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Russian economic slowdown pressures Tajik economy

OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan is deeply concerned about the impact that Russia’s slowing economy will have on its own economic prospects, the deputy economy minister Jamoliddin Nuraliev told the FT in an interview in his office in Dushanbe.

As reported previously in the Bulletin, Tajikistan’s economy is already showing warning signs linked to an impending recession in Russia. Sanctions, imposed by the West because of Russia’s alleged involvement in arming rebels in Ukraine, have started to strangle the Russian economy and those closely linked to it. This includes Tajikistan which is reliant on Russian imports and remittances from Tajiks working in Russia to prop up its economy.

“We are very much concerned about things happening in the Russian economy. We hope it will find a way to stabilise over the next year,” Mr Nuraliev said.

Earlier this month, the Tajik Central Bank raised interest rates to its highest level in two years to battle creeping inflation.

As a substitute for Russia investment Mr Nuraliev said that Tajikistan was counting on large infrastructure projects paid for by China which is looking to increase its influence in the region.

The concern with large Chinese-funded infrastructure projects is that the cash fails to trickle down fully to ordinary Tajiks. Instead, the ringmasters cream off decent proportion of the cash.

Remittances is a more effective way of pushing much needed cash lower down the chain.

Whether China’s large projects materialise or not, Tajikistan is due a rocky period, economically.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Turkmen President wants TAPI work to begin

OCT. 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov once again said he wanted work to begin on building a gas pipeline running across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India by 2015, media reported. The so-called TAPI pipeline is a major project designed to feed gas to India and Pakistan and give economic security to Afghanistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Kyrgyzstan passes anti-gay law

OCT. 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s parliament voted to pass a law that bans so-called gay propaganda, seemingly playing to Russia which has passed a similar law already and against the United States which called the new legislation an attack on democracy. Kyrgyzstan is increasingly leaning towards Russia in world affairs.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Turkmen increases energy ambitions

OCT. 17 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan said it wants to increase its client base for gas supplies, media reported. Turkmenistan’s president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said he had instructed officials to seek out more clients. Turkmenistan has transformed itself from recluse to major energy hub over the past decade.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Georgia and Azerbaijan to open up BTK railway

OCT. 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia and Azerbaijan have opened up their Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line project to outsiders, Azerbaijan’s transport minister Ziya Mammadov said at a conference. The project will link the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea, aiding transport between Asia and the Europe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Kazakh President reshuffles anti-corruption unit

OCT. 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president, Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked Abdrashit Zhukenov and Ali Komekbayev from their posts as the deputy chiefs of the Financial Police and Agency for Civil Service Affairs, part of a strategy to reorganise the agencies in charge of combating corruption.

Mr Nazarbayev has wanted the ministry of finance and the newly-created Agency for Civil Service Affairs and Anti- Corruption to take over managing corruption cases in a high-profile move aimed at grabbing the attention of international investors who are worried about corruption levels as much as people living inside Kazakhstan.

This year a number of high profile officials have been arrested and charged with corruption.

Muslim Omiraev, former deputy at the ministry of agriculture was arrested in December 2013 and sentenced to 10 years in prison (Oct. 16). Earlier in September, police arrested the former governor of Karaganda, Baurzhan Abdishev for corruption. He goes on trial in November.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Kyrgyzstan to boost walnut cultivation

OCT 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan plans to increase the size of its walnut forests to meet rising demand for the nut from consumers in Iran, China, Turkey and south-east Asia, media reported. Kyrgyzstan has very few exports and a boost in walnut sales would give the economy a lift.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)