Author Archives: admin

Azerbaijani soldier dies in N-K

FEB. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijani officials said that one of its soldiers had died during a shoot- out with Armenian forces in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. They also said that three Armenian soldiers had died in fighting, a claim that the Armenia backed government of the region denied. A cease-fire between Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed fighters around Nagorno-Karabakh is looking increasingly fragile.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Editorial: Tajik place names

FEB. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – National identity for the countries of Central Asia is still a major issue, far more so than for their neighbours in the South Caucasus.

When independence was thrust on the five Central Asian states in 1991, the leaders of these newly created countries had to build a sense of nation- hood from scratch.

And so they turned to their history books. They dug up some famous names from the past and wrote them up as national heroes and icons.

For Tajikistan, the most significant national hero was Ismail Somoni, the founder of the Samanid dynasty. Tajik officials have pinned their national story, the narrative that they use to give people a sense of nationhood, around the Samanid dynasty. A statue of Somoni dominates central Dushanbe and the national airline and currency are all named after him, as are a host of other institutions and buildings.

Branding is important, even for a country, and Pres. Emomali Rakhmon is probably right to pursue it. He has to make sure, though, that branding doesn’t distract from governing.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Kazakhstan releases activist

FEB. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Serikzhan Mambetalin, a Kazakh opposition activist, was freed from prison after issuing an apology for inciting ethnic hatred. Mambetalin and his colleague, Ermek Narymbayev, were jailed at the end of January. Mambetalin’s lawyer told RFE/RL that his appeal process was still ongoing. The Kazakh authorities have clamped down on the country’s beleaguered opposition as the economy has worsened.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Food prices inflate in Kazakhstan

FEB. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised food price inflation in Kazakhstan measured 11.6% for the 12-months to the end of January, the country’s statistics service said. The data highlights just how fast prices have risen in Kazakhstan. It devalued its currency last year, forcing up prices and salaries.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Exxon bets on Kazakh oil field

FEB. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — US oil company ExxonMobil said that it still thinks the giant Kashagan oil field in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea will re-start production by the end of the year. ExxonMobil also said Kashagan will be one of its four key start-up projects for 2016. Other estimates forecast that repairs to essential pipeline infrastructure could drag on until 2017. ExxonMobil owns 16.81% in the international venture that operates Kashagan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Armenia’s population sinks below 3 million

JAN. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Emigration from Armenia shrunk its population below 3m for the first time since the 1970s, a psychologically-important threshold and a statistic that highlights a population outflow trend across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Armenia’s statistics agency said that the population fell in 2015 by 12,000 people to 2,998,600 people — the lowest level since 1977.

It’s also more evidence of a trend which has seen Armenia’s population shrink by 36,000 in the past five years and by 643,000 since 1991 when it became independent from the Soviet Union.

Armenia has large diaspora populations in France, Russia, the United States and across the Middle East. Most of the outflow is driven by people looking to join relatives in these countries and boost their job prospects.

One of the biggest problems for Armenian policymakers is that most of the people leaving Armenia are young and well-educated. This puts pressure on Armenia’s system with its aging population.

In 2013, the government ordered the State Statistics Committee to investigate the causes and results of this declining population.

There has been some inflow into Armenia over the past few years with ethnic Armenians who had previously lived in Aleppo, Syria, fleeing a civil war.

The Armenian government has accepted around 16,000 refugees from Syria.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

S+p downgrades Azerbaijan’s debt status

JAN. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Azerbaijan’s debt status to junk and said that its economy would contract for the first time in a decade. The downgrade from BBB- to BB+ comes off the back of a 35% collapse in the value of the Azerbaijani manat, growing internal dissatisfaction and concern over disappearing jobs. Azerbaijan is reliant on oil exports for revenues.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Chaarat finds gold in Kyrgyzstan

FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — British Virgin Island-registered Chaarat Gold completed a feasibility study for a gold mine it is exploring in north-west Kyrgyzstan. The mine is Chaarat’s only asset. Dekel Golan, Chaarat’s CEO, said in an interview that the study revealed low production costs (around $650/troy ounce, including the government tax), which means the company will go ahead with the project.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Business comment: Central Bank intrigue in Kazakhstan

FEB. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In Kazakhstan, the Central Bank resumed its work as the country’s financial regulator after a three-month hiatus, increasing interest rates by 1 percentage point to 17%.

Daniyar Akishev, the Central Banker, is at the helm again, it seems. He even ordered a handful of interventions in the currency market in January, something he had ruled out since his appointment last November.

Now, Kazakhstan watchers expect monetary policy to become more stable and predictable in the coming months. The next policy meeting will be held in six weeks, one week before a parliamentary election on March 20.

Still, many don’t see Mr Akishev’s position as an independent one. He is a seasoned Central Bank employee, but it is clear that he is not as free as many Western Central Bankers are.

A recent symbolic move could corroborate this view. This week, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed a decree that makes the Central Banker’s signature on the back of banknotes redundant.

Only eagles, monuments and the President’s handprint will continue to feature in Kazakhstan’s colourful currency.

The Central Banker’s signature is a convention that most countries in the world adopt.

Kazakhstan will now join a handful of countries that don’t feature their Central Banker’s signature on banknotes. This group includes China, Japan and Uzbekistan.

This might be, essentially, a final step by the Kazakh government to strip the Central Bank of the independence it gained under former governor Grigory Marchenko who left in 2013.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Georgia’s GDP slows

JAN. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s GDP grew by 2.8% in 2015, down from 4.6% in 2014, the national statistics office said. This was around half predictions at the beginning of the year and was the lowest annual growth rate since 2009, when the Global Financial Crisis dented growth around the world. Georgia’s government has said that it expects growth of around 3% in 2016.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)