JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Oil production at the BP-led Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli oil fields (ACG) continued to fall last year despite pledges that the drop would drop, Reuters quoted a source at Azerbaijan’s national statistics office as saying. ACG is Azerbaijan’s largest oil field.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The head of Georgia’s Orthodox Church, Patriarch Ilia II, stepped into the debate on the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo’s right to publish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, images that Muslims find offensive. In a statement, he said that freedom of expression doesn’t grant the freedom to offend.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.
In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.
“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.
“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”
Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.
Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.
The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.
In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
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JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s electricity exports to Afghanistan increased by 38% last year compared to 2013, the Tajik news agency Avesta reported. This is important because hydroelectric power has the potential to become one of Tajikistan’s biggest exports. It needs a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan to realise this potential.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Crowds attracted across much of the region>>
JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — An estimated 1,000 people demonstrated in a Bishkek park against the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo for publishing cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed.
Eyewitness accounts from the city centre park said that protesters held posters declaring: “I am not Charlie. I love my Prophet.”
Other posters read: “We’re against cartoons of our Prophet”.
The “I am Charlie” slogan swept across much of the Western world after Islamic radicals murdered 12 people during an editorial meeting at the magazine’s headquarters in central Paris earlier this month.
Much of the Islamic world, though, has been far more reticent. Reports from Baku and other cities across Central Asia have also suggested that anti-Charlie Hebdo demonstrations have drawn relatively large crowds.
The protests are a reminder that for all the rhetoric of Westernising and of supporting Western military action in Afghanistan, that Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan, and other countries where anti-Charlie Hebdo demonstrations emerged, are predominantly Islamic countries.
And these countries are not simply nominally Islamic, as they are often pictured in the West. There is a strong strain of fairly pious Muslim thought running through these societies.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Price changes in Armenia have become increasingly erratic as the country tries to deal with the fallout of the Russian economic slowdown. In August, media quoted the national statistics agency as saying that deflation in Armenia measured 5.2% but for the rest of the year inflation averaged 6.5%.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Remittances from Russia fall>>
JAN. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — As the Russian rouble falls in value, families of Azerbaijani migrants working in Russia face an increasingly frustrating economic headache.
The Azerbaijani manat has doubled in value against the Russian rouble in the last five months ago. This means that the Russian roubles sent back by Azerbaijani workers to their families are now worth half.
Unofficially around 2m migrants from Azerbaijan work in Russia. They send home about $2-3b a year, Azerbaijani economists have estimated.
Gulsara Qurbanova, a mother of three said she and her children live on money her husband sends from Russia. “Before he used to send us around 35,000 roubles a month and we received around 800 manat when we converted it,” she said. Her voice was strained with worry.
“Now it’s about half that. Obviously we face financial hardship because of it.”
The drop in the value of the rouble is hitting exports from Azerbaijan to Russia too.
Fuad Garibov from Khachmaz, a northern town in Azerbaijan said he has decided to hold on to a consignment of dates that he had intend to sell in Russia. “If I sell it now, it’s obvious that I will lose, he said.
“I hope that something will change soon.”
Azerbaijan’s economy is also reliant on oil and gas sales. With energy prices halving over the last six months, the Azerbaijani economy, which once looked so buoyant, is looking strained.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Spanish authorities
released from detention Kazakh opposition figure Muratbek
Ketebayev. Kazakhstan wants Mr Ketebayev extradited to face
criminal charges, including rebellion. Reports said Spain had still
not made a decision on his extradition.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The market may have priced in
another devaluation but Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the Kazakh
Central Bank, said he would not allow fluctuations in the currency.
Mr Kelimbetov has been saying for months that despite the falling
Russian rouble and a drop in oil prices, the Kazakh tenge would not
devalue.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Murders have strained Armenia-Russia relations>>
JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — A Russian soldier who allegedly killed a family of seven near his base in Armenia will be tried in a Russian military court and not by an Armenian civil court, media reported.
On Jan. 19, a week after six members of the same family died, a six-month-old baby died of wounds sustained in the same attack. No motive has been put forward for the murders.
The news that Valery Permyakov, the soldier who reportedly shot dead the family and then went on the run, will be tried in a Russian military court rather than an Armenian civil court will enflame tension further.
On Jan. 15, three days after the murders, several thousand people demonstrated in Yerevan and Gyumri, where Russia keeps a large military base, calling for the soldier to be handed over to Armenian police.
Reports from the demonstration at Gyumri said that 12 people were injured in fighting with riot police.
Relations between Russia and Armenia are generally cordial — Armenia has joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and also looks to the Kremlin to both support its economy and also to keep the military balance in the region — but the murders and the economic slowdown have strained ties.
For Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan, the murders and the public discontent they have fermented, represent a problem. He needs to ensure that relations with Russia remain good but that the protesters also feel like they are being listened to.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)