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We will not block Armenia-EU deal, says Russia

OCT. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia said it would not block Armenia signing an agreement with the European Union that will deepen bilateral relations.

This is important because the deal has been drawn up to replace the Association Agreement that Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan ducked out of signing at the last moment two years ago.

Back then the West accused Russia of interfering by giving Armenia sweeteners to ditch the EU for the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union, which is joined this year. The Kremlin pulled a similar trick with Ukraine, although this led to a public outpouring of anger, street demonstrations and, eventually, a revolution.

Russian news agencies quoted Vasily Nebenzya, a Russian deputy foreign minister, saying that the Kremlin would not try to stop the deal this time.

“I think that [the planned EU-Armenia accord] does not contradict partnership with the Russian Federation,” he said.

The deal that Armenia and the EU hope to sign this year is not as deep as the Association Agreement of 2013 was intended to be but it is an important step for EU-Armenia relations.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Ivanishvili says he regrets promoting Georgian President

OCT. 27 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Ratcheting up tension between Georgia’s PM and President, former PM and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili said in a TV interview that he made a mistake selecting Giorgi Margvelashvili as his presidential candidate in an election in 2013.

Mr Ivanishvili’s comments came shortly after President Margvelashvili met with several senior public figures, including an opposition leader and the powerful head of the Georgian Orthodox Church to discuss Georgia’s worsening political climate and a clampdown on opposition broadcaster Rustavi 2.

“The President’s remarks are completely irresponsible,” Mr Ivanishvili said of Mr Margvelashvili. “People who make such statements, want to justify the United National Movement’s actions. Those who make such statements, support UNM.”

The UNM is the party of former president Mikheil Saakashvili.

Although not officially in office any more, Mr Ivanishvili bankrolls the Georgian Dream ruling coalition and is considered the kingpin of Georgian politics. PM Irakli Garibashvili is very much his protege while President Margvelashvili is considered an increasing irritation.

Ghia Nodia, a political professor at Ilia State University and an opponent of Georgian Dream, said Mr Ivanishvili’s remarks were dangerous.

“This obsession with UNM and the inability to think in a nuanced manner are toxic and show a hidden complex. It is sad that he is unable to realise this,” he said.

Mr Margvelashvili, a former education minister, was regarded as having little political ambition before being put forward as a presidential candidate by Mr Ivanishvili in 2013. Most observers said he was supposed to act as a puppet. Instead he has become a thorn in side of Mr Ivanishvili.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Business comment: IMF’s reforming zeal

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The South Caucasus and Central Asia might be looking at a long term economic crisis, the IMF said, sending a chill down the spines of the region’s investors.

After the shock of the 2008/9 financial crisis, countries across the region picked up pace and restored the steady growth pattern they had witnessed in the early 2000s.

But the current crisis, which Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev called worse than the 2008/9 financial crunch, could linger on for longer than expected because of its ripple effects on the Russian economy, the IMF said.

Lower oil prices have affected hydrocarbon exporters from the region – big and small, private and state. Several exploration and production projects have become unprofitable and revenues have lost value. The IMF forecast a break- even price of around $60/barrel or higher for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. If oil prices are lower, debt will grow and reserves will shrink.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, had been forecasted to be better off due to lower oil prices, but the fall in the rouble has reduced the value of their remittances and pressured currencies.

And the IMF had a message. Reform is the only option, it said.

“The long-lasting nature of the shocks means that deeper and more durable policy changes will be needed,” Juha Kähkönen, deputy director of the IMF in Almaty said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kazakhstan can impose Karachaganak fine

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh government could impose a $2b penalty on the consortium operating the Karachaganak gas field, Bloomberg News quoted sources as saying.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Nostrum cuts expectations in Kazakhstan

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Hit by delays in infrastructure maintenance, London-listed Nostrum Oil & Gas reduced its production target for 2015 by 9% to 41,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In its Q3 statement, Nostrum said repair work at a Kazakh state-owned gas export pipeline was now complete and production was back to normal.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Microsoft launches programme in Armenia

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — US’ Microsoft launched a new so- called acceleration programme for start-up companies at its Innovation Centre in Armenia. People working on 14 new projects selected for the programme will receive in- depth training in California, Australia and Russia. Armenia has been looking to attract increased investment from tech start-ups over the past few years and has brokered various deals with Microsoft.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Azerbaijan could join EEU, says minister

OCT. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan said for the first time that it could join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union. At a press conference in Baku, deputy economy minister Sevinj Hasanova said: “We are analysing how our participation in the World Trade Organisation is useful. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s joining the EEU or other organisations should be analysed.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

SPA nominates Azerbaijan’s first lady for a rights prize

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Swedish Peace Agency, an obscure human rights group based in Gothenburg, has nominated Mehriban Aliyeva, wife of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, for a human rights prize for promoting women’s rights. Human rights groups have criticised Azerbaijan this year for clamping down on human rights.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Georgia’s court relaxes marijuana laws

OCT. 25 2015, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia moved a step closer to decriminalising the recreational use of marijuana after its Constitutional Court ruled that possessing 70g of the drug should not lead to a prison sentence.

The ruling means that Georgia now has some of the most lax laws on marijuana possession in the former Soviet Union.

The Constitutional Court was called to rule on the case of Beka Tsikarishvili who was arrested in 2013 and faced a prison sentence for carrying 69g of marijuana. His supporters have stage rallies which have attracted hundreds of people.

“The purchase and possession of marijuana for personal use does not qualify for a prison sentence,” the court said in a note on its website.

Previously, carrying 50-500g of marijuana could lead to a prison sentence of up to 14 years.

Supporters of decriminalising marijuana cheered the court’s decision, calling it a “huge step forward”.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kazakhstan’s Samruk-Kazyna gets Kashagan loan

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, signed a five-year loan agreement for up to $1.5b to help fund its purchase of a 8.4% stake in the Kashagan oil field. Kazmunaigas, Kazakhstan’s state-owned energy company, agreed earlier this year to sell half its 16.81% stake in Kashagan to Samruk–Kazyna. The manoeuvre is considered a mechanism to help Kazmunaigas raise funds during this period of depressed oil prices.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)