Category Archives: Uncategorised

Stock market: Nostrum Oil & Gas, Roxi Petroleum

JAN. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The winter break has not been too kind to stock prices of oil and gas companies focusing on the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The continued fall in oil prices, now at around $33/barrel, has not stopped yet, which keeps investors worried.

After a rough third week of December, when they lost between 4-6%, Nostrum Oil & Gas and Roxi Petroleum shares picked up again, only to fall back to mid-December levels.

Nostrum’s 15% spike on Dec. 23 was reabsorbed in the first week of January. Roxi shares grew 60% in two days from Dec. 28, but it is now trading back at 8.25p. Tethys Petroleum suf- fered most, as its shares lost 28% .

The two Georgian companies listed in London, Bank of Georgia and Georgia Healthcare Group were hit too. Bank of Georgia lost 8.2% in the past three weeks, closing at £17.87. Georgia Healthcare Group lost 4%, closing at £1.56.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Kyrgyzstan-Kumtor talks collapse

DEC. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz government officials quit 2- year-long talks with Toronto-listed Centerra Gold, the company that owns the Kumtor gold mine, over a new ownership structure deal. Talks had focused on Kyrgyzstan swapping its 32.7% stake in Centerra Gold for a 50% stake in the subsidiary that directly owns the Kumtor mine. Relations between the two sides have been strained.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Netflix expands from Armenia to Tajikistan

JAN. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The US online streaming service Netflix expanded its operations to 130 new countries, including those former Soviet states of South Caucasus and Central Asia. The expansion will give customers from Armenia to Tajikistan access to popular US TV shows through their internet connection.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

WBank cuts 2016 outlook for Kazakhstan

JAN. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The World Bank cut its economic outlook for Kazakhstan in 2016 to 1.1% because of sustained low oil prices. It had earlier predicted growth of 1.9% in 2016, up from 0.9% in 2015. Kazakhstan has been hard hit by the sudden and sustained fall in the price of oil.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Azerbaijani court jails journalist

DEC. 28 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in Azerbaijan sentenced journalist Rauf Mirkadirov to six years in prison for spying for Armenia. Mirkadirov denies the charges. His supporters said that the jail sentence is more evidence of Azerbaijan’s crackdown on dissent and free speech. Azerbaijan has jailed several journalists over the past few years.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Georgia hunts for new CBank chief

JAN. 6 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s President Giorgi Margvelashvili has started searching for a successor to Giorgi Kadagidze who will complete his 7-year term as head of the Central Bank in February. Mr Margvelashvili’s nominee will have to be voted in by the Parliament before he or she can assume office.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Currencies: US dollar, Kazakh tenge

JAN. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The New Year did not change the fortunes of currencies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. All currencies are still suffering against a strong US dollar and Central Banks are intervening to prop them up.

Undoubtedly, the most notable decision came just before the holidays when Azerbaijan ditched its currency peg to the dollar and let the manat slide. After a 48% fall, the currency found its equilibrium at 1.55/$1. It is now trading at 1.57/$1.

In Kazakhstan, the tenge recovered towards the end of December, but it slid to 345/$1 in January.

Tajikistan witnessed the worst start of the year, with its somoni currency falling 2.5% in the first week of January, trading at 7.17/$1. Notably, exchange points have been charging a premium of 8-10% on currency transactions in the past few weeks.

In Kyrgyzstan the Central Bank has kept the som stable at 75.9/$1 by intervening several times.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Kazakh President’s ally retires

DEC. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s ally Nurtai Abykayev retired as chairman of the National Security Committee, one of the most influential posts in the country. Mr Abykayev, 68, had been chairman of the National Security Committee since 2010, the second time he had held the position. Vladimir Zhumakhanov, previously his deputy, takes over as head.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Georgia’s PM resigns unexpectedly

DEC. 22 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Irakli Garibashvili unexpectedly quit as Georgia’s PM, a move that effectively signalled the first shot in what is likely to be a protracted and bitter campaign ahead of parliamentary elections in October.

Known for his combative nature, Mr Garibashvili said he had decided to quit after two years in office because he had achieved his aims.

“We have returned freedom and dignity to our citizens,” he said. “Official posts are temporary, God and homeland are eternal. Therefore today I took a decision to leave the post of Prime Minister.”

Analysts said Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest man and the power behind the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, had decided to sacrifice his protege because of a slump in the polls.

“It was not a statement of a person who wanted to leave,” said Kornely Kakachia, director of the Tbilisi based think tank Georgian Institute of Politics, of Mr Garibashvili’s resignation speech.

“He probably didn’t even know that he was going to be replaced until the day he resigned.”

A recession in Russia and currencies depreciation across the region have impacted Georgia’s economy, hitting the popularity of the Georgian Dream which defeated the party of former president Mikheil Saakashvili, the United National Movement party (UNM), in elections four years ago.

The Georgian Dream coalition and the UNM are bitter rivals and the parliamentary election is likely to be particularly hard fought and vitriolic.

Giorgi Kvirikashvili, a former economy and foreign minister, was appointed PM. He too is close to Mr Ivanishvili , having previously worked at his bank, Cartu Bank.

Mr Kvirikashvili, 48, said his priority was to boost the economy, a message that appears to have gone down well on the streets of Tbilisi.

Georgian Dream supporter Giorgi Abaladze said the appointment of Mr Kvirikashvili was positive.

“Personally I really like Kvirikashvili. The previous PM was a little bit harsh in his position, he seemed more radical,” he said. “And Kvirikashvili is an economist, and that is what we need in these harsh economic times.”

Editorial: Currency controls in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

JAN. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan ditched their currencies’ peg to the US dollar in 2015, triggering sudden and sustained depreciation of their currencies.

These were tough, but necessary calls by their Central Banks as these currencies were over-valued compared to oil and the Russian rouble.

What happens next differentiates Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan has allowed, with the odd intervention, its currency to devalue. The Azerbaijani Central Bank, by contrast and very much in keeping with the tight way that the country is run, appears determined to anchor the manat more-or-less at its current rate against the US dollar. The rhetoric may be of liberalisation but the actions are of a conservative and uptight Central Bank.

And this comes across in other ways too. A couple of weeks after the devaluation, Azerbaijan imposed a rule that only people presenting their official ID could change more than $500 into foreign currencies. This could be the first of many exchange controls.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)