DEC. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Somon Air, a private airline company in Tajikistan, signed a contract with British Commsoft to use its OASES IT system for engineering and maintenance. Somon Air operates flights connecting Tajikistan with Russia, Kazakhstan, Germany, Turkey, China and the UAE.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alexei Miller, the chairman of Russia’s Gazprom, said he is in talks with Iran and Armenia over a gas swap deal. The deal would see Iran receive Russian oil in the north via Azerbaijan. In return Iran would supply Armenia with gas. Armenia currently receives Russian gas via Georgia.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kenes Rakishev, a well-connected businessman in Kazakhstan, said he is in talks to buy Sedmoi Kanal (Channel 7), a popular television channel focusing on education and entertainment. In July 2015, Channel 7 stopped broadcasting information and analytical programmes due to low market demand.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — As the diplomatic row between Russia and Turkey intensifies, some analysts believe it could spill over into a gas war similar to the Russia- Ukraine crises of the past decade.
When Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu visited Baku last week, his statement on the acceleration of construction works for the TANAP pipeline rebounded all over the press.
Mr Davutoglu said he had reached an agreement with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev to inaugurate the new gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey ahead of schedule. That is, before 2018.
Some, including myself, read this as a poke in the eye to Russia, which had imposed a food and travel embargo and suspended work on another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that would have connected Russia and Turkey via the Black Sea.
Turkey wanted to show Russia that it had options and where better to go to prove this than its erstwhile ally Azerbaijan – also a former Soviet state?
But there is also another important point that should not be overlooked. What gas would a TANAP pipeline completed early actually carry?
Supply for TANAP will come from the expanded Shah Deniz gas field (Shah Deniz-2) off the coast of Baku in the Caspian Sea.
But Shah Deniz-2 will only come online with its first gas in 2018. It simply can’t be brought forward.
So the question remains as to what gas Azerbaijan will use to fill the 16bn cubic metres it promised to its western customers if TANAP is built early.
In short, the acceleration of construction works at TANAP is meaningless before the gas is also ready to be shipped.
It is political hot air.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek president Islam Karimov criticised Uzbekistan’s police force as shoddy, Eurasianet.org reported. Human rights groups have long criticised police in Uzbekistan for using torture on inmates but Mr Karimov has never previously criticised them. Mr Karimov said there had been complaints about the police.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iran could send most of its enriched uranium supply to Kazakhstan under a US-negotiated deal that would allow sanctions to be lifted, the Wall Street Journal reported quoting sources. Iran has to transfer its enriched uranium to a third country to comply with conditions to remove sanctions.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In tenge terms, prices for new housing in Kazakhstan have risen on average by 12% in the year to the end of November, media reported quoting the national statistics agency. The rise is a reflection of the devaluation of the tenge and also of rising inflation. The tenge has lost around 40% in value this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Oil prices fell by almost 10% to under $40/barrel this week — its lowest price since 2009. This hit several of the region’s energy companies who were already dealing with a sharp slump in their share prices.
Tethys Petroleum closed at 4.38p on Thursday, down 2.7% in one week. Roxi Petroleum continued to decline, closing at 6.38p on Thursday, down 8.9% on the week. Nostrum Oil & Gas shares lost 3% to close at 369.5p.
Commodity companies were hit by the general downturn in the market and the news of giant miner Anglo American scaling down operations dramatically. Gold prices fell again by 2% this week, hitting $1,067/ounce.
This affected Kazakhstan-focused mining companies such as Central Asia Metals and KAZ Minerals, which lost 8.9% and 3.8% respectively this week. Kyrgyzstan-focused miner Centerra Gold surged 4%in the Toronto Stock Exchange to 7.94 Canadian dollars, against the trend of other companies, perhaps rallying on its positive results in the first three-quarters of the year.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Manila-based Asian Development Bank approved a grant of $53.4m and an additional loan of $6.6m to Tajikistan to help it develop private businesses. The ADB said the grant was designed to bring in programmes that would reduce business costs as well as increase protection for small companies.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)
DEC. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgian Water and Power (GWP) said it has started construction of a new hydropower plant near Tbilisi, part of a broader investment package designed to boost Georgia’s electricity generating capacity.
The Saguramo hydropower plant will cost 10.5m lari ($4.38m) to build and be operational by the end of 2016.
Importantly, it will feed its electricity straight into the Tbilisi power system.
And the timing of the start of construction at the Saguramo 4.4 megawatt plant was pertinent.
Only a couple of days earlier, Georgian energy minister Kakha Kaladze told media that he wanted to see a united energy market in the South Caucasus.
Georgia is deficient in energy and is currently negotiating with Russia to import more gas.
It has unveiled a large hydropower investment plan which at its centre has the much-delayed Nenskra dam in the northwest of Georgia. Nenskra will have a power generating capacity of 280 megawatts and cost $1b to build.
But Mr Kaladze appeared to suggest that he wanted to hedge his bets and develop a pan-South Caucasus energy market that also included Turkey and Russia.
“Taking into account existing and future projects, it is possible to connect the energy system of the South Caucasus and Georgia will be an energy bridge, ensuring the growth of exchange and trading of electricity,” he said.
So far, though, there has been a less than ecstatic response from the rest of the region, unsurprisingly given the fraught nature of most of the neighbours’ relations.
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(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)