MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia accused Azerbaijan of shooting dead two of its soldiers around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. There was no immediate Azerbaijani reaction to the accusation but it does appear to be an escalation. A 1994 cease-fire keeps a fragile peace around Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s deputy PM, Ulugbek Rozukulov, met with the Azerbaijani economy minister, Shahin Mustafayev to discuss increased cooperation and specifically whether Azerbaijan will be able to buy cars that had been built for the Russia market before the collapse of the rouble and the economic crisis.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
FEB. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In a boost to Turkmenistan’s aspirations to expand its client base for gas deliveries, the EU said it was stepping up efforts to diversify its energy suppliers away from Russia.
The Financial Times reported that a long-term energy blueprint drawn up by the EU will emphasis building relations with countries such as Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Algeria.
Russia currently supplies around 27% of the EU’s gas needs, an excessive over-reliance, according to EU diplomats.
Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice-president for energy affairs, said it was sensible to diversify.
“As much as we want to diversify our energy sources, I think the countries around the Caspian equally want to diversify their [export] routes,” he told the FT.
This will please Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. He has said that he wants to increase the number of clients Turkmenistan has for its gas.
China dominates Turkmenistan’s order books. Iran and other neighbours also buy gas but in smaller quantities.
It has previously floated the idea of a pipeline underneath the Caspian Sea linking Turkmenistan directly to pipelines pumping gas from Baku across the South Caucasus, Turkey and into Europe. The problem is that building the pipeline requires serious investment.
Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves in the world and its officials want to supply Europe.
“A huge resource base of hydrocarbons onshore and offshore allows Turkmenistan to increase the exports of natural gas to the world markets, to develop the new routes of its exports in the eastern and the European directions,” the Turkmen energy ministry said after the FT story.
A global drop in energy prices is pressuring Turkmenistan’s economy, forcing the Central Bank to devalue its currency. Part of the problem is Western sanctions on Russia imposed in retaliation for its support to separatists in Ukraine.
But there may be an upside for Turkmenistan, as the row speeds up Europe’s energy diversification.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
FEB. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev called an early presidential election for April 26. Pro-Nazarbayev groups have been asking for an election in order to underline his authority as Kazakhstan deals with a tough economic climate.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
FEB. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz parliamentarians threatened to nationalise the Kumtor gold mine by the end of March unless its Toronto-listed owner, Centerra Gold, agreed to a new joint-venture to run it.
The ultimatum increases the stakes in the long-running battle for control of the gold mine — Kyrgyzstan’s single biggest economic asset.
“We should finally end this epic,” Reuters quoted parliamentary speaker Asilbek Zheenbekov as saying after the parliamentary vote. “Today we adopted a tough resolution.”
The row over Kumtor has dented both productivity at the gold mine based in the eastern mountains of Kyrgyzstan and the country’s GDP as well as its image as a place for foreign investors to set up businesses.
Centerra Gold has accused Kyrgyz nationalists of wiping up public anger against Kumtor through bogus environmental infringements. Kyrgyzstan has said Centerra Gold needs to run and manage Kumtor more effectively.
The Kyrgyz government wants to swap its 32.7% stake in Centerra Gold for a 50:50 joint venture with the company directly in Kumtor. Commenting on Centerra Gold’s full year results last month, its CEO, Ian Atkinson, said he was studying the proposal. This non-commitment may be the source of the frustration felt by Kyrgyz lawmakers.
Now, the issue of Kumtor’s ownership will once again move to the foreground, potentially destabilising the country and damaging for its reputation further.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iranian media confirmed that Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, would make a two-day visit to Ashgabat from March 10. Last week Iranian media had said Mr Rouhani would visit Turkmenistan, although it did not say when or for how long. Turkmenistan-Iran relations are important for the region.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
MARCH 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kenes Rakishev, a 35-year-old Kazakh businessman who is the son-in-law of the country’s defence minister Imangali Tasmagambetov, became a major shareholder in Kazkommertsbank, one of Kazakhstan’s biggest and most prominent banks.
Last year, in a deal with Kazkommertsbank, Mr Rakishev bought debt-ridden BTA Bank from the government.
Now he has swapped his stake in BTA Bank for a 16% stake in Kazkommertsbank. The manoeuvre is part of the merger of the two banks.
It also dilutes Nurzhan Subkhanberdin’s ownership of Kazkommertsbank. Mr Subkhanberdin is based mainly in London and has previously been linked to Kazakhstan’s opposition.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The collapse in oil prices forced Max Petroleum, a British-Kazakh oil and gas company, to suspend trading on the London AIM stock exchange.
In a statement, Max Petroleum said it was in negotiations to restructure its debt with Sberbank and other creditors.
“If current negotiations are unsuccessful, or if other events outside the control of the Company require that the Company ceases trading while such negotiations are ongoing, then the consequences will be negative for all stakeholders in the Company,” the company statement said.
Last month Max Petroleum squarely blamed the slump in global oil prices for its problems which wiped out profit margins and deterred potential investors.
The Max Petroleum’s troubles are a microcosm of the problems facing Kazakhstan-orientated companies trying to weather an economic downturn linked to the oil price drop and the turmoil in Russia’s sanction-hit economy.
Almaty-based confectionery plant Rakhat, which South Korea’s LOTTE bought in 2013/2014 in a multi-million dollar deal, also said that it had had to lay off 500 of its 3,800 workers. It blamed unfair competition from cheaper Russian sweets.
Once feted as one of Kazakhstan’s most famous companies outside the extractive industries, Rakhat is now trying to eke its way out of the economic storm — just like most other Kazakh companies.
Max Petroleum, listed on the LSE since 2005, is a small Kazakhstan oil producer with an output of around 200,000 tonnes of oil a year.
In August 2014, AGR Energy, linked to the prominent Assaubayev family, made a deal to buy 51% of Max Petroleum for £37m ($62m), promising to embark on a significant investment to revitalise the company. The slump in oil prices, though, appears to have deterred AGR Energy from follow through with the deal and the promised investment.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
FEB. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s economy grew by 3.4% in 2014, lower than the expected 5.2%, the country’s statistics office said quoting preliminary data (Feb. 27). The economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus suffered from a general downturn in the second half of last year due to falling oil prices and problems in Russia’s economy.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – IS and other radical Islamic groups have turned southern Kyrgyzstan into a rich recruitment grounds, the head of the Kyrgyz National Security Committee, Rakhat Suleimanov, said. Some Western analysts, though, have questioned the veracity of these claims saying that they allow the security services to clamp down on dissent.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)