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Business comment: The outlook for oil

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are having to brace themselves for a tough 2016. Oil prices are expected to stay low and output is likely to drop too.

Oil exports from Azerbaijan were down by 0.4% in Jan.-Oct. 2015 compared to last year, due to a decline in oil production, according to a source quoted by Reuters, a continuation of steady trend at its major oil field ACG.

BP is under pressure to stem the drop, and has said that it is on target to achieve this. Now an estimate from the US-based Energy

Information Administration appears to back this up. It said Azerbaijan is likely to maintain this year’s average of 870,000 barrels/day, or even more, in the first half of 2016.

But OPEC, a club of oil exporting countries that does not include Azerbaijan, disagrees.

It predicted oil output of 820,000 barrels/day for 2016, a 6% drop compared to 2015.

“Lower prices are likely to accelerate declines in Azerbaijan’s production in 2016 compared to 2015,” OPEC said in a report.

And Kazakhstan is also sending worrying signals.

Yerbolat Dossayev, minister of economy, said the government cut Kazakhstan’s oil output projection for 2015 by 1.5m tonnes to 79m tonnes, a 2.3% fall. OPEC agreed.

“With no new project startups lined up for next year, declining rates are likely to step up in 2016,” it said in its monthly report.

Analysts expect Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which cannot influence oil prices, to produce and export at maximum capacity, while cutting down on investment. Earning hard currency from exports is top of the agenda for Central Asia and South Caucasus countries.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Stock market: KAZ Minerals, Centerra Gold

NOV. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — On the stock markets, KAZ Minerals, formerly called Kazakhmys, was one of the biggest movers.

Its share price rose from 80p to 92p — a two-week high, apparently off the back of news that it will restructure some of its costs.

On the Canada stock market, shares in Centerra Gold recovered from a six-month low of 6.95 Canadian dollars after its core asset, the Kumtor gold mine in Kyrgyzstan announced better-than-expected results.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Kazakhstan cuts back envoys

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In what would amount to a major change of Kazakh government policy, President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that he was considering cutting the number of diplomatic missions to save cash to soften the blow of the current economic downturn. Previously, Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry has been opening outposts in South America, Africa and south-east Asia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Turkmenistan begins expanding giant gas field

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan will expand its giant Galkynysh gas field by around 50% over the next few years, media reported quoting Ashirguly Begliyev, head of Turkmengas, giving gas projects to India and the EU a major boost.

Galkynysh forms the core of Turkmenistan’s gas production. Its main client is China although it wants to diversify its client base. The EU has been negotiating with Turkmenistan to try and organise for gas supplies to be sent west across the Caspian Sea, through the South Caucasus, Turkey and onto Europe.

India, likewise, has been working on a project that could see gas pumped from Turkmenistan across Afghanistan to Pakistan and finally to Indian consumers.

First, though, Turkmenistan needs to boost output at Galkynysh. Almost all of its current 60bcm of gas goes to China. A proportion of the next phase of Galkynysh’s development will also travel to China, but spare capacity is being built in.

“We are in talks with a consortium of Japanese companies and have also received proposals from Korean firms and from Petrofac company,” Reuters quoted Mr Begliyev as saying on which companies may be involved with the third phase development of Galkynysh.

Importantly, too, Galkynysh is vital for Turkmenistan’s own self image. It sees itself as an increasingly important regional energy player and has been looking to pull in more clients.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Kazakh court jails blogger for separatist web chat

NOV. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A court in the town of Ridder, north- east Kazakhstan, imprisoned an internet blogger for five years for asking users on a popular social media website if they thought the east of the country should split and join Russia.

This is the first time that a new law banning separatist incitement has been used. The law was introduced in 2014 after the civil war in Ukraine broke out.

According to media reports, 26- year-old Igor Sychev, the blogger, has denied allegations that he was fomenting separatist feelings.

But this is an issue that the Kazakh authorities, up to President Nursultan Nazarbayev, are touchy about.

The north and east of Kazakhstan are populated mainly by ethnic Russians.

This population skew was one of the main reasons Mr Nazarbayev relocated his capital to Astana, in the centre of the country, from Almaty in the south in 1997 and he has spent much time re-working the history of the Kazakh state to be as inclusive as possible — without stretching the realms of possibility too much.

Nationalists in Russia have also increased tension by floating the idea of bringing north Kazakhstan into a Greater Russia.

On a trip to Pavlodar in the north of the country last year, though, it was clear to a Bulletin correspondent that for most ethnic Russians living in Kazakhstan, although their cultural centre of gravity may lie to the north in Russia, they still have faith in the Kazakh state.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Tajikistan discusses foreign bank accounts

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Possibly aimed at either cracking down on corruption or giving the under-pressure somoni currency a boost, Tajikistan’s parliament discussed a bill that would ban Tajik official from holding bank accounts or property overseas. Corruption is a major issue in Tajikistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Journo trial begins in Azerbaijan

NOV. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Rauf Mirkadyrov, a high-profile journalist in Azerbaijan has gone on trial for high treason. He was extradited in April 2014 to Azerbaijan from Turkey. The West has been highly critical of Azerbaijan’s crackdown on media.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

The Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company expands

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company said it had opened a subsidiary company, called Caspian Marine Service, in Russia’s Astrakhan to take advantage of the area’s economic free zone. Trade around the Caspian Sea has generally increased over the past few years. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have all increased their ports’ capacities.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Uzbek wine industry attracts foreign investors

NOV. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzvinprom, an Uzbek state holding company, said that two investors from Germany and Bulgaria were interested in buying stakes in Uzbek wine producers. The two investors, which Uzbek media named as Bever and Vinogradez Vine House, have signed a memorandum of understanding. There were no more details on the deal.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Earthquake hits south Kyrgyzstan

NOV. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – An earthquake measuring 5.9 on the Richter Scale struck southern Kyrgyzstan, around 20km south-east of Osh, monitoring websites reported. There were no reports of casualties and it is not clear, yet, how deep the earthquake was.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)