APRIL 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – For Europe, the fierce fighting this week between Azerbaijani forces and Armenian-backed forces was a reminder that their plan to bring the South Caucasus firmly into its economic sphere is a risky one.
Eight years ago Russia and Georgia fought over the rebel region of South Ossetia. Now Azerbaijan and Armenia are close to all-out war over another sliver of land.
Wedged between these two scruffy, mountainous regions is the trade corridor that Europe relies on to transport goods to and from the Caspian Sea and Asia.
Theodoras Tsakiris, assistant professor for energy, geopolitics, and economics at the University of Nicosia in Cyprus told RFE/RL that two major pipelines pumping oil gas to Europe which lie just north of the conflict zone could be effected.
“A potential conflagration over Nagorno Karabakh is quite likely to affect both of these pipelines,” he said. “They are of critical significance primarily for Azerbaijan, then Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Europe and the global economy.”
European officials have avoided mentioning trade and gas exports from the South Caucasus in their comments on the fighting and have instead focused on calling for a full ceasefire but bureaucrats across Europe’s capitals will be troubled by the conflict.
Central to their plan is to build a network of pipelines stretching from the Caspian Sea across Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey into Europe. Gas from this route, dubbed the Southern Gas Corridor, would start to compete with Russian supplies.
Sections of the pipeline, after all, run only 40km north of the frontlines in Nagorno-Karabakh.
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(News report from Issue No. 275, published on April 8 2016)
