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Uzbekistan finishes railway

FEB. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek officials said that work on a $1.63b railway section in the Fergana Valley had been completed, meaning that trains can now travel from Tashkent without having to pass through Tajikistan.

Although the cost of the 123km track is high, driven up by kilometres of tunnels and bridges that were needed to breach the mountainous terrain, for Uzbekistan cutting out the irritation of having to deal with Tajikistan makes it worth it.

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been at loggerheads since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

At its core, Uzbekistan worried about Tajik plans to build hydropower dams across rivers that feed Uzbekistan’s cotton crops. Tajikistan doesn’t like Uzbekistan’s unilateral stance.

This impacted rail traffic, which steadily dropped off.

The World Bank estimated the route will transport 600,000 people and 5 tonnes of freight every year. The project also underlines the financial might of China in the region. It paid $350m of the cost of the project, the World Bank paid $190m and the Uzbek government covered the rest.

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(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Belarus frees Tajik opposition

FEB. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The authorities in Belarus have released a Tajik woman linked to the opposition Group 24, media reported, a move that will irritate Tajikistan’s government. Police detained Shabnam Hudoidodov when she entered Belarus in June 2015. She has now been given refugee status. The Tajik authorities have made chasing opposition groups a priority.

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(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

Armenia receives arms loan

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia has agreed to give Armenia a $200m loan to buy weapons from Russian arms manufacturers, media reported. Under the terms of the deal, Armenia will use the loan to pay for Smerch rocket launchers, Igla-S air-defense systems, radar-jamming systems, sniper rifles, and armoured vehicles. Armenia will pay for 10% of the weapons, while Russia’s credit would cover the rest. Armenia is still at war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The day after the deal was signed, Azerbaijan said that it had made a formal complaint to Russia that its arms deal with Armenia would upset the delicate military equilibrium in the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

 

Azerbaijan’s President pays visit to Tehran

FEB. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev flew to Tehran for talks with his Iranian counterparts. Media reported that the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on oil and gas projects.

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(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

Tajik students protest outside EU offices

FEB. 20 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — In a move reminiscent of protests organised by the authorities in Russia to hound government opponents and envoys of countries that the Kremlin had fallen out with, Tajik students demonstrated outside the Turkish and EU diplomatic missions in Dushanbe.

Around 70 students shouted slogans accusing Turkey and EU countries of allowing members of the banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) to hold meetings.

“Bring the traitors to the homeland” they shouted. “We came here to express our dissatisfaction with the fact that the traitors are given the opportunity to organize protest meetings (abroad).”

Reports from northern Tajikistan also said a group of students had protested outside the office of the OSCE, Europe’s democracy and human rights watchdog, in Khujand.

Students have previously demonstrated against the IRPT, although they have denied that they had been organised and paid by the government to mount the protests.

This explanation, though, didn’t sit with most analysts’ reading of the demonstrations. In Dushanbe, an analyst who asked to remain anonymous, told The Conway Bulletin’s Dushanbe correspondent that the authorities must have organised the demonstration as no protest could take place without their approval.

“Tajik authorities do not understand that Western countries and Turkey will not be affected by such protests and will not extradite the political refugees,” said the analyst.

Other observers likened the organised protests to Nashi, the youth movement organised by the Kremlin in the late 2000s to hound its enemies. Well funded and single- minded, Nashi gained notoriety for its determined and lengthy demonstrations against foreign ambassadors and democracy advocates.

Last year, the Tajik government outlawed the IRPT, the country’s only formal opposition party. Human rights groups have complained that the government aims to crack down on free speech.

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(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

Azerbaijan cancels $16.5b petrochemical project

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company SOCAR said it had halted a multi-billion dollar project to develop the OGPC petrochemical complex at Sangachal, 40km south of Baku, because of sustained low oil prices, dealing a major blow to the country’s economic outlook.

SOCAR’s vice president Tofig Gahramanov said the company had stopped construction on the complex that was once valued at $16.5b and feted as the project that would transform Azerbaijan into the region’s biggest producer of refined products.

“We can say that active work on the OGPC project has been temporarily frozen,” Mr Gahramanov told Reuters in an interview.

Last month, in Kazakhstan, South Korea’s LG Chem cancelled a $4.2b project to build a petrochemical plant on the Caspian Sea coast.

Initially, the OGPC project near Baku, included an oil refinery which was later dropped, bringing the cost of construction down to $7b.

Japan’s Mitsui signed a preliminary memorandum to take part in the project last year. Last year, the Britain-based unit of US’ Fluor Group was selected as the lead contractor on the project. Fluor UK declined to comment when contacted by The Conway Bulletin.

The economic downturn has hit Azerbaijan hard. The manat currency has lost around 50% of its value and, with oil prices still low, the project was simply too costly for the state budget.

And the impact of SOCAR’s decision to freeze, or scrap, plans to build the petrochemical complex will be felt far and wide.

This was one of the biggest projects in the region and dozens of Western companies will have been lined up to work on it.

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(News report from Issue No. 269, published on  Feb. 26 2016)

 

Armenia changes position over N-K

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia plans to change its military doctrine around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh from a static defence philosophy to a more active philosophy, Radio Free Europe reported quoting a deputy Armenian defence minister at an OSCE meeting in Vienna. It didn’t give any more details on what this change of philosophy may mean although it could aggravate an already tense stand-off with Azerbaijan around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

Tajikistan raises interest rate

FEB. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 9%, its first rise since December 2014. It said it needed to try to protect the value of its somoni currency which has lost around half its value over the past year. A recession in Russia has hit Tajikistan hard, as its economy relies on remittances sent back by workers living in Russia.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

Iranians welcome Georgia’s new visa rules

FEB. 25 2016, TBILISI (The Conway Bulletin) — Iranians already living in Tbilisi have welcomed Georgia’s decision to lift visa restrictions.

Over the last six years, Iranian restaurants, shops and travel agencies have sprung up along the streets of Georgia’s capital. Iranians had viewed Georgia as a soft way around sanctions and also as a place to taste a more Western lifestyle. And Georgia, in turn, had welcomed the tourists and businessmen from Iran, even dropping visa restrictions in 2011 before, under US pressure, re-imposing them two years later.

Like the rest of the South Caucasus region, Iran wants to expand and strengthen its relations with Georgia. Now, with sanctions on Iran being lifted earlier this year, Georgia’s government said this month that it had lifted visa rules.

Iranians, with their distinct hair- styles and tighter, more colourful clothes compared to the dowdy black favoured by Georgians, an increasingly frequent sight in Georgia.

Most welcomed improved ties between Georgia and Iran.

Sahar, a 40-year-old Iranian living in Tbilisi was working in a bar.

“The visa free regime is a first step in strengthening regional cooperation, and was initiated by president Rouhani. He thinks it’s important that life of its citizens living outside of Iran is not difficult. And he sees it as a first step in increased economic relations,” she said between pouring glasses of beer for her customers.

Sahar, who applied for refugee status a year ago, is happy about the developments said that she had been living in Georgia for three years and that relaxing the visa system would increase the amount if Iranians travelling to Georgia.

“Tbilisi is similar, architecturally, to Tehran, I feel at home. But at least here I can be myself, be free,” she said. “My friends feel the same, a lot of them are talking about visiting Georgia for a few months, to breath, to get some air.”

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

 

Azerbaijan and Russia resume oil flow

FEB. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan and Russia agreed to resume shipments of oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline on March 1. The agreement ends weeks of negotiations over the restart of oil supplies. Oil flows along the the pipeline give a decent insight into the state of Azerbaijani- Russian relations. Over the past few years, oil flows have been a stop start affair but now appear to have steadied, much like bilateral relations, at around 1.4m tonnes per year.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)