DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in Bern to discuss peace plans for the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, their first meeting since 2014. There was no sign of any tangible progress from the Bern talks.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Police have detained the family of Muhiddin Kabiri, the fugitive leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), media reported. The IRPT had been Tajikistan’s main opposition group until it was outlawed. Most of its leaders have been arrested. Mr Kabiri, though, is on the run.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tengizchevroil (TCO), the Chevron- led consortium operating the Tengiz oilfield in western Kazakhstan, said it increased output in the first nine months of 2015 and that it intends to push ahead with its expansion project in the first half of next year. In January-September 2015, Tengizchevroil produced 20.3m tonnes of crude oil, up 2.5% compared to the same period last year when it produced 19.8m tonnes. The so-called Future Growth Project expansion project will cost around $38b to complete and will increase output by 44%. Earlier this year, TCO delayed its expansion plans because of the low price of oil.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Dozens of people queued up outside the MEGA shopping mall in Almaty to buy a coffee from Kazakhstan’s first Starbucks cafe. MEGA had previously said two Starbucks shops would open in 2016.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh ambassador to Singapore, Yerlan Baudarbek-Kozhatayev, put out a statement denying reports in Malaysia’s media that the Islamic extremist group IS had established a training map for children in Kazakhstan. Malaysian media had been quoting Malaysia’s counter- terrorism chief.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – South Korea opened its first embassy in Georgia, highlighting Georgia’s increased prominence on the world stage and also, perhaps, South Korea’s rising interest in the South Caucasus. S.Korea also gave Georgia’s foreign ministry computer equipment worth $100,000.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 16/18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In the weeks leading up to an interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday, Central Banks in the South Caucasus and Central Asia fretted about possible repercussion on their own currencies.
Janet Yellen, who chairs the Fed, said interest rates would go up by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed had postponed the decision for months and a rate increase was widely expected.
What will happen now to Emerging Markets? The US dollar will inevitably become more attractive to investors, which are likely to pull capital away from Emerging Markets back to the US.
The day after the rate increase, the value of the dollar grew by 1% against six major currencies. This, in turn, could further depress the price of commodities and pressure currencies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Shortly after the Fed’s decision, the Georgian Central Bank also raised its interest rates to 8%, up from a level of 7.5%. And the following morning the Central Bank of Azerbaijan issued a statement saying it expects the new rate to affect the currency markets in the region.
Kazakhstan had been on holiday while all this was happening, celebrating the 24th anniversary of its independence, but the impact on the Central Bank and the tenge have been tangible for weeks. The Central Bank twice skipped its monthly policy meetings in November and December, leaving analysts puzzled. On Friday, when Kazakhstan woke up from its festivities, the tenge hit an all-time low of 342.5/$1.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Iran ministry of energy said it may expand its activities in several international oil and gas fields, including Shah Deniz, Azerbaijan’s biggest gas project.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The trial has started of Valery Permyakov, a Russian conscript accused of killing seven members of the same family in January. The murders shocked Armenia and strained relations with Russia. Russia keeps a major military base in Armenia.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)
DEC. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut funding for a railway project that would have linked Tajikistan and Turkmenistan via Afghanistan because of a deterio- ration in security.
The decision will be a blow to various infrastructure projects in Central Asia that involve Afghanistan, including the high profile TAPI gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India and the CASA-1000 power transmission route running from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Pakistan.
“Although Turkmenistan has completed construction of its section of the railway, we would not like to construct a railway where security is not guaranteed. It’s very risky,” ADB’s country director C.C.Yu told media.
This year, the Taliban has increased its attacks in northern Afghanistan, at one point capturing the town of Kunduz near Tajikistan. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have all warned that security is worsening although, previously, infrastructure projects have not been postponed or delayed.
The railway route in question was supposed to run over 440km and bypass Uzbekistan, often considered a troublesome neighbour by Tajikistan in particular and Turkmenistan to a lesser extent.
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(News report from Issue No. 261, published on Dec. 20 2015)