Category Archives: Uncategorised

Georgia is heading for a close parliamentary election

APRIL 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The latest polling by the International Republican Institute (IRI), makes uneasy reading for the Georgian Dream coalition.

The poll, released in late March, shows support for Georgian Dream dropping to 35%. This is bad news for Georgian Dream, but so is the story told by the other numbers: 14% of likely voters say they support the United National Movement (UNM) of ex-president Saakashvili, 12% say they support nobody, and 11% refused to answer.

If these numbers look familiar to Georgian Dream politicians, it’s because they are disturbingly similar to a poll taken in summer 2012 by IRI’s sister organization, the National Democratic Institute (NDI). That poll, now infamous in Georgian political history, was the last taken before Georgian Dream swept to victory in November 2012, and everybody interpreted it all wrong.

In summer 2012, 37% said they’d vote for the incumbent UNM, while 12% responded Georgian Dream. When Georgian Dream went on to win almost 60% on the day pollsters were flummoxed, and many uncharitably said NDI were in cahoots with the UNM. In fact, that poll revealed much more about Georgian’s voting habits than anyone expected. 22% of respondents said they did not know who to vote for, and 21% refused to answer. Fear, embarrassment and a mistrust of polling organizations had led 43% of Georgians to keep their opinions to themselves. On the election day, this 43% gave their votes to Georgian Dream and surprised everyone by precipitating Georgia’s first peaceful transfer of power.

The same thing is happening in reverse in the latest IRI poll. The UNM scored over 20% in elections in 2013 and 2014, and today’s sluggish economy and devalued lari mean more people now miss the Saakashvili era.

If the 23% of respondents who refused to answer or said they support no one are really hidden UNM voters, it would take UNM support up to 37%, about the same as Georgian Dream.

There is a long way to go before the next parliamentary elections in 2016, but if the polls are to be believed, and if you know how to read them, it is shaping up tobea closer race than many would like to believe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Azerbaijan’s oil exports rise

APRIL 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s oil exports in Q1 2015 increased by 3.7% from a year earlier, a source at the state statistics committee told Reuters. The source said a rise in output at the BP-operated Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli (ACG) oilfields had driven the overall rise. BP has been under pressure to stem a drop in output at ACG.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Two metro stations opened in Kazakh city

APRIL 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev opened two new metro stations in Almaty, marking the westward extension of the service which opened in 2011. Almaty now has nine metro stations.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Georgia’s remittances fall

APRIL 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia received 24% less money from overseas in March 2015 compared to March 2014, the Central Bank said. The biggest source of overseas remittances is Russia. Sanctions over its involvement in Ukraine and a drop in oil prices have tipped the Russian economy into recession and triggered a knock-on effect.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Obama says no to Armenian genocide

APRIL 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – US President Barak Obama will not describe the killing of thousands of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 as a genocide, White House officials said. This will disappoint Armenia’s top officials.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

US cuts aid to Armenia

APRIL 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) -The United States has decided to cut its so-called assistance budget to Armenia which funds various social programmes run by USAID, the overseas development arm of the US government, and its embassy.

The US defended the cuts by saying that dealing with the rise of the Islamic extremist group IS, the Ebola epidemic in Africa and the civil war in Ukraine had placed extra pressure on its resources and that cuts had to be paid.

“These reductions in funding for certain of our assistance programs in Armenia were necessitated by budgetary demands and additional global priorities, and in no way reflect the quality of the programs that have been implemented, or the strength of the US-Armenia relationship,” the Voice of Armenia website quoted a US embassy statement as saying.

Sceptics, though, said the US decision may be linked to Armenia joining the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union in January, effectively turning its back on further integration with the West. Turkey and Azerbaijan have also had their US assistance aid budget cut, although these two countries are far wealthier than Armenia and are less likely to feel the squeeze.

The US did not say by how much it would cut Armenia’s assistance budget although it said that since 1992, the US had given more than $2b to Armenia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Medicine exports increase in Georgia

APRIL 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s pharmaceuticals industry is growing fast, data from the statistics agency Geostat showed.

In 2014, Georgian pharmaceuticals companies exports to other CIS countries increased by nearly 50%, Geostat said.

A pharmaceuticals director at a local company said it was because domestic rules changed last year and meant that people needed prescriptions to buy more drugs. This in turn pushed pharmaceutical makers to find new markets for their drugs.

“The increase in exports was caused by the increased number of medication for export and if earlier the company sold 20 varieties of medicines abroad, today the list includes more than 50,” Boris Jijolava, export manager at Georgian pharmaceuticals maker GMP told the Caucasian Business Week website.

Geostat said the value of drugs exported by Georgian companies to the former Soviet Union increased to around $92m in 2014 from $52m in 2013.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Kyrgyzstan strengthens border

APRIL 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan has built a 22,000km barb wire fence along its borders with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, media reported, highlighting the often strained border issues in Central Asia.

AKIpress, a Bishkek-based news agency, said that most of the barb was erected along the border with Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have a long-standing quarrel over borders and over the last few years there has been an increase in the number of incidents between the two neighbours along their shared border. These could be locals wandering into no-go areas, or a stand-off between soldiers. The tensest area is around the city of Osh in south Kyrgyzstan, which is part of the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan.

The borders of Central Asia are complex. Historians have said that Soviet officials deliberately drew the borders to divide people.

Analysts have also said that tension over borders is one of Central Asia’s most serious flashpoints.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Kazakhstan builds up an election

APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan prepared for a presidential election on April 26 that will extend the 26-year rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s only post-Soviet leader. He called an election to impose his authority during an economic downturn.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)

Tajik staff at Russian base strike

APRIL 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Dozens of local contractors working at the Russian military base in south Tajikistan have gone on strike over unpaid wages, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported (RFE/RL). RFE/RL quoted an official at the base blaming a local contracting company.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)