JAN. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s foreign and gold reserves fell to $27.2b at the end of December, their lowest level since August 2014, data from the Central Bank showed. Like other countries across the region, Kazakhstan has been propping up its tenge currency by selling its reserves. The tenge has halved in value over the past year.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 12 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Guernsey-based oil and gas company Tethys Petroleum continues to travel along the bumpy roads of Central Asia. After a lengthy tug-of-war with Nostrum Petroleum over a takeover offer, it finally agreed with a $35m deal with Olisol, an oil investment group in Kazakhstan.
The funds, however, have not yet reached Tethys and at the end of December, the company said it “does not have sufficient funding to meet its requirements beyond next few months.”
In its operation at Tajikistan’s Bokhtar field, Tethys has lost the confidence of Total and CNPC, its partners in the project, after failing to pay its share for two consecutive cash calls.
What Tethys now doesn’t need is a fight with the Tajik government over the Bokhtar licence. The Tajik side says it’s been seven years since the beginning of the exploration and it is now entitled by law to strip 25% of the licensed area from the consortium.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s defence minister Tina Khidasheli flew to Afghanistan to meet some of the 870 Georgian soldiers based in the country as part of the US-led Operation Resolute. Georgia has the second largest number of soldiers in Afghanistan. It views the soldiers as part of a wider diplomatic push to try to join NATO.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — GT Group, a Georgian automotive holding company, launched a new company, GT Enology, to import wine-making equipment, local media reported. The company will buy machinery in France and Italy to service several wine-making companies in Georgia. GT Group is a major importer of lubricants and specialised vehicles in the country and is ranked as one of the largest taxpayers.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
DUSHANBE, JAN. 10 2016, (The Conway Bulletin) — Austrian company ILF Consulting Engineers signed a contract with Tajik state-owned utilities company Barqi Tojik to provide consulting services to modernise the Kayrakkum hydropower project, a key part of Tajikistan’s plans to become a regional exporter of electricity.
The Soviet-era facilities at the Kayrakkum plant have now reached the end of their lifecycle and the total cost of the modernisation of the plant is estimated at $169m. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will finance around $50m.
Barqi Tojik also intends to increase capacity of the hydropower plant, from 126MW to 174MW, giving an annual total output of 900 GWh.
Tajikistan, which produces around 98% of its electricity from hydropower sources, is trying to improve its power capacity.
It is part of the CASA-1000 project, an ambitious export project to send electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The project is due for completion in 2019 and to fulfil its role of supplier, Tajikistan needs to speed up its modernisation projects. Kyrgyzstan is also involved in the CASA-100 project. Last month, Kyrgyzstan’s biggest hydropower station, Toktogul, broke down.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Protests against rising prices broke out in at least five regional towns in Azerbaijan, the most serious and widespread civil unrest linked to an economic downturn that has shaken Central Asia and the South Caucasus over the past 18 months.
In Siyazan, about an hour’s drive north of Baku, heavily armed riot police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at crowds of young men who pelted them with stones. Later, reports said that at least 50 people had been detained by the police.
Footage shot on mobile phones and released on the opposition Meydan website showed police in full body armour carrying shields backed up by armoured vehicles marching towards groups of young men.
In other protests in regional towns, groups of men argued with officials and complained about losing jobs and a drop in living standards.
The following day, the Azerbaijani authorities released a statement that blamed various opposition parties for organising the protests. Azerbaijan’s opposition, which has seen its ranks thinned by a series of arrests and imprisonments over the past couple of years, said that the protests had been spontaneous.
Hours later the government appeared to back down over one of the protesters’ main demands — to stop prices from rising — by ordering a VAT exemption on flour and wheat.
A sharp fall in oil prices has hit Azerbaijan hard. It devalued its manat currency twice last year, halving its value. The government has also cut welfare and infrastructure projects.
There have been small-scale protests in Azerbaijan and in Georgia and Armenia, but these were the most violent and widespread.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 13 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s parliament is considering changes to the constitution that will, effectively, cement control of the country under President Emomali Rakhmon and his family.
Local media reported that MPs were looking into scrapping term limits for the president and also lowering the minimum age of presidential candidates to 30 from 35.
This second potential amendment would mean that Rakhmon’s son, Rustam, would be eligible to take over as president in 2020 when the next presidential election is due. He will be 33 in 2020.
A Dushanbe-based analyst who asked to remain anonymous said: “Both Rakhmon and his son will be eligible for presidency in 2020. I think, they want to keep both doors open and the decision will be taken only in 2020 according to situation and condition, as well as on how the incumbent president feels.”
Human rights and democracy group have accused Mr Rakhmon, who has been president since the 1990s, of acting as an autocrat,
imprisoning opposition leaders and cracking down on dissent. But governments, both from the West and also Russia and China, have seemingly preferred to see a strong Mr Rakhmon remain in power and act as a bulwark against any northern momentum from the Taliban in Afghanistan.
And most people in Tajikistan appear to support the status quo. “We need stability in the country,” said a man in his 50s walking in Dushanbe. “I don’t care who is the President, I just don’t want any war.”
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – It doesn’t happen often that a parliament asks the president to order its dissolution and call for elections. But in Kazakhstan, MPs feel they have fulfilled their obligations and, with one voice apparently, asked for an early vote.
The economic downturn could potentially lead to the formation of organised opposition in Kazakhstan and the calling of snap presidential elections last year and, in a similar fashion, this year would prevent dissent.
Although it was the MPs calling for it, the decision to call for early elections came from the top. The elite wants to consolidate its power within the various political institutions in light of a prospective transition.
President Nurtsultan Nazarbayev has indicated that he is likely to hand over to a successor at the end of his current term as president in 2020. If the transition goes as planned, the successor will be chosen from the political elite that is currently in charge of the major institutional positions.
The name of the new speaker of the Majilis and the percentage of seats that go to the ruling Nur Otan party are the two main things to monitor.
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(Editorial from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Remittances to Armenia fell by 22% in November 2015 compared to November 2014, media reported quoting the Central Bank. The majority of the remittances came from Russia which is labouring under a recession triggered by the fall in oil and Western sanctions.
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(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)
JAN. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Apparently putting a brave face on an increasingly poor economic outlook, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev said at a government meeting that the country’s GDP had actually grown last year by one percentage point. He also said that Azerbaijan needed to reduce its dependency on oil, something that most analysts have been urging for some time.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)