Category Archives: Uncategorised

Kazakhstan could buy Karachaganak stake

MAY 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan could buy a 29.25% stake in the Karachaganak oil and gas project in the north of the country when Shell completes its buyout of BG Group next year, BG Group said in its annual report.

Kazakhstan has been looking to increase its stake in various projects. Karachaganak was one of the last major operations that the Kazakh government took a stake in. It bought a 10% stake in Karachaganak for $3b in 2012.

Now, with Shell buying BG Group, Kazakhstan has the opportunity to buy a far larger chunk of Karachaganak.

“It is possible that the Republic of Kazakhstan may claim to have a right to acquire the Group’s interest in the Final Petroleum Sharing Agree- ment governing the operation of the Karachaganak gas and con- densate field in the event of a change of control of BG Group following a takeover bid,” BG Group said.

The Kazakh government hasn’t commented.

Karachaganak is one of BG Group’s most prized posses- sions, accounting for 9% of its revenues in 2014. Analysts have said that BG Group’s stake maybe worth around $4.4b.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Georgian president warns about Russian aggression

MAY 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an interview with the AP news agency, Georgian president Giorgi Margvelashvili said Russia would use its military to grab more territory in the former Soviet Union. Georgia has been warning about excessive Russian aggression since the two neighbours fought a brief war in 2008.

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(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Uzbek banks are running out of cash, says official

MAY 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbeks’ lack of confidence in the som has weakened Uzbekistan’s banks, reduced their capital and hit their ability to pay salaries and pensions.

This was the withering assessment of Ulugbek Mustafayev, a deputy chairman of Uzbekistan’s Central Bank, according to a report by the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

RFE/RL said it had seen a copy of a letter, dated April 10 and stamped “official use only” written by Mr Mustafayev to Uzbek PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

The letter gives a vital, and rare, insight into official Uzbek thinking on monetary policy. It’s virtually unheard of for a senior official to speak out against his or her bosses.

In the letter, Mr Mustafayev said a lack of confidence by the population in the som currency had pushed people into relying on the black market and US dollar payments over bank accounts. He said that this had created a shortfall in capital of more than 2 trillion som ($620m) and that state pensions and salaries to interior ministry officials, the defence ministry and other government workers were not being paid.

The regional financial crisis and the fall in the som/dollar exchange rate has reduced the population’s trust in the national currency and in financial institutions.

Most transactions in Uzbekistan are reportedly carried out in cash. Mr Mustafayev said that consumers had paid in far less than expected into Uzbek banks in the first quarter of the year.

The Uzbek system, already frail, is becoming weaker, Mr Mustafayev said in his letter.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

EBRD agreed loan with Armenia

MAY 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it had agreed a €3.5m, 15-year loan with Armenia to build the country’s first EU-compliant landfill site. The EU has also agreed a €3.5m grant for the project.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Turbulent economic times in Central Asia warn IMF and EBRD

MAY 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) both delivered withering assessments of the economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, piling pressure on governments across the region.

Not since the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 has the region been under such economic strain, the IMF said in its assessment.

“Exchange rate developments, such as the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the rouble, are compounding the problem,” media quoted Juha Kähkönen, deputy director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, as saying at the presentation of the report in Kazakhstan on May 19.

The region’s average growth rate this year, the IMF said, would slow to 3.3% from 5.3% in 2014.

A collapse in the price of oil and the value of the rouble have knocked economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Currencies have nosedived, losing around a third of their values in only a few months, governments have scrambled to cut budgets and companies have laid off hundreds of workers.

All the data, in short, paints a turbulent portrait of the last few months and an equally troublesome outlook for the next couple of years.

Mr Kähkönen’s statement came only a few days after the EBRD had issued a similar warning at its AGM in Tbilisi. It drew attention to the sharp fall in remittances to the region from Russia and the impact this would have.

“As the Russian economy has declined, remittances from Russia to Central Asia and to eastern Europe and the Caucasus have been declining at an alarming rate,” the bank said in a statement.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Azerbaijani President ditches plans to travel to EU summit

MAY 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Seemingly in a fit of pique, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev said he will not attend an EU summit in Riga later this month designed to bring countries that ring Europe closer to the group.

APA news agency, which is linked to the Azerbaijani authorities, quoted the deputy head of the presidential admitstration, Novruz Mammadov, as saying that Mr Aliyev blamed the EU and the US for mounting an anti-Azerbaijan campaign in the media.

“The expansion of the black PR campaign against Azerbaijan, in close collaboration with some western powers which claim to be interested to develop strategic partnership ties with Azerbaijan, on the eve of the first European Games has triggered a reasonable uproar,” APA reported.

The West has criticised Azerbaijan for what it has said are retarded steps on civil rights. Courts in Azerbaijan have imprisoned journalists lawyers, opposition leaders and activists who have been critical of the government.

For Azerbaijan, this is a particularly sensitive time. Next month it hosts the inaugural European Games and it desperately wants to both put on a good show and also to present itself in a good light.

By ditching plans to visit the EU summit in Riga, Mr Aliyev is aligning himself more closely with Russia and away from Europe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

EBRD downgrades Georgian economic growth rate

MAY 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – At its two-day annual general meeting in Tbilisi this year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development downgraded the host nation’s economic growth rate from 4.2% to 2.3% in 2015.

The EBRD’s latest report predicted overall stagnation in 2015 across all its 35 countries in the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. This is mainly due to a drop in oil prices and pressure on currencies generated by a strong US dollar.

Specifically, the EBRD said it had downgraded Georgia’s economic growth prospects because of the stronger than expected impact of the regional financial crisis centred on Russia. This expressed itself in lower remittances from abroad and a heavy drop in the value of national currencies.

Money transfers from abroad in April were down 25% on 2014 and the Georgian lari has also lost 34% of its value against the US dollar since November 2014.

These dreary economy forecasts pile extra pressure on the Georgian Dream coalition government although EBRD president Suma Chakrabarti did have some more comforting words for his hosts.

He said that Georgia was still performing better than average and has the strong potential for economic growth in the future.

“I don’t think it will be too long before Georgia will be able to take advantage of its productive potential going forward and the economic fundamentals here are sound,” he said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Azerbaijan oil exports drop

MAY 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Oil exports from Azerbaijan in the first four months of the year fell by nearly 1%, Reuters quoted a source at the state statistics agency as saying. The source did not specify a reason for the decline although it came as a surprise, especially after an earlier statement from BP that its oil output for Q1 had risen.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Georgia hopes visa-free travel in EU

MAY 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia has toned down its hopes of a deal to scrap visas for its citizens travelling to Europe, the FT reported quoting Georgian officials ahead of an EU summit meeting in Riga. Georgia has been pushing to speed up integration with Europe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)

Turkmenistan cracking down on media

MAY 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The New York-based Human Rights Watch accused the Turkmen government of using new rules which ban satellite dishes from apartment blocks because they are an eyesore as a pretext for cracking down on independent information sources.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 232, published on May 20 2015)