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Azerbaijan’s oil output falls in Jan.-Aug. by 2.8%

SEPT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s oil production has fallen by 2.8% in the first eight months of the year, a source at the statistics committee told Reuters.

The data is more economic bad news for Azerbaijan. Oil underpins the economy and a drop in production means a drop in revenue. A regional economic decline has already hit Azerbaijan hard, forcing it to cut government budgets and to devalue its manat currency this year.

The source told Reuters that a decline in output from BP’s Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli (ACG) oilfields in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea had pulled its overall output down.

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev stepped in and ordered BP to stop the output decline at ACG. BP has had sporadic success at stopping the drop in output at ACG, although it has now restarted its slow, steady decline.

Daily oil output at the ACG fell to an average 641,000 barrels/day (bpd) in the first half of 2015 from 656,000 bpd in the same period in 2014 and 661,000 bpd in the first quarter of this year, BP said. ACG makes up most of Azerbaijan’s oil production.

Output at ACG slowed during Q2 when BP closed the West Azeri platform for maintenance. It has now closed the Chirag platform for maintenance. A BP spokesperson said operations at the Chirag oil platform would be suspended from sometime in the autumn. It was not clear when Chirag would re-start operations.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

HRW warns on rights in Tajikistan

SEPT. 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Tajik government has presided over an “steady, unmistakable decline of freedom of expression”, Human Rights Watch said in a statement referring to the clampdown on the opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT).

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

TeliaSonera wants to quit Central Asia and the South Caucasus

ALMATY, SEPT. 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Dogged by various corruption allegations against its businesses in Central Asia, Swedish-based TeliaSonera said it wanted to quit the Eurasian telecoms market to focus on European operations.

In the medium-term, TeliaSonera’s assets in the growing mobile telecoms markets of Central Asia and South Caucasus region could represent an attractive business for companies looking to enter the market. TeliaSonera owns stakes in telecoms companies in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These are Azercell, Geo-cell, KcellP, Tcell and Ucell.

In most of these countries, TeliaSonera has been under the spotlight for its opaque corporate governance, an issue that its CEO, Johan Dennelind, referenced.

“Thanks to two years of hard work to improve the Eurasian operations, not least from a corporate governance and sustainability perspective, we now have better and more well-managed companies which we believe others can successfully develop further,” a TeliaSonera press release quoted him as saying.

TeliaSonera appointed Mr Dennelind as CEO in 2013 after a corruption probe into its operations in Uzbekistan forced the previous CEO and most of the directors to resign.

In the past two years, Swedish prosecutors have opened investigations into alleged bribes that the company paid to secure access to mobile networks and licences in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. More recently, in May 2015, a Swedish newspaper reported on another possible case of bribery in Azerbaijan.

In 2013, TeliaSonera sacked Tero Kivisaari, a senior executive, for paying $350m a few years earlier to a Gibraltar company linked to Gulnara Karimova, daughter of Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov, in exchange for a 3G licence. TeliaSonera owns 94% of Ucell, an Uzbekistan-based, mobile operator.

A 2013 deal that saw Kcell, in which TeliaSonera owns a 62% stake, pay Kazakh PM Karim Massimov $200m for network access has also come under scrutiny.

Analysts said that the pressure had been building on TeliaSonera and that they had been expecting TeliaSonera to cut its losses in its Eurasia division for some time.

Bakytzhan Khochshanov, an analyst at Halyk Finance, said that he thought a Russian or Turkish telecoms company might be interested in buying TeliaSonera’s stakes.

“Potential buyers are likely to be the largest ones, and among them either Megafon or MTS, as Vimpelcom already has an exposure to Kazakhstan’s market with its Beeline brand,” he said.

“Among the other potential bidders could also be Turkish operators, with Turkcell already having a stake in Kcell through Fintur Holding.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Comment: Internal issues, not external, are trigger for violence in Tajikistan

SEPT. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In Central Eurasia and the Caspian region, IS may not be a direct threat today but it could be in the future because many of the factors that create homegrown terrorism are already present. These are mainly the presence of foreign fighters from the Middle East and the influence of recruiters, particularly spread on Internet.

But importantly, and this is often overlooked, the penetration of politicised and radical [neo-] Salafism into pluralistic local Sunni- Hanafi doctrine and practice should be taken into account.

We should analyse thoroughly the factors that brought about IS into the Middle East to draw lessons on how to prevent the outbreak of similar cases in our region. Terrorism waged for the sake of seemingly religious aims cannot develop without a particular political conjuncture, social and psychological grounding.

Many analyses of terrorism have overlooked the psychological factor — the existence of hurt psychology and phenomenon of self- estrangement — in would-be radical militants. The mental prison of takfiri ideology produced by radical neo-Salafism incorporates the foundations of the above mentioned psychological factor. This factor is often coupled with the brutalisation of human nature.

Takfirism is a brand of radical neo-Salafism whose adherents accuse all other Muslims of unbelief and apostasy. Neo-Salafism is itself politicised, centralist, fond of a uniformity set of teaching which inculcates the siege mentality.

Consequently, we should be aware of the ongoing process of the penetration of neo-Salafist teachings in post-Soviet Sunni Muslim communities. The neutralisation of neo-Salafism in Central Eurasia would have been much more productive if it had not been the influence of some foreign actors. We cannot help but suspect the financial leverage of some states where political regimes are, at least, sympathetic to neo-Salafism.

Second, we should heed the phenomenon of the existence of how traumatised psychology shaped either by post-Soviet criminal under-culture or oppressive politics of highly authoritarian regimes.

We shouldn’t also forget that IS flourishes in the Middle East where the large communities of Sunni Muslims have become subject to brutalisation by oppressive and sectarian regimes.

By Galym Zhussipbek, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Suleyman Demirel University in Almaty

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Nostrum pressures Tethys

SEPT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — London-listed Nostrum Oil & Gas said in a statement that a proposed $37.5m takeover offer of Tethys Petroleum, a Central Asia-focused oil company, has not yet been accepted. Nostrum said some of Tethys’ Board expectations were unrealistic as “the underlying financial position of Tethys has continued to deteriorate.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Cheese exports double in Armenia

SEPT. 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia has doubled cheese imports from Armenia this year, media quoted the head of Russia’s statistics agency, Konstantin Laikam, as saying. Shops in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia have had to diversify their supplier base for cheese and other products to beat EU sanctions.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Turkmenistan joins global atomic energy agency

SEPT. 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan has become the 166th member of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global body charged with developing and encouraging the safe use of nuclear power, media reported.

While Turkmenistan’s accession to the IAEA may not have any major policy implications it is another signifier that Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov wants to bring the country more into the international mainstream.

Turkmenistan normally stays away from joining international organisations.

IAEA members ratified Turkmenistan’s membership at their 59th annual summit in Vienna. also joining this year were the east African country of Djibouti, Guyana in South America and Vanuatu in the Pacific Ocean.

Neutrality is enshrined in Turkmenistan’s constitution and not damaging this long-held policy would have been a key consideration for Mr Berdymukhamedov.

He has steadily moved Turkmenistan into the international mainstream, mainly to exploit Turkmenistan’s gas reserves.

It holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Xodus wins Kazakh contracts

SEPT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Tengizchevroil consortium developing oil fields in west Kazakhstan awarded a “significant” contract to Scotland-based engineering company Xodus. Xodus tests the strength of rigs and other upstream oil structures using sound waves.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Kyrgyz som slips to new low

SEPT. 16 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s som dropped to its lowest level against the US dollar since independence, forcing the Central Bank to step in to brake its fall.

At exchange kiosks in Bishkek, the som traded at 72/$1 before recovering to around 69/$1 after the Central Bank’s intervention. Still, the fall in the som, now down 13% in the past month, has pushed up inflation and worried people.

“Food is getting more expensive, it definitely reflects on the family budget,” a 52-year-old man who declined to be named said as he left a supermarket in central Bishkek.

When the Kyrgyz government pushed the country into the Russia- led Eurasian Economic Union last month it said food prices would fall.

Emil Umetaliev, a Bishkek-based analyst, said this promise has been shown to be empty. “How can they be cheaper if in Russia they are getting more expensive because of an internal crisis?” he said.

To stop the slide, the Central Bank bought $18m worth of som but a source at the Bank told the Bulletin officials were anxious.

“The Bank made intervention but it did not particularly affect such a fast growth of dollar,” she said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)

Nazarbayev calls Kazakhstan land of Great Steppe

SEPT. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev used the 550th anniversary celebrations of the Kazakh khanate to espouse on one of his favourite topics — nation building. At the celebrations, he called on the country to be known as the Land of the Great Steppe.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 248, published on Sept. 18 2015)